$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[BurtW]

Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security.  I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.

[Miracal]

Your theory is very exciting, and I really wish that happens soon. I think there are certain social factors and economical factors in a few countries withing a few people which limit the accessibility of bitcoin. once that problem is overcome, there can be more concentration as to increasing use of bitcoin around us and educating about bitcoin to substantially multiply its use which will in the end benefit bitcoin users.

[oblivi]

Your theory is very exciting, and I really wish that happens soon. I think there are certain social factors and economical factors in a few countries withing a few people which limit the accessibility of bitcoin. once that problem is overcome, there can be more concentration as to increasing use of bitcoin around us and educating about bitcoin to substantially multiply its use which will in the end benefit bitcoin users.

It's bound to happen sooner or later. All the indicators are aiming for a total fiat collapse and the scam will be finally unveiled. If we can get through the blocksize crisis thing and start planning things for the next 20 years to scale up the system we'll get there. Bitcoin is the only thing that can save us from failing into the same traps from the past, this is bigger than most here realize.

[NorrisK]

Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security.  I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.

Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back?

[BurtW]

Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security.  I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.

Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back?

They took them from my safe when they raided my home.  9 months and $284,373.00 later.

More information here:

www.jmwagner.com
www.burtw.com
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1086852.msg12026075#msg12026075

Or, an entire thread on the subject here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934268.0

[ingiltere]

Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security.  I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.

Glad to hear you got your coins back BurtW. I hope we can see thousand dollar coins in one year.

[NorrisK]

Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security.  I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.

Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back?

They took them from my safe when they raided my home.  9 months and $284,373.00 later.

More information here:

www.jmwagner.com
www.burtw.com
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1086852.msg12026075#msg12026075

Or, an entire thread on the subject here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934268.0

Wow that is really insane.. When reading about this I am so happy I do not live in the USA with their patriot act shit..

[OmegaStarScream]

Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest .
Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless .

[BurtW]

Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest .
Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless .

$50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet.  So, I think not.  Maybe in the next era or the one after that.

You can see my calculations a few pages back, here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635

[OmegaStarScream]

Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest .
Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless .

$50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet.  So, I think not.  Maybe in the next era or the one after that.

You can see my calculations a few pages back, here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635

First of all , welcome back I saw the topic that theymos made about you months ago so ... You said this (not sure if you meant 50k or actually 500k) :

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

In my opinion , that's more then perfect , I have now 18 years old so I guess I have time and I have no problem on waiting another 18 years if I will become rich but as I said maybe after 18 years that amount in USD won't have the same value as now at all .

[BurtW]

All are my estimates: 

$500,000 in this era -> 30% of all electricity produced.
 
$50,000 in this era -> 3% of all electricity produced.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Also true.

[BurtW]

Wow that is really insane.. When reading about this I am so happy I do not live in the USA with their patriot act shit..

For those that might be country shopping, what country do you live in?  Does your government condone civil asset forfeitures?  Does it allow US homeland security and FBI to raid citizens in your country - like New Zealand did/does?

[smooth]

Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest .
Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless .

$50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet.  So, I think not.  Maybe in the next era or the one after that.

You can see my calculations a few pages back, here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635

3% of all electricity being used for Bitcoin is not really impossible or even necessarily undesirable. According to the article below, IT uses 10%. Is a very successful Bitcoin important and valuable enough to use 30% of IT's electricity (or alternately to increase IT incrementally from 10% to 13%)? I don't think the answer is obviously no.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/16/it_electricity_use_worse_than_you_thought/

[BurtW]

3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the realm of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.

[brg444]

3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.

I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come.

Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption 

[farfiman]

3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.

I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come.

Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption  

You haven't read the whole thread. It doesn't matter how energy efficient the mining gets.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8141569#msg8141569

There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight....
Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters?

You seem to think that technology and/or efficiency figure in to the system power consumption formula.  They do not.  It does not matter how efficient the miners become, it does not matter if the ASICs get smaller/better/faster/cheaper.  Most importantly it does not matter where you get the power from, assuming the same cost.

If you are assuming that printable solar cells are going to bring the average cost of power down under my $0.10 per KWh estimate then that would allow the Bitcoin network to use even more power than the estimate given.

If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given.

By design the amount of power consumed is directly propotional to the average amount of USD available per block (subsidy + fees) as show in the formula given above.

Within an era the power consumed is proportional to the price.  If the price goes from $500/BTC to a sustained $5,000 per BTC the amount of power consumed by the network will rise to about 10x the former amount independent of efficiency and technology used.

[Ibian]

So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.

[farfiman]

So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.

I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean?  If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
 

[brg444]

So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.

I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean?  If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
 

If Bitcoin is the tool that will liberate humanity from dependence on centralized authorities then it most certainly is worth it.

[Ibian]

So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.

I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ?
And what does "worth it" mean?  If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it.
Is it "worth it"?
 

Don't need to. Supply and demand. The demand for electricity goes up? We will produce more of it, or raise the price.