$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[Marbit]

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient.

LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.

[Cconvert2G36]

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient.

LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.

Well, you don't see why. And grandma keeps asking me about cold storage for her savings... Costliest here we come!

[billyjoeallen]

Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through

1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)
2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)
3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)

I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.

They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"

You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."

After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.

BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.

Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

• $0.05 per bitcoin. The start.
• $0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble
• $5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

• $5,000 per bitcoin.
• $50,000 per bitcoin.
• $500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.

$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.

10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.

Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion

$500,000 Bitcoin baby.



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The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers". I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

It doesn't work like that. MV=PQ.    If the number of transactions (velocity or "V") increase, it has the same effect as having more bitcoins (M).   With mass adoption, there will many people thinking they have bitcoins, when really they only have bitcoin IOUs from some equivalent of a fractional reserve lender. M₀ are the bitcoins mined and controlled by private keys, but if you buy something from Overstock.com with your coinbase account, nothing happens on the blockchain. Those are just credits and debits on coinbase's own ledger.

best case scenario bitcoin will still never represent that large of a fraction of GWP. BUT, they may end up being worth half a million each if cryto helps grow the world economy enough, and that is unlikely but just may possibly happen.

[talkbitcoin]

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient.

LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.

it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high!

[mattiadeabtc]

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient.

LOL me too
The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency.

it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high!

for sure i will send all when we touch 100.000$ per coin, i will be able to retire whit a good amount of money

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.

[smooth]

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.

10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%.

Plausible.

[Andy4.4]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

[randy8777]

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.

usually reasonable predictions have a 50% chance of getting right. but the price you are waiting for within 10 years is beyond reasonable and will never happen.

[lite]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

Island on Greece? I think as the price of Bitcoin increases the price of an island on Greece will increase exponentially. 

[Fakhoury]

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business.

10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%.

Plausible.

Could you elaborate more on this please.

Thank you.

[Amph]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin

it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that

[Andy4.4]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin

it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that

hmmm, I didn't think this way.
Thanks for enlightening me bro.

[Hot Carl]

There's no way it would ever go to half a mill without pretty much worldwide adoption. Personally I'd be very happy with a few thousand but I think we will have to wait quite some time for even that.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

if this happens, there won't be enough islands for everyone

[NorrisK]

If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.

if this happens, there won't be enough islands for everyone

The islands are pretty cheap nowadays because of the massive taxes Greece charges on owning a house on there. I guess the islands are pretty hard on the wallet at the moment, even if you have some decent bitcoin holdings at that price.

[BurtW]

Could you elaborate more on this please.
Thank you.

We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

   $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

     Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

See also:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135893#msg8135893
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8141569#msg8141569
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8168414#msg8168414
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8206075#msg8206075

and

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

[Warren Buffert]

So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here.

[BurtW]

So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here.

maroons?

[ssmc2]

So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here.

maroons?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maroon_(people)

Who knew?