Presenting the 670-day Bitcoin price cycle

[hacknoid]

OK, so many of us love looking at trends and graphs.  And for those that do, here is an interesting little tidbit I noticed yesterday.  Take it FWIW, but it's interesting, to say the least.

I was looking at the year-over-year exponential price graph as shown below:



Notice anything interesting?  2014 looks a lot more like 2012 than 2013.  And for that matter, 2013 looks a lot like 2011.
This becomes even more apparant if you adjust the data from the last 2 years to line up the peaks (adjust by 61 days):



Taking this data, I created a longer cycle graph.  I present to you - the Bitcoin 670-day price cycle!



Of course, with only two cycles to look at this means almost nothing, but I do find it interesting that it correlates better than trying to work in the 33-week cycle everyone talks about.  This trend also corresponds to a longer "development" phase between each major peak.  And it also means we are about 110 days from the start of the next run-up.

Have fun with it....

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[fonsie]

Of course, with only two cycles to look at this means almost nothing

^
And you better left it at that.

Would have saved you the time spent on painting those pictures above.

[fallinglantern]

It's definitely interesting to take a longer view on price movements over time. If the observations hold, we should be launching another bubble by year end. I'd be okay with that.

[fonsie]

Either everybody buys before the next bubble in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too early
Either everybody waits until the bubble begins in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too late

Either way it won't happen when it's expected and you should have bought before it actually happens.

[notme]

Either everybody buys before the next bubble in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too early
Either everybody waits until the bubble begins in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too late

Either way it won't happen when it's expected and you should have bought before it actually happens.

Or maybe, just maybe, the hundreds of thousands of individual actors with different priorities, beliefs, and understanding will somehow manage to behave differently from each other and the two camps cancel each other out, starting the bubble right on time.

[wobber]

While I respect the work you have done, I cannot help to say that we have too few data to say that bitcoin follows a certain cycle. The only path I see now is downwards, and not because bitcoin is overvalued or because it has not so many uses, but because our speculator friends freak out and sell.

1 Bitcoin should be, as of now, because of the economic set the world is in, at over 2000, more than gold. Actually I say gibberish, bitcoin should be used everywhere where people want freedom from the goverments, making the USD price irrelevant.

Stop using banks, VISA, Mastercard and Paypal and we'll have a new world.

[InwardContour]

I agree with this price cycle view, according to the charts we are about in the middle between the last bubble and the next one,
so let's just hold and wait for the ( I hope) huge rally of late 2014.

[fonsie]

Either everybody buys before the next bubble in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too early
Either everybody waits until the bubble begins in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too late

Either way it won't happen when it's expected and you should have bought before it actually happens.

Or maybe, just maybe, the hundreds of thousands of individual actors with different priorities, beliefs, and understanding will somehow manage to behave differently from each other and the two camps cancel each other out, starting the bubble right on time.

If all the involved actors would cancel each other, the prise would remain the same. But I get what you are saying, but you have to admit that it sounds quite stupid...

100 000 people equally spread 50/50, to buy exactly on the moment some chart predicted it would.

[ensurance982]

Wow, I don't really know if this should make us feel excited about an incoming bubble, a bit later than previously expected, or if we are now resorting to tweaking charts until they support what we want them to 

[hacknoid]

Wow, I don't really know if this should make us feel excited about an incoming bubble, a bit later than previously expected, or if we are now resorting to tweaking charts until they support what we want them to 

There seem to be two ways to do the analysis - analyze the fundamentals and determine where the price should be, then compare that to the real numbers, or look at history of actual numbers and apply trends to them, to see where we will be going.  My analysis above is clearly the latter, and simply an observation of the trend - I'll freely say that I have no clue where we are headed!  It'll be interesting to see if it follows the longer term trend.

Honestly, my gut reaction is I cannot see how Bitcoin price can follow any sort of predictable pattern.  There are just too many factors (news, regulation, speculation, legalization, banning, permitting, adoption, etc.) that would seem to have effect, but underlying it all is basic human psychology.  And maybe that is predictable to a certain extent - after a certain period of time, I believe we come to accept that the current price is reasonable, and so we can establish a new baseline.  And that probably takes a certain period of time.  Also, while people are crazy speculating and driving the price up people get distracted from building new technology and doing research.  When things settle down we get into a new period of innovation where people can focus again.

