Anyone following the ebola outbreak?

[bryant.coleman]

Research team says migrating fruit bats responsible for outbreak:

"The largest-ever outbreak of Ebola was triggered by a toddler's chance contact with a single infected bat, a team of international researchers will reveal, after a major investigation of the origins of the deadly disease now ravaging Guinea, Liberia, Ivory Coast and Nigeria."

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/23/ebola-outbreak-blamed-on-fruit-bats-africa

Nature strikes back against deforestation. 

Ebola is spread through contact with the Little collared fruit bat or the Franquet's epauletted fruit bat. Earlier, both these bats used to reside in remote caverns, deep inside the rainforest. But as the population increased, people began penetrating in to the forest more and more, resulting in the complete destruction of the bats' habitat. The first Ebola infection in this outbreak occurred in a village, which is very close to recently deforested land.

[itsAj]

"Clinicians working in Liberia have informed WHO that 2 doctors and 1 nurse have now received the experimental Ebola therapy, ZMapp.
The nurse and one of the doctors show a marked improvement. The condition of the second doctor is serious but has improved somewhat.
According to the manufacturer, the very limited supplies of this experimental medicine are now exhausted."


http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/21-august-2014/en/

I think the important point is the fact that the medicine/antidote works. With it working it is possible to make more of this medicine in order to treat more people who have contracted this disease. As it stands now, anyone who contracts this disease is almost certain to die from it so any medical advancement is good news.

Unfortunately nobody can yet say does it work or not (and what possible harmful side effects it has). It has now tested only with five humans. And about 50 % of patiens will survive anyway (without ZMapp).

I don't think the survival rate is that high, I though it was almost certain to kill a victim (I may be wrong on this). You are right to say it has been tested/used on very few people, but preliminary signs are that it at least somewhat works. The side effects would likely be ignored if the death rate of people that contract ebola are as high as I believe them to be.

[AnonyMint]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Big picture on ebola, pandemics and the resulting Hajnal line + socialism + propaganda
From:    AnonyMint
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The quality of journalism has declined. The following linked article entirely misses the hallmark of pandemics and plagues in that although HIV may be as virulent and Influenza as contagious, neither are simultaneously highly virulent and highly contagious.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/17/viruses-scarier-than-ebola_n_5683223.html

Luckily so far ebola's mode of transmission is apparently not yet airborne (or not enough) to be a threat to western civilization.

But mutation is possible and there are numerous strains of hemorrhagic fevers, as well other competing pathogens. The Black Death plagues that killed most of Europe's population and spread by rodents seem less likely to impact the world now as agriculture is no longer primarily manual labor. Nature culled the overpopulation in Europe in order to raise the wages and productivity of mankind. Thus perhaps the causative history for why Europe favors birth control, late marriage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajnal_line), and population control propaganda.

http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2013/11/european-asian-divergence-predates.html

http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-future-belongs-to-those-that-show-up/

Result of "Legal Equality for Women":


http://blog.jim.com/culture/the-false-life-plan/  <--- agree only that cathedral education should stop & let diversity thus fitness bloom
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3000 (about hypergamy and the PUA game)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934 (the false life plan is a dead end)
http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-cure-for-iq-shredders/  <--- top-down control is never the solution

But it also cheapened life.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague#Second_outbreak

Black Death, the infamous pandemic of bubonic plague, hit in 1347, killing a third of the human population. It is believed that society subsequently became more violent as the mass mortality rate cheapened life and thus increased warfare, crime, popular revolt, waves of flagellants, and persecution

There is a new mosquito spread virus that appears to also spread as an STD.

Some sort of mutation along those lines is what will drive the next pandemic on cycle for 2019.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/07/plague-cycle/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/06/war-plagues-earthquakes/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/11/crimea-was-the-origin-of-the-black-death-that-killed-50-of-europe/


Another culling of the population is unfortunately perhaps necessary because the vast majority of people are not ready to be productive in the Knowledge Age as the Industrial Age is dying (China swallowed that zero profit oversupply of industrial capacity), otherwise we will end up with a Dark Age of circling the toilet bowl socialism.

