Will Bitcoin be around in 5 years? If so, what's its price?

[soccosocco]

Will Bitcoin be around in 5 years?
Yes of course 
If so, what's its price?
hmm, maybe Over $60,000 each

[1714763590]

1714763590

[1714763590]

1714763590

[1714763590]

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[vuduchyld]

Subject to change of course, and I realize many will disagree, but right now my long term price estimate is $2341, based on M2 calculations and my subjective take on utilization and velocity. I think most analysts that I have read overstate velocity massively by including mining transactions in velocity calculations.

With my current cost average, that means I am hoping for about a 5x total return. Not sure how long it will take, but I am guessing  between 5 and 7 years. So for me, bitcoin is not likely to represent life-changing money, but just another long-term investment with a great ROI.

That said, there is certainly potential both to the upside and downside of my current estimate (read: guess). I am wide open to new information.

What are M2 calculations and would they have accurately have predicted today's price if they were used three years ago?

M2 is a measure of the supply of money.  M1 measures the most liquid supply of money--basically physical money and demand deposits.  M2 is a slightly more broad measurement of the money supply that would include examples of money being used as a store of value, for example, in a money market fund.  M3 is even more broad, still, and accounts for other assets that bitcoin doesn't represent well.  Personally, I think bitcoin compares most favorably to the M2 money supply measurement.  I'm not certain of this, but I think m2 is usually 4-5x M1 at any given time.

You may have seen this article:  http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

I think it's pretty good, but I don't agree that all of the different items he brings up should be additive.  I think they are mostly components of the global M2.  I also think his velocity calculation probably includes mining transactions.  I thought he treated the whole m2 of some random country a little carelessly, but again, I think his thought processes were mostly in line with the way I was trying to track value and growth. 

The last time I ran the numbers, I performed a similar exercise to what the author of the article did.  After making a bunch of guesses and assumptions (I'm used to doing that because I'm a CVA--Certified Valuation Analyst, which is very microeconomic, not macroeconomic...I value small businesses.  That DOES NOT make me an expert in this kind of macro valuation!!!) I came up with a percentage of the M2 that I thought bitcoin could likely command in the next 5 years.  That number, divided by the number of coins that would be mined at the time I was forecasting, was $2341.

I can't stress enough that I am definitely not an expert.  I could be very, very wrong.  I do have an MBA and my CVA, but I honestly don't know how much that helps for something like this.

So would I have made appropriate calculations three years ago?  It's hard to say, because a lot of the work is pretty subjective.  Would I have been able to guess reasonably well about the adoption rates, the businesses who are using it, the pending ETF?  And if I had, would I have accurately converted that to bitcoin's current share of M2?  Maybe not.  But with every year of maturity, those predictions get a little easier to make.  But I'm open to being wrong.   

There are plenty of people who have made 100x or 200x return on bitcoin...or more.  Last time I calculated my cost average, it was $476.  I have bought more in the last 10 days on the dips, so my cost average is up, but I'll have to refigure again to know how much.  My opinion is that I was too late of an adopter to make ridiculous gains.  I missed out, obviously, on huge potential gains.  But I still think there is opportunity out there.  At 46, I'm probably older than most in this forum.  My financial path to a comfortable retirement is pretty much set.  So I'm only risking a small percentage of my net worth on bitcoin.  If I can get a 5x return, I'll be thrilled with that.  That is a HUGE investing success, contrary to what one might think.  Life-changing money doesn't happen to most of us. As information becomes more available, I may revise my opinion, buy more, hope for a better return, or even sell (although I don't see that anywhere NEAR the horizon right now...I'd almost rather HODL to zero, because even if I lose everything, this doesn't impact my personal plan).

As always, your mileage may vary.

[martinw79]

Yes.  $191k per coin @ 2019

[Febo]

I was looking at all the shit coins at the bottom of coinmarketcap and wondering if bitcoin will ever go the same way. Will new coins ever take bitcoin's place and push it lower and lower down the capitalization chart?

Nah, I'd be really puzzled if some coin ever throws bitcoin off of the first place. It's a pure question about adoption and exposure. And Bitcoin is leading by degrees of  magnitudes. Side chains may incorporate other coins, though.

I don't think bitcoin will be replaced by an altcoin in the future simply because its developement is not completed.
It could still be modified to fix or add any characteristic in order to let it stay in the first place among all the cryptocoins.

Is not about replaced. Bitcoin is not currently internet money as we all predict will be. I think one altcoin will become that. Bitcon will stay what t is now, some thinyg to store your wealth inside. like is Gold. Bitcoin needs much more inflation to become really net currency that people will love to spend and love to get salary in.

