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Author Topic: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014?  (Read 5416 times)
tabnloz
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August 01, 2014, 12:44:02 AM
 #41

Actually it's different

Argentina has the money to pay but the payment is blocked by a court order.

Argentina has the money to pay as per the conditions that were agreed upon with 90% of its creditors.

The other 10% now are demanding that Argentina pay according to different rules.

If Argentina accept these new rules, the other 90% could also ask for the same rules, so that's what's causing the problem.

The 'different' rules being the ones that Argentina agreed to when it first sold the bonds.
The 10% want what they were promised.

Article on vulture funds here is Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-vulture-fund-forces-debt-default-by-argentina-20140731-zyy83.html

None of which changes what I said. The 10% want the original terms of the bargain Argentina agreed to.

No, it doesn't change what you said at all.

But these 'vulture funds' only purchased the debt after the default. I consider it a pretty ordinary way to make money.
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August 01, 2014, 12:51:54 AM
 #42

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.
This is basically another way to measure what the true Peso/USD rate is as opposed to the Peso/BTC o the USD/BTC rate. Argentina has very strict capital controls so it is difficult to move money out of the country.

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tinof
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August 01, 2014, 08:21:07 AM
 #43

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.
This is basically another way to measure what the true Peso/USD rate is as opposed to the Peso/BTC o the USD/BTC rate. Argentina has very strict capital controls so it is difficult to move money out of the country.

Normally, foreigner are allowed to carry around 10k USD in and out without problem. If the black market rate gives 30% premium, it might worth your while to enjoy your vacation there.

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August 01, 2014, 12:50:48 PM
 #44

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.
This is basically another way to measure what the true Peso/USD rate is as opposed to the Peso/BTC o the USD/BTC rate. Argentina has very strict capital controls so it is difficult to move money out of the country.

Normally, foreigner are allowed to carry around 10k USD in and out without problem. If the black market rate gives 30% premium, it might worth your while to enjoy your vacation there.

The main difference is that Argentina has its own fiat money. But...the people in Argentina have some money in dollar accounts that may be confiscated. The peso accounts are better robbed by inflation.


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Este Nuno
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August 01, 2014, 06:11:19 PM
 #45

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.

Yeah.  If you are trading bitcoin for pesos, you have to have a nearly immediate use for a lot of pesos or you will likely be stuck holding the bag.  Inflation is already high, but if it goes up from 30%+, you need some type of hard asset.  Or you'll be stuck if the peso crashes more than it has due to default and other mismanagement.

Wow, is it really that bad already?!

That does not sound fun at all. I hope enough people there hear about Bitcoin before it's too late.
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August 01, 2014, 06:54:04 PM
 #46

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!




$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.
This is basically another way to measure what the true Peso/USD rate is as opposed to the Peso/BTC o the USD/BTC rate. Argentina has very strict capital controls so it is difficult to move money out of the country.

Normally, foreigner are allowed to carry around 10k USD in and out without problem. If the black market rate gives 30% premium, it might worth your while to enjoy your vacation there.

That's what exactly i did.  It is a great place for foreigners.  You can bring your dollars, trade them in the black market for a premium and go to high end retail brands and buy gold watches and jewelry for a fraction of the cost.

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August 01, 2014, 09:28:06 PM
 #47

The haircut being done in Cyprus is to confiscate a part of depositor money.

Argentina can either do the same or let the the peso depreciate by same percentage to achieve the same goal.
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August 02, 2014, 05:54:56 AM
 #48

everything follows a similar pattern

there is a bear trap and argentina defaults...


Do you believe this is a Cyprus moment

That's an interesting question after Zeroday made his post of the treatment he received from the Cyrpus banks that confiscated his banking accounts and employees pay and went to Bitcoin a rally occurred. So it is possible a similar story could emerge from Argentina that could act as a trigger.

Good question and it is possible that could happen.
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August 02, 2014, 07:06:44 PM
 #49

The haircut being done in Cyprus is to confiscate a part of depositor money.

Argentina can either do the same or let the the peso depreciate by same percentage to achieve the same goal.
Argentina is likely going to allow the peso depreciate further. They really do not have many issues with their banks so it is unlikely that banks will concatenate part of depositors deposits. Argentina also has it's own currency, verses  Cyprus using the Euro so they can print as much money as they need.

I think that people across Europe were buying bitcoin when Cyrpess hit as banks across Europe were having problems and were probably afraid that the same thing could happen in Spain for example.

