I'd like to see evidence, hard evidence suggesting that people are not hoarding their BTC. SHOW ME, don't tell me that it's a fallacy that people won't spend an appreciating currency...numbers, charts, graphs, maths, trends, facts. Need more than Bitcoin bias...of which I already have plenty myself. I'd love nothing more...
Agreed--this is from the
MIT Report that I referenced in an earlier post...and initially seemed to address new Bitcoins only (this link shows updated language in lower left chart). This was later amended in the comments section, but still unclear as chart only seems to reference transactions within certain timeframes after initial mining...or after acquisition? This is the only piece of evidence I could find that points towards trending
BTC spending versus hoarding...although even this chart states that a US shutdown sparked hoarding in October 2013, causing a price spike.
Now let's talk about all coins generally...circulated coins if you will. The Blockchain charts paint a very different picture. With roughly 5 million BTC users, and transaction volume around 60,000 per day, we're looking at
1 transaction every three months per user...not exactly a vibrant economy. The total output volume chart down-trending is especially troubling:
https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume This shows that at the current float, only about 3-4% of all BTC is moving daily...what then, is the other 96% doing...? And keep in mind, that even of this 3-4%, not all of it is necessarily being spent...much of this volume is likely day-trading, and some transactions are users just moving their own
BTC from one wallet to another wallet they own.
Regardless, I suppose the larger question we should be addressing generally is...Why don't more people spend Bitcoin, and what will it take to change current trends?
To clarify assertions made earlier, I've never stated that no one will spend an appreciating currency, but it does seem like Bitcoin's appreciative nature is causing a large portion of the user base to hoard. Now to address these comments made on a couple of occasions:
Putting all of that aside, the implied argument that you seem to be making is that people won't spend an appreciating currency. That's easily proven false in two ways:
1) Computers/technology. People could wait until next year to get an even better, faster computer with more features for the same price. Yet they buy computers today. How can you explain that when their purchasing power is increasing over time? Obviously, increasing purchasing power does not discourage people from buying pieces of technology.
2) Investments/stocks. Anyone can easily increase their purchasing power over time by investing into stocks, mutual funds, real estate, etc. Yet, many choose not to. How can you explain the fact that people are buying ANYTHING beyond what is absolutely necessary to survive when they could instead be increasing their purchasing power by investment?
The whole argument that people won't spend an appreciating currency sounds great on the surface, but is really just a complete fallacy.
You are talking about Moore's Law--the cost of a unit decreases exponentially over time. People want instant gratification, or moreover...have a need that must be fulfilled near-term, like needing a new computer. The consumer gratification created by purchasing the product is enough to overcome the potential for increased purchasing power down the road...sometimes, other times people do wait, often for years before buying that new car or computer, until the product/technology reaches maturity and prices bottom out a bit. Not sure this applies seamlessly to spending or saving
BTC. Perhaps a more appropriate comparison would be to trading or holding quickly appreciating stocks.
I can't speak to why some people do or don't invest in stocks, real estate et al...we'd have to ask those people. What I can say is that people buy and do things that don't increase their purchasing power for myriad reasons. None of which explain the technical trends regarding BTC hoarding that seem to be apparent in the Blockchain charts. People seem to be viewing Bitcoin as a good long-term speculative investment and hodling (sorry, couldn't help myself), and they are generally choosing to make their purchases by some other means...for now.
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