So Who's Selling?

[SilenceDogreat]

On Thursday we watched the price dive from $617 to $597 over a 7-8 hour period - a relatively fast and steady drop.
In terms of Market Cap, this would have been a reduction of roughly $260M or ~420,000 BTC.

Within the past 2 hours there was another significant decline from $590 to $580...
which, again, might not seem like a lot in BTC/USD exchange terms - but as far as Market Cap goes that's a ~$130M difference (or ~220,000 BTC).

I understand Ethereum raised a significant amount in bitcoin and may have cashed out already.
The Bitlicense proposal and ban in Ecuador might have been contributing factors...
What else is happening right now though?  Has there been any major movements from the 'big wallets' that people follow?
If I was scared I'd say I'm scared.  I'm not.  Just trying to gain a better understanding.

Thoughts?

*probably should have posted this in Speculation, sorry*

[TaunSew]

The only time Bitcoin seems to be going up is due to speculation buying anytime there's "good news".  Like Newegg said it'ld accept Bitcoin and the Bitcoin went up by $30-40 very quickly but no way was that new users, it was existing holders buying more Bitcoin with anticipation that prices will be going up and therefore to sell at a gain.

Bitcoin needs a huge rush of capital, like back in November / December, to go up again.  Nobody knows when or if it will happen.

[m1rr0rm3]

Someone dropped over 7000 BTC on the open market and the price of BTC dropped from $600.00 to just under $568.00. Whom ever is doing this has accounts on all of the exchanges and is manipulating the market place by making the price fluctuate.

If you wanted to find out who was selling you could probably watch blockchain.info for their info.

[m1rr0rm3]

This person seems to be making money out of Bejing

Transactions that were relayed first by the ip 115.29.196.182

[tee-rex]

This person seems to be making money out of Bejing

Transactions that were relayed first by the ip 115.29.196.182

So some of the Chinese are secretly fixing their losses that they incurred when they had been buying at or near all time highs in November-December? If so, we could expect a prolonged fall with minor rebounds.

[wheresmycoin]

falling to $520

[tee-rex]

falling to $520

Could you give any reasons for thinking so and when is this going to happen? Or is it just your wishful thinking?

[wheresmycoin]

falling to $520

Could you give any reasons for thinking so and when is this going to happen? Or is it just your wishful thinking?

i posted in spculation, below is the link:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.155560

[FlyForFun]

This is just a temporary drop, some big miner want to sell some btc for paying off their electricity bills.

[devphp]

a) miners;
b) long term hodlers who buy at Overstock and other stores (technically they don't sell, but the payment processor for Overstock sells bticoins for fiat which has the same result);
c) impatient investors;
d) speculators who sell in hopes to buy cheaper later.
e) those who urgently need fiat for some reason;

[Sindelar1938]

Some whales managing the price and some miners selling
That said, the price is likely to go down further...

[tee-rex]

Some whales managing the price and some miners selling
That said, the price is likely to go down further...

It is more interesting to know for how long and how much the price is going down. Just saying that it will go down (or up for that matter) actually amounts to nothing once the movement has begun.

[devphp]

It is more interesting to know for how long and how much the price is going down. Just saying that it will go down (or up for that matter) actually amounts to nothing once the movement has begun.

Optimistic scenario:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=467191.msg8068282#msg8068282

Under a pessimistic scenario, the odds of which is less than 50%, it could go to $400-450 where there is a strong support. If it goes that low, it will take longer to rise to the old ATH, probably by the end of 2015 only.

[scryptasicminer]

Shorting small amount with tight stop.

[jcoin200]

Whale selling off and buying back in?  Thats what it seems like when the price goes back from 575 to 593 in just a few hours

[escrow.dude]

Whale selling off and buying back in?  Thats what it seems like when the price goes back from 575 to 593 in just a few hours

The price of bitcoin has moved much farther then that before in terms of percentages.

[BtcGains]

The price will continue to bounce up and down and the reason is simply because it's such an unreliable currency to predict.
Miners sell, investors panic-sell when miners sell and the bridge just goes from there until a good piece of news comes out and the price rises, then the process happens all over again.
It could be market dictation, but it isn't always the case

[TheButterZone]

Anyone selling under $1250, at a loss, is a moron.

[SilenceDogreat]

Optimistic scenario:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=467191.msg8068282#msg8068282

Under a pessimistic scenario, the odds of which is less than 50%, it could go to $400-450 where there is a strong support. If it goes that low, it will take longer to rise to the old ATH, probably by the end of 2015 only.

Extrapolating beyond 2014 is inherently going to be pretty unreliable.
I think your projections for the next 2 months are accurate though.

a) miners;
b) long term hodlers who buy at Overstock and other stores (technically they don't sell, but the payment processor for Overstock sells bticoins for fiat which has the same result);
c) impatient investors;
d) speculators who sell in hopes to buy cheaper later.
e) those who urgently need fiat for some reason;

Sure.  But this could be said for any recent time period really.
I was thinking more along the lines of what m1rr0rm3 proposed, larger volume selling from ? ? ?
...although you could certainly be correct.

Does this link work for other people?  https://blockchain.info/largest-recent-transactions - it doesn't for me.

[SunBin]

Merchant and miner do usually hold coin for long.