Godye Scaro X9 (OP)
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July 20, 2014, 10:07:22 AM |
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For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?
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Ibian
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July 20, 2014, 10:10:35 AM |
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Bitcoiners.
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Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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negafen
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July 20, 2014, 01:44:44 PM |
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What is your reasoning for the assessment above? Astrologer.
I am thinking the same, Astrologer has the same chance as anyone else predicting bitcoin price.
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K128kevin2
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July 20, 2014, 02:06:21 PM |
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I would say a computer programmer who has studied graph theory and graphs of social networks. Here is my reasoning:
As a computer programmer, they have some insight into the security and strength of the actual bitcoin protocol. The most important aspect, however, is the knowledge of graph theory and graphs of social networks (which mathematicians may have as well). The spreading popularity of bitcoin among consumers and businesses is very similar to the spreading popularity of any other product. If you study the manner in which, for example, Hush Puppies shoes became wildly popular very quickly in the mid 1990s, this will give you insight into the manner in which bitcoin adoption will spread (and the price of bitcoin in the long-term is mostly contingent on its popularity and use as a currency).
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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July 20, 2014, 02:09:30 PM |
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A computer engineer that can make Bitcoin so easy to secure, any Grandmother could do it as easily as using a checkbook.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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oda.krell
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July 20, 2014, 02:13:39 PM |
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Depends on the time frame of your prediction. For short to mid term predictions I take classical TA cut down to it's mathematical bones any day over the alternatives. For longer term predictions, forecasting techniques with a bit of fundamental analysis thrown in, probably. So, quants, I suppose, but possibly creative use of methods from other fields as well because the complete picture of our market history seems rather unprecedented to me, so any profession using statistical modeling and/or machine learning seems like a good bet.
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Tzupy
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July 20, 2014, 02:56:10 PM |
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Exchange insider, whatever the profession. Has access to the most relevant information.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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FUR11
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FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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July 20, 2014, 05:39:45 PM |
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I'd say dice-makers. Do they have some special name? But seriously. The only thing you can to is to decide on whether you believe bitcoin will succeed (at least until a certain point in time) and then draw a logarithmic curve to that point. That really seems to be the best you can do... It sounds simple, but even Risto's predictions are effectively based on that method!
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gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht
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July 20, 2014, 05:43:49 PM |
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PinkRanger
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July 20, 2014, 05:50:21 PM |
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Someone in finance has the best chances of being able to predict the price of bitcoin over time as they have experience in analyzing financial markets
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Dalmar
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July 20, 2014, 05:50:38 PM |
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NSA agent with access to the bank balances of all the major exchanges.
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 06:34:52 PM |
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Everyone can predict that the only long term direction for bitcoin is up!!!
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 06:39:24 PM |
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i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 06:41:24 PM |
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i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
What exactly do you do???
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 06:57:27 PM |
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probably shouldnt say "exactly" but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago.
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 07:00:16 PM |
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I guess you are daytrading or something, right?
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 07:18:44 PM |
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tbh, its more like week or month trading at this point.
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Erdogan
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July 20, 2014, 07:34:14 PM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
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vuduchyld
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July 20, 2014, 11:53:48 PM |
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Philosopher King
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johnyj
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Beyond Imagination
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July 21, 2014, 01:39:37 AM |
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Hacker
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FNG
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July 21, 2014, 02:40:00 AM |
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Bitcoin fund manager
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tooil
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July 21, 2014, 02:47:11 AM |
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Since everyone here is making up stuffs without reasoning, I will do the same.
Meat packer.
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600watt
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July 21, 2014, 06:07:25 AM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
this. in this order.
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bajlox
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July 21, 2014, 06:39:26 AM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
this. in this order. You forgot the weather man he can predict well
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Erdogan
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July 21, 2014, 10:13:35 AM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
this. in this order. You forgot the weather man he can predict well Nah, only for stocks and GDP.
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r0ach
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July 21, 2014, 02:28:23 PM |
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market manipulator conman russian cyber thief chinaman
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Boba
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July 22, 2014, 08:43:36 AM |
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Roller coaster operator
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Febo
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July 22, 2014, 08:19:29 PM |
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Teological
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RobertDJ
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July 22, 2014, 08:22:28 PM |
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Most likely the economist. He can rely on the other professions to get detailed information about bitcoin, however he has the experience in predicting prices over time and the ability to spot good investments.
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elux
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July 22, 2014, 10:35:02 PM |
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For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?
This feels a bit like asking which profession is better for building a house. Bricklayer, carpenter, plumber or electrician? (Pick one.) You can do better with hammer and saw than hammer alone. I put my money on applied bayesian decision theory with mathematics, psychology, computer science, programming, behavioral economics and game theory. Accurate time series forecasting is hard. Instead, think big picture: Divide the utility of Bitcoin by the chance of success. Conclusion: Bitcoin is undervalued. Prediction for the price of Bitcoin over time: Up.
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ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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July 23, 2014, 12:27:25 AM |
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For example, if there was a psychologist
It's a clinical psych iatrist, the one with the white coat and an injection needle. It's true, ask Risto he'll confirm it.
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thew3apon
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July 23, 2014, 12:36:50 PM |
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The big miners.
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kokojie
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July 23, 2014, 02:56:26 PM |
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Wallstreet traders, they can predict the price, and have the money to make it true.
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btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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bitsmichel
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July 23, 2014, 03:44:44 PM |
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The big miners.
I think so too, these are probably a few who can do relatively good price predictions.
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Wandererfromthenorth
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July 23, 2014, 09:50:08 PM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
Well done sir
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Erdogan
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July 24, 2014, 12:37:51 AM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
Well done sir
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transient858
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July 24, 2014, 03:05:49 AM |
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Just about anyone and his dog can predict the price when accuracy is not needed and there is no consequence of being wrong.
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shmadz
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@theshmadz
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July 24, 2014, 03:58:56 AM |
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Just about anyone and his dog can predict the price when accuracy is not needed and there is no consequence of being wrong.
Just like anyone and his dog can post useless crap on the internet and there is no consequence of being wrong. Best profession is profiteer, btw. This space is changing quickly enough that simply by staying current gives you a significant advantage over laggards.
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"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
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EricTyle
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July 24, 2014, 05:07:12 AM |
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probably shouldnt say "exactly" but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago. So did you actually make a profit?
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azguard
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Crypto-News.net: News from Crypto World
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July 24, 2014, 06:20:55 AM |
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Wallstreet traders, they can predict the price, and have the money to make it true.
Adding to the list big governments that can also influence in BTC price seem like some are already involved in this this will be bad. Never the less this can also influence in price goes up in some point. Question is what to do keep invest or sell.
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