Economic Devastation and the Coming Knowledge Age:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg6065144#msg6065144

[DhaniBoy]

why there no medicine can cure that ebola
hopefully there are medicine can cure it
maybe some scientist can find medicine of this desease
hopefully ...

[Balthazar]

http://rt.com/news/181864-russian-virologists-ebola-laboratory/

[Swordsoffreedom]

More ebola news, still spreading I wonder how long until the initial stages of transmission end.
Two new cases of Ebola reported in Democratic Republic of Congo
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/24/6063027/ebola-virus-found-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

The Ebola outbreak has been confined to West Africa: Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, and Guinea. Now a fifth country — the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa — appears to be battling the virus.

The DRC health minister, Dr. Felix Kabange Numbi, says two people have just died from Ebola during a deadly hemorrhagic fever outbreak in a remote, northwestern region of the country. According to reports, there were 13 deaths in total.

Numbi says the outbreak in his country has "nothing to do with the one in West Africa," according to the Associated Press. But the World Health Organization says it is waiting to confirm the DRC's findings. In its own labs, it will test to find out which of the five strains of the Ebola virus afflicted the Congolese and whether they match the strain circulating in West Africa, known as Zaire ebolavirus.



At least it still looks containable.

[RedDiamond]

I don't think the survival rate is that high, I though it was almost certain to kill a victim (I may be wrong on this). You are right to say it has been tested/used on very few people, but preliminary signs are that it at least somewhat works. The side effects would likely be ignored if the death rate of people that contract ebola are as high as I believe them to be.

According WHO it is almost 50%: "47% survive in this Ebola outbreak, the survival rate has been higher than previous outbreaks. "

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

[audereyy]

When i was flying to germany last week, they had a strong verification team at the airport, i saw 2 guys who were captured by that team and disappeared in an unknown direction

[RedDiamond]

"Clinicians working in Liberia have informed WHO that 2 doctors and 1 nurse have now received the experimental Ebola therapy, ZMapp.
The nurse and one of the doctors show a marked improvement. The condition of the second doctor is serious but has improved somewhat.
According to the manufacturer, the very limited supplies of this experimental medicine are now exhausted."


http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/21-august-2014/en/

I think the important point is the fact that the medicine/antidote works. With it working it is possible to make more of this medicine in order to treat more people who have contracted this disease. As it stands now, anyone who contracts this disease is almost certain to die from it so any medical advancement is good news.

Unfortunately nobody can yet say does it work or not (and what possible harmful side effects it has). It has now tested only with five humans. And about 50 % of patiens will survive anyway (without ZMapp).

Now one of these five ZMapp treated patients has died in Liberia: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/25/world/africa/ebola-outbreak/

[RedDiamond]

Unprecedented number of medical staff infected with Ebola: "To date, more than 240 health care workers have developed the disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, and more than 120 have died."

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/25-august-2014/en/

So almost 10% of detected cases are medical staff 

[kuroman]

More ebola news, still spreading I wonder how long until the initial stages of transmission end.
Two new cases of Ebola reported in Democratic Republic of Congo
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/24/6063027/ebola-virus-found-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

The Ebola outbreak has been confined to West Africa: Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, and Guinea. Now a fifth country — the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa — appears to be battling the virus.

The DRC health minister, Dr. Felix Kabange Numbi, says two people have just died from Ebola during a deadly hemorrhagic fever outbreak in a remote, northwestern region of the country. According to reports, there were 13 deaths in total.

Numbi says the outbreak in his country has "nothing to do with the one in West Africa," according to the Associated Press. But the World Health Organization says it is waiting to confirm the DRC's findings. In its own labs, it will test to find out which of the five strains of the Ebola virus afflicted the Congolese and whether they match the strain circulating in West Africa, known as Zaire ebolavirus.



