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Author Topic: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014?  (Read 5416 times)
tabnloz
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July 31, 2014, 11:27:02 AM
 #21

Actually it's different

Argentina has the money to pay but the payment is blocked by a court order.

Argentina has the money to pay as per the conditions that were agreed upon with 90% of its creditors.

The other 10% now are demanding that Argentina pay according to different rules.

If Argentina accept these new rules, the other 90% could also ask for the same rules, so that's what's causing the problem.

The 'different' rules being the ones that Argentina agreed to when it first sold the bonds.
The 10% want what they were promised.

Article on vulture funds here is Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-vulture-fund-forces-debt-default-by-argentina-20140731-zyy83.html
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minime
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July 31, 2014, 11:52:02 AM
 #22

no its not... its a total different story
inBitweTrust
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July 31, 2014, 12:05:28 PM
 #23

everything follows a similar pattern

there is a bear trap and argentina defaults...


Do you believe this is a Cyprus moment

I really do hope that Bitcoin grows in Argentina but this is different than Cyprus. Argentina has had many instances of hyper inflation and their citizens are already heavily adapted to investing in USD fiat to hedge against the peso. another Crysis will promote the adoption of Bitcoin but I doubt their will a mass flood of new users overnight. Than again if only 1% of the Argentinian population of 42.6million starts investing and using Bitcoin that can indeed cause a bubble.

Imagine 43k new bitcoin users hitting the exchanges overnight, damn ...

murraypaul
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July 31, 2014, 12:07:43 PM
 #24

Actually it's different

Argentina has the money to pay but the payment is blocked by a court order.

Argentina has the money to pay as per the conditions that were agreed upon with 90% of its creditors.

The other 10% now are demanding that Argentina pay according to different rules.

If Argentina accept these new rules, the other 90% could also ask for the same rules, so that's what's causing the problem.

The 'different' rules being the ones that Argentina agreed to when it first sold the bonds.
The 10% want what they were promised.

Article on vulture funds here is Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-vulture-fund-forces-debt-default-by-argentina-20140731-zyy83.html

None of which changes what I said. The 10% want the original terms of the bargain Argentina agreed to.

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yayayo
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July 31, 2014, 12:26:17 PM
 #25

Argentina is not the Cyprus of 2014. It's an entirely different situation and there is much less contagion risk for other countries. the default was expected to occur sooner or later.

The Cyprus of 2014 could happen in Portugal and Spain. These would be catastrophic events.

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July 31, 2014, 12:36:34 PM
 #26

Argentina is not the Cyprus of 2014. It's an entirely different situation and there is much less contagion risk for other countries. the default was expected to occur sooner or later.

The Cyprus of 2014 could happen in Portugal and Spain. These would be catastrophic events.

ya.ya.yo!

Yeah, it seems to be a completely different situation. I don't think this particular crisis could have the same obvious upside for BTC that the Cyprus crisis had.
inBitweTrust
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July 31, 2014, 12:42:54 PM
 #27

Argentina is not the Cyprus of 2014. It's an entirely different situation and there is much less contagion risk for other countries. the default was expected to occur sooner or later.

The Cyprus of 2014 could happen in Portugal and Spain. These would be catastrophic events.

ya.ya.yo!

Yeah, it seems to be a completely different situation. I don't think this particular crisis could have the same obvious upside for BTC that the Cyprus crisis had.

Is their any evidence that the people of Cyprus where heavily investing in Bitcoin? I believe the March 2013 bubble was only indirectly supported by the Crisis in Cyprus due to media attention given to bitcoin.

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July 31, 2014, 01:12:22 PM
 #28

Is their any evidence that the people of Cyprus where heavily investing in Bitcoin? I believe the March 2013 bubble was only indirectly supported by the Crisis in Cyprus due to media attention given to bitcoin.

Indeed, there is no evidence. I'd also agree that it was media attention that pushed the prices up.

I do not want to imply by discussing a possible Cyprus 2.0 scenario that this would be positive for the bitcoin/fiat exchange rate. It might have a positive influence if media portray bitcoin as a possibility for capital flight. We have to wait and see what happens.

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July 31, 2014, 01:22:57 PM
 #29

Do you think things would have gone differently if they had won the World Cup? I mean, there's a lot of money involved with those things! They could've used it to pay for the country's debts.