[devphp]

Yes, it will be in the $2500-$5000 range.

[boraf]

Lots of insane prediction here. The highest I hear from this sub forum is 5M per coin.

Why not make 1T per coin prediction?

[dyland]

Something in me says that if bitcoin becomes the pipeline for value in the world within five years, those with the thicker pipelines (more bitcoins) are going to be worth more. It's hard to estimate 5 years out, and I'm not even going to throw a number out there, but once you start seeing BTC prices on retail items in the grocery store, using the pipeline will be in very high demand.

[Ektra]

Subject to change of course, and I realize many will disagree, but right now my long term price estimate is $2341, based on M2 calculations and my subjective take on utilization and velocity. I think most analysts that I have read overstate velocity massively by including mining transactions in velocity calculations.

With my current cost average, that means I am hoping for about a 5x total return. Not sure how long it will take, but I am guessing  between 5 and 7 years. So for me, bitcoin is not likely to represent life-changing money, but just another long-term investment with a great ROI.

That said, there is certainly potential both to the upside and downside of my current estimate (read: guess). I am wide open to new information.

One relatively minor (by bitcoin standards) bubble with associated media coverage and your long term estimate will be easily surpassed and suddenly everyone will be contemplating 5 digits with seriousness. Of course, this is not guaranteed to happen, but I suspect if sufficient time passes without it happening, the all-or-nothing mentality of a lot of bitcoiners will tend to bring the price to the Nothing side of things, way before 5 years is up.

So while I support a sober valuation of BTC, honestly, if it fails to surpass a couple of grand in five years (that's as long as the entire lifetime of the blockchain so far!), bitcoin will be considered a failure, and far from reaching and staying at 2k, it will crumble to nothing.

[Patel]

Hmmm... question still remains.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

3853.85958348

[premium_domainer]

The price will probably stay in the $210-250 range for the next 10-12 years

lol.

if demand is started then price will be increase... merchants number is increasing day by day, it will hit around $6k / BTC in 2019.

[anonyymi]

My estimate Bitcoin will hit $600 this year. Maybe 2020 we can see finally five digit prices.

Winlevoss are putting up regulated marketplace Gemini and also a Bitcoin ETF (if they get good amount of investors, this will put the price of bitcoin to the moon).
When these start, there is no stopping of the price climbing.

[Chef Ramsay]

I can appreciate some peoples' guesses being extremely modest for the near term considering what happened last year and the start of this one but the Wink ETF is due before the end of the year and that alone will push us into the thousands, yes plural. The organic growth between now and then or whether the are whales running a new bull market w/ the absence of sellers sometime soon or on a regular basis for some time (purifying the market of sellers til the next big rally) things could already be on the move prior to the ETF going live.

[croato]

Sure it will be around, it is hard to kill something decentralised lol. Price? Who knowes, my best guess is somwhere in $100-$100K range.

[fonzie]

10-30$

[neurotypical]

10-30$

Oh cmon, dont ruin our optimism party. If Bitcoin is that low by then it means we survived WW4.

[Bralex]

See it could be anywhere between $1 and $1000 for some reason i just cannot see it going to these supid numbers some are saying lol people hardly want to buy them now why are they going to want to pay x amount of thousands? What am i missing 

[bcoinbilly]

 I predict it will have similar prices of that of Gold. Meaning it may reach an all time high of $2000 and no more. Even though bitcoin is not Gold, the markets will dictate as such with prices running within the same range as the precious metal.

The question is will the price not even matter and Bitcoin takes over as the official currency of the world 

[Patel]

I am thinking can't bitcoin coexist with the legacy financial system. Because it can either take it over, or it will fail. It's hard for me to see bitcoin value still high in 2019.

We have not seen any "here to stay" bitcoin companies besides coinbase, and maybe bitpay but I am skeptical about them.

All of these other companies that got media attention have not reached the point where you can see them around in 5 years. I expect 75% of them to go bust.

[cheekychap]

I am thinking can't bitcoin coexist with the legacy financial system. Because it can either take it over, or it will fail. It's hard for me to see bitcoin value still high in 2019.

We have not seen any "here to stay" bitcoin companies besides coinbase, and maybe bitpay but I am skeptical about them.

All of these other companies that got media attention have not reached the point where you can see them around in 5 years. I expect 75% of them to go bust.

I doubt it will ever fail, looking at the advantages it has over the existing system. I feel they will coexist.