Godye Scaro X9 (OP)
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July 20, 2014, 10:07:22 AM |
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For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?
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Ibian
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July 20, 2014, 10:10:35 AM |
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Bitcoiners.
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Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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negafen
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July 20, 2014, 01:44:44 PM |
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What is your reasoning for the assessment above? Astrologer.
I am thinking the same, Astrologer has the same chance as anyone else predicting bitcoin price.
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K128kevin2
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July 20, 2014, 02:06:21 PM |
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I would say a computer programmer who has studied graph theory and graphs of social networks. Here is my reasoning:
As a computer programmer, they have some insight into the security and strength of the actual bitcoin protocol. The most important aspect, however, is the knowledge of graph theory and graphs of social networks (which mathematicians may have as well). The spreading popularity of bitcoin among consumers and businesses is very similar to the spreading popularity of any other product. If you study the manner in which, for example, Hush Puppies shoes became wildly popular very quickly in the mid 1990s, this will give you insight into the manner in which bitcoin adoption will spread (and the price of bitcoin in the long-term is mostly contingent on its popularity and use as a currency).
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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July 20, 2014, 02:09:30 PM |
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A computer engineer that can make Bitcoin so easy to secure, any Grandmother could do it as easily as using a checkbook.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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oda.krell
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July 20, 2014, 02:13:39 PM |
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Depends on the time frame of your prediction. For short to mid term predictions I take classical TA cut down to it's mathematical bones any day over the alternatives. For longer term predictions, forecasting techniques with a bit of fundamental analysis thrown in, probably. So, quants, I suppose, but possibly creative use of methods from other fields as well because the complete picture of our market history seems rather unprecedented to me, so any profession using statistical modeling and/or machine learning seems like a good bet.
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Tzupy
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July 20, 2014, 02:56:10 PM |
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Exchange insider, whatever the profession. Has access to the most relevant information.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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FUR11
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FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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July 20, 2014, 05:39:45 PM |
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I'd say dice-makers. Do they have some special name? But seriously. The only thing you can to is to decide on whether you believe bitcoin will succeed (at least until a certain point in time) and then draw a logarithmic curve to that point. That really seems to be the best you can do... It sounds simple, but even Risto's predictions are effectively based on that method!
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gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht
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July 20, 2014, 05:43:49 PM |
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PinkRanger
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July 20, 2014, 05:50:21 PM |
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Someone in finance has the best chances of being able to predict the price of bitcoin over time as they have experience in analyzing financial markets
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Dalmar
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July 20, 2014, 05:50:38 PM |
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NSA agent with access to the bank balances of all the major exchanges.
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 06:34:52 PM |
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Everyone can predict that the only long term direction for bitcoin is up!!!
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 06:39:24 PM |
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i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 06:41:24 PM |
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i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
What exactly do you do???
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 06:57:27 PM |
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probably shouldnt say "exactly" ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago.
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alexeft
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July 20, 2014, 07:00:16 PM |
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I guess you are daytrading or something, right?
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bucktotal
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July 20, 2014, 07:18:44 PM |
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tbh, its more like week or month trading at this point.
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Erdogan
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July 20, 2014, 07:34:14 PM |
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Astronauts Locomotive drivers Bull riders Bear hunters
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