I think some people are buying bitcoin in Argentina to avoid massive inflation of their Pesos, but I do not think it will have as large of an impact as Cypress did.
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August 02, 2014, 07:50:28 PM
 #50

Real estate and gold are a better hedge against default risk than bitcoin.
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August 02, 2014, 09:44:01 PM
 #51

Argentina is not the Cyprus of 2014. It's an entirely different situation and there is much less contagion risk for other countries. the default was expected to occur sooner or later.

The Cyprus of 2014 could happen in Portugal and Spain. These would be catastrophic events.

ya.ya.yo!

Yeah, it seems to be a completely different situation. I don't think this particular crisis could have the same obvious upside for BTC that the Cyprus crisis had.

Is their any evidence that the people of Cyprus where heavily investing in Bitcoin? I believe the March 2013 bubble was only indirectly supported by the Crisis in Cyprus due to media attention given to bitcoin.

I agree, the media interpreted that that bubble was because of Cyprus, I tend to believe that was the first block halve and the ASICs race start.
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August 02, 2014, 09:53:01 PM
 #52

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!


$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.

This.

The black market rate is the so called "Blue Dollar" (actually is called blue, not azul in spanish), the rate is now 12,7 ARS/USD. The official rate is 8,2 ARS/USD. More than 50% diff.

Bitcoin is priced around bitstamp value at blue dollar rate.

Price reference. http://www.ambito.com/economia/mercados/monedas/dolar/

Wow!!!

There are people in Buenos Aires selling bitcoin for ~8150 ARS or $1000!!!


$1000 if you use the government exchange rate.

they are trading using the black market rate, which is the true dollar value.

Yeah.  If you are trading bitcoin for pesos, you have to have a nearly immediate use for a lot of pesos or you will likely be stuck holding the bag.  Inflation is already high, but if it goes up from 30%+, you need some type of hard asset.  Or you'll be stuck if the peso crashes more than it has due to default and other mismanagement.

I guess the inflation is already 30%+.
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August 02, 2014, 10:01:02 PM
 #53

Xapo. https://xapo.com/en/

Will become very popular in Argentina. The founder is also very familiar with Argentina's banking and financial problem.

I'm sure hope Xapo has a marketing campaign in South America.
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August 03, 2014, 05:08:03 AM
 #54

Why Argentina’s Debt Default is an Opportunity for Bitcoin

http://www.coindesk.com/argentinas-debt-default-good-bitcoin/
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August 03, 2014, 06:03:51 AM
 #55

The haircut being done in Cyprus is to confiscate a part of depositor money.

Argentina can either do the same or let the the peso depreciate by same percentage to achieve the same goal.
Argentina is likely going to allow the peso depreciate further. They really do not have many issues with their banks so it is unlikely that banks will concatenate part of depositors deposits. Argentina also has it's own currency, verses  Cyprus using the Euro so they can print as much money as they need.

I think that people across Europe were buying bitcoin when Cyrpess hit as banks across Europe were having problems and were probably afraid that the same thing could happen in Spain for example.

I think some people are buying bitcoin in Argentina to avoid massive inflation of their Pesos, but I do not think it will have as large of an impact as Cypress did.
I think this will cause bitcoin appreciate over the near term. With the citizens of Argentina wanting to avoid inflation, they will purchase a deflationary asset, in other words bitcoin. 

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August 03, 2014, 06:29:37 AM
 #56

This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes


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August 03, 2014, 12:42:20 PM
 #57

This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.
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August 03, 2014, 02:45:17 PM
 #58

This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.

Did you read the story?   Agentina is defaulting on some bonds.   What does this have to go people converting their currency


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lyth0s
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August 03, 2014, 02:53:15 PM
 #59

This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.

Did you read the story?   Agentina is defaulting on some bonds.   What does this have to go people converting their currency

Because there will now be hyperinflation of the Argentina Peso > 30% this year, meaning a big loss for holders of pesos. Thus it is advantageous for them to convert their money into a currency that will not inflate as greatly, such as the USD or possibly bitcoin.

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Mobius
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August 03, 2014, 10:21:20 PM
 #60

This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.

Did you read the story?   Agentina is defaulting on some bonds.   What does this have to go people converting their currency
They are actually being forced to default on all of their bonds, just some of them have interest payments that are now past due. When a country defaults, the world in general (including it's citizens) will lose faith in that country's economy and currency.
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