At least it still looks containable.

First case was detected yesterday in Burkina Fasso from what I heard in the radio yesterday, but not the problem I think the the issue is the incubation period that last several weeks, which render the virus visibly indetectable for a certain period of time, you can have travelers with 0 symptoms moving around freely as the main dispositive in airports is infrared cameras that detects the fever for example

[bryant.coleman]

Ebola has been now reported from the province of Equatoria in the Democratic Republic of Congo. So far, two cases have been confirmed and this is the 7th known outbreak of Ebola in the DRC. According to the WHO, the viral strain is quite different from that seen in West Africa and therefore both the epidemics are not linked.

[itsAj]

I don't think the survival rate is that high, I though it was almost certain to kill a victim (I may be wrong on this). You are right to say it has been tested/used on very few people, but preliminary signs are that it at least somewhat works. The side effects would likely be ignored if the death rate of people that contract ebola are as high as I believe them to be.

According WHO it is almost 50%: "47% survive in this Ebola outbreak, the survival rate has been higher than previous outbreaks. "

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

That is interesting. I wonder what is different about the outbreak this time around. Even with a 50% survival rate, it is very hard to know before hand if you are one of the lucky 50% so you still have very little to lose by taking an experimental drug.

[RedDiamond]

That is interesting. I wonder what is different about the outbreak this time around. Even with a 50% survival rate, it is very hard to know before hand if you are one of the lucky 50% so you still have very little to lose by taking an experimental drug.

There are at least five different species of Ebolavirus. The virus causing the current outbreak is a member of the Zaire Ebolavirus (EBOV) lineage which has normally a very high case-fatality rate but maybe it has already changed so much that it is not so lethal anymore.

[Tzupy]

At last, Favipiravir is being tested:
http://www.dailytech.com/Second+ZMappTreated+Patient+Dies+of+Ebola+Supplies+Run+Out/article36429.htm

[RedDiamond]

At last, Favipiravir is being tested:
http://www.dailytech.com/Second+ZMappTreated+Patient+Dies+of+Ebola+Supplies+Run+Out/article36429.htm

Excellent article! Thank you for sharing.

[NewLiberty]

With the long incubation time, and the higher survival rate, it is actually more virulent and more dangerous in terms of pandemic potential.
Negative tests are not 100% conclusive in early stages (before antibody development), carriers can slip through most any checkpoint.
How will you know when it is too late for social isolation?

[Nemo1024]

Russia sent a special mobile laboratory and specialists virologists to Guinea as humanitarian aid. The situation looks grim.

[bryant.coleman]

Even before this outbreak, there was a severe shortage of qualified medical professionals in West Africa. And with the deaths and desertions which are occurring as a result of it, the healthcare sector there is close to collapsing. A large part of the doctors in Guinea, Liberia.etc are expats, mainly from countries such as India and Bangladesh. Many of the expats are moving back to their home nations, to escape from the epidemic. I feel that if these doctors were local citizens, then they might have stayed on and cared for the patients.

(Can't blame the local government though. They are putting huge amounts of money to create local doctors. But 9 out of 10 are migrating to the US or EU as soon as they get their medical degree). 

[itsAj]

That is interesting. I wonder what is different about the outbreak this time around. Even with a 50% survival rate, it is very hard to know before hand if you are one of the lucky 50% so you still have very little to lose by taking an experimental drug.

There are at least five different species of Ebolavirus. The virus causing the current outbreak is a member of the Zaire Ebolavirus (EBOV) lineage which has normally a very high case-fatality rate but maybe it has already changed so much that it is not so lethal anymore.

This may be possible. The problem with this theory is that natural selection will generally result in the strongest of anything surviving. This means that as the strains of the virus change and mutate they will likely be immune to antibiotics. (your have sound logic, but it is just bad for society).