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July 31, 2014, 01:28:23 PM
 #30

Is their any evidence that the people of Cyprus where heavily investing in Bitcoin? I believe the March 2013 bubble was only indirectly supported by the Crisis in Cyprus due to media attention given to bitcoin.
True, for instance I already owned some bitcoins when Cyprus' economy started to collapse, and this just prompted me to buy more.

Do you think things would have gone differently if they had won the World Cup? I mean, there's a lot of money involved with those things! They could've used it to pay for the country's debts.

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July 31, 2014, 03:02:38 PM
 #31

weird how the rally just started this morning.
DjPxH
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July 31, 2014, 03:05:53 PM
 #32

Is their any evidence that the people of Cyprus where heavily investing in Bitcoin? I believe the March 2013 bubble was only indirectly supported by the Crisis in Cyprus due to media attention given to bitcoin.
True, for instance I already owned some bitcoins when Cyprus' economy started to collapse, and this just prompted me to buy more.

Do you think things would have gone differently if they had won the World Cup? I mean, there's a lot of money involved with those things! They could've used it to pay for the country's debts.


You got me, there Cheesy Don't believe it either, but let's see if some people jump on that train. The whole World Cup madness was pretty wild and seemingly important for a lot of people!

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thms
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July 31, 2014, 04:23:54 PM
 #33

I really do hope that Bitcoin grows in Argentina but this is different than Cyprus. Argentina has had many instances of hyper inflation and their citizens are already heavily adapted to investing in USD fiat to hedge against the peso. another Crysis will promote the adoption of Bitcoin but I doubt their will a mass flood of new users overnight. Than again if only 1% of the Argentinian population of 42.6million starts investing and using Bitcoin that can indeed cause a bubble.

Imagine 43k new bitcoin users hitting the exchanges overnight, damn ...

it would be 430k new btc users right.
Malin Keshar
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July 31, 2014, 04:46:18 PM
 #34

In what sense?

About bitcoin adoption, or about they being a small economy that will lead to a global crysis, like happened with Cyprus and Greece crysis spreading to Euro zone, then to the world?


I don't think the Argentina's crysis will spread to the world, because everyone knows that they are not a solid economy, so are kind of prepared for them falling, and they are not part of any significant economic block.

Either I doubt they will become a bitcoin enthusiast land because their ideology is close to the chinese one, and also close to countries not  bitcoin friendly, like Bolivia and Ecuador. The most optimistic situation is they just have no regulations about bitcoin.
thms
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July 31, 2014, 05:50:58 PM
 #35

Actually it's different

Argentina has the money to pay but the payment is blocked by a court order.

Argentina has the money to pay as per the conditions that were agreed upon with 90% of its creditors.

The other 10% now are demanding that Argentina pay according to different rules.

If Argentina accept these new rules, the other 90% could also ask for the same rules, so that's what's causing the problem.

The 'different' rules being the ones that Argentina agreed to when it first sold the bonds.
The 10% want what they were promised.

Technically, the 10% are not the same people anymore. So Argentina never promised anything to the current 10% that are holding these credits.
alexeft
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July 31, 2014, 06:41:30 PM
 #36

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!


arbitrage001
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July 31, 2014, 07:08:27 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2014, 05:18:22 AM by arbitrage001
 #37

everything follows a similar pattern

there is a bear trap and argentina defaults...


Do you believe this is a Cyprus moment

They un-pegged their currency and had bank holiday the last time they defaulted. The county population suddenly lose a lot of wealth over night.


It wouldn't surprise me if they confiscate bank account balance this time.
Daniel91
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July 31, 2014, 07:09:21 PM
 #38

No, I don't think that Argentina is the Cyprus of 2014?
Cyprus had difficulties due to the World crisis a few years ago.
Current crisis in Argentina have roots in first bankruptcy of this country 10 years ago.
So cause for this country is entirely different, not connected with the current economic crisis in the world but because of their national debts and inability to pay it.

thms
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July 31, 2014, 08:42:45 PM
 #39

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.
cr1776
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July 31, 2014, 08:54:13 PM
 #40

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.

Yeah.  If you are trading bitcoin for pesos, you have to have a nearly immediate use for a lot of pesos or you will likely be stuck holding the bag.  Inflation is already high, but if it goes up from 30%+, you need some type of hard asset.  Or you'll be stuck if the peso crashes more than it has due to default and other mismanagement.
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