Are these quantifiable?  I don't know... I guess maybe we'll know better if the cycle repeats (670 days or something different).

[ensurance982]

Wow, I don't really know if this should make us feel excited about an incoming bubble, a bit later than previously expected, or if we are now resorting to tweaking charts until they support what we want them to 

There seem to be two ways to do the analysis - analyze the fundamentals and determine where the price should be, then compare that to the real numbers, or look at history of actual numbers and apply trends to them, to see where we will be going.  My analysis above is clearly the latter, and simply an observation of the trend - I'll freely say that I have no clue where we are headed!  It'll be interesting to see if it follows the longer term trend.

Honestly, my gut reaction is I cannot see how Bitcoin price can follow any sort of predictable pattern.  There are just too many factors (news, regulation, speculation, legalization, banning, permitting, adoption, etc.) that would seem to have effect, but underlying it all is basic human psychology.  And maybe that is predictable to a certain extent - after a certain period of time, I believe we come to accept that the current price is reasonable, and so we can establish a new baseline.  And that probably takes a certain period of time.  Also, while people are crazy speculating and driving the price up people get distracted from building new technology and doing research.  When things settle down we get into a new period of innovation where people can focus again.

Are these quantifiable?  I don't know... I guess maybe we'll know better if the cycle repeats (670 days or something different).

Didn't mean to rain on your parade! I think all those speculations are interesting and a lot of people have put effort in making one of their own. I don't know what'll come either, and can only hope for the best, so your guess is as good as mine. You did have some quite unique ideas.

[notme]

Either everybody buys before the next bubble in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too early
Either everybody waits until the bubble begins in anticipation of one -> bubble starts too late

Either way it won't happen when it's expected and you should have bought before it actually happens.

Or maybe, just maybe, the hundreds of thousands of individual actors with different priorities, beliefs, and understanding will somehow manage to behave differently from each other and the two camps cancel each other out, starting the bubble right on time.

If all the involved actors would cancel each other, the prise would remain the same. But I get what you are saying, but you have to admit that it sounds quite stupid...

100 000 people equally spread 50/50, to buy exactly on the moment some chart predicted it would.

I was trying to take your polar view and break it up to show you the actual continuum.   Don't just stare at the middle.  There are millions of shades of grey between black and white.

[fonsie]

All I was trying to say is that people are so focused on charts and what not for bubbles to appear, that they probably won't appear because of that.

That a new one will appear no doubt about it, but expecting it to happen x number of days in between, that's just silly.

[Anduck]

Correlates well, yes.. But with just so small amount of data it's quite easy to find matching charts.

[DjPxH]

Correlates well, yes.. But with just so small amount of data it's quite easy to find matching charts.

But hey, cut him some slack! People are always looking for patterns in the bitcoin charts. But this is a very well crafted example of it!

[hacknoid]

Didn't mean to rain on your parade! I think all those speculations are interesting and a lot of people have put effort in making one of their own. I don't know what'll come either, and can only hope for the best, so your guess is as good as mine. You did have some quite unique ideas.

Hey - no worries!  As I say - nobody really knows the future, and there certainly isn't enough information to draw any conclusions (and then there's the caveat that always applies - past results are not indicative of future performance).  I admit it's just an interesting pattern, and it just shows that maybe it's not a 33-week cycle that everyone is expecting.

[Febo]

2 cycles cant be a trend. you need to make at least 3.
so use year
2010&2011
2012&2013
2014&and just predict the year 2015 then.

Come on off to work!

[azguard]

Nice graph.

All to say is this from start of this 2014 year, to many big companies are involved in BTC story that can implement market price to change.

Think that end of this year and first quarter of next will balance place in long term.

[giveBTCpls]

Well see continued stability until dumbasses outside the BTC choo choo train realize they are late as big players jump in.

[wachtwoord]

Cool graph

As long as everyone takes this for what it is: a nice idea which needs further confirmation.