$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[Cashew]

The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it.

This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong !

[cellard]

The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it.

This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong !

farting shot was just another alt account by kwukduck or that other idiot that doesn't stop spamming the speculation section with FUD with what appears to be automated messages.

Notice how they always disappear when the price rallies, and they use every small correction to try to trick noobs into panic selling. Very sad indeed.

[digaran]

The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it.

OH REEALLY NOW? 

I started buying bitcoin in late 2013 in small increments (a kind of personally tailored dollar cost averaging), and I kept buying on the way down thinking that I was getting a better and better deal.

In late 2014, when prices were in the upper $300s, I thought that it had pretty much bottom out, and I bought a decent additional stash.

So throughout 2015 when prices stayed in the $200s, I engaged in a considerable debate with more than one "know-it-all" who was convinced that BTC would never again go above upper $200s, and strongly advising that I sell in order to recoupe some of my principle.... at that point, my average price per BTC was a bit over $500, and I said that I did not need to sell, and I think that it would be crazy to sell at a loss (and lock in losses).  I said that I would hold through it and just continue with my practice of buying on the way down.

So yeah, those were tough times, and us HODLers had to stick through a considerable period of depressed prices, but it seems to have paid off quite well.  Currently, my average cost per BTC is a bit over $400, so my portfolio is doing quite well and even measure profits of more than 150% - which is much more than my expectations of good performance of about 6% per year (which was what my stock index funds had returned on average over the previous 15 years).  Anyhow, better than 50% per year (on average) with bitcoin remains a decent place to be (and quite a bit of cushion) and even a bit of an ability to make fun of the naysayers.      

Now you see this is what I'm talking about, people bought years ago and even 6 months ago are in significantly huge profit, and I know that one year from now when price is well above $2600 people if buying now will profit then.
These kind of stories that are good for moral in community, stories that are undeniable even for the most of the skeptics.

[maku]

Actually I am glad that someone necroed this thread from the oblivion. I am not entirely sure if math behind the numbers in these calculations is correct
But it is a great reminder for people of what bitcoin could become when people will trust it instead of crying and believe in every FUD they hear.
Another thing is slow progress of adoption, after 2013 there were many predictions (Tim Draper and others) which presented us great future.
I am not saying that this future won't come, but at this point it seems that be further along the way everyone expected it to be - $10.000 in 2018 seems highly unlikely.

[JayJuanGee]

Actually I am glad that someone necroed this thread from the oblivion. I am not entirely sure if math behind the numbers in these calculations is correct
But it is a great reminder for people of what bitcoin could become when people will trust it instead of crying and believe in every FUD they hear.
Another thing is slow progress of adoption, after 2013 there were many predictions (Tim Draper and others) which presented us great future.
I am not saying that this future won't come, but at this point it seems that be further along the way everyone expected it to be - $10.000 in 2018 seems highly unlikely.

I think that each of us has the ability to come up with his/her own assessment of the possibilities of bitcoin and the probabilities that it may reach certain price points within certain price periods.

Furthermore, those projections about what is probable and/or realistic are going to be tweaked over time and the probabilities change after the happening of events (whether those events were unknowns or anticipated).

Sometimes, also, I get a little bit irritated by math projections and also sometimes the level of certainty that might be attributed to the future happening of certain events - and yeah, merely because you assign a lower probability of an event occurring than someone else does not mean that the you might end up being wrong, even though you may have had the better argument based on the totality of the then known facts.

For example, through most of 2015, with BTC prices largely staying in the $200s, it would have seemed a bit improbable to predict price movements as we had experienced them ($500 in November 2015, $780 in June 2016, $1,100 in January 2017).  In fact going from the $200s to $1,100s in about 14 months would seem kind of improbable.. even thogh it happened those become our new sets of circumstances in which we can project future possibilities - and for example, how likely we consider going back down to below $600 can be equally an interesting question as how likely it is that we will go above $5k - and in what time line? and how much volatility are we going to face if such outcomes were to play out?

[DRaGoN RaNTaRo]

The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it.

This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong !

farting shot was just another alt account by kwukduck or that other idiot that doesn't stop spamming the speculation section with FUD with what appears to be automated messages.

Notice how they always disappear when the price rallies, and they use every small correction to try to trick noobs into panic selling. Very sad indeed.

Does people sell their coins seeing FUD threads in bitcointalk ? people do get panic when some major news sites write some trash and it might boil over and affect the price of the coin as we have seen most of the time .
I like the math behind the speculation ,there is nothing wrong in dreaming big  .

[Meuh6879]

BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.

Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

• $0.05 per bitcoin. The start.
• $0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble
• $5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

• $5,000 per bitcoin.
• $50,000 per bitcoin.
• $500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.

$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.

10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.

Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion

$500,000 Bitcoin baby.

In image (i like image).



https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/






https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1119926.0

[Shiroslullaby]

25% of blackmarket transactions in Bitcoin is the most likely scenario to actually happen from this graphic.
Illuminati puppetmasters would never let a currency they didn't create replace reserve currency.

[angaper]

Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions.

[Bitcoin0916]

I'm not sure the price of $500.000 will be reached. Maybe before the price $10.000, bitcoin already disappear. The main reason because of a coin which replaced the coins and also any coin better than bitcoin. Maybe a lot of people believe the price continues to rise, but not significantly and it took a long time.

[Rahar02]

Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through

1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)
2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)
3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)

I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.

They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"

You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."

After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.

BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.

Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

• $0.05 per bitcoin. The start.
• $0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble
• $5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

• $5,000 per bitcoin.
• $50,000 per bitcoin.
• $500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.

$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.

10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.

Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion

$500,000 Bitcoin baby.



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers". I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

Amazing calculations, it is make sense in math but the prediction about 10% acceptance by growth of population, seems hardly to achieve. I realized, that is possible in the future if blockchain technology and devs team could solve all the problems such as what we face right now, the biggest obstacle maybe come from the government which ban bitcoin or push exchanges to sink in the middle of financial services.

[JANGKRIK BOSS]

As a loyal user, I'm also realistic. I think there may be a price of $500.000 is achieved, the main thing that has to be resolved is the issue of speed of the transaction. many users complain that the transaction is bitcoin became slow and need more than 50,000 confirmations.

[shield132]

There is really suggestive question here. We have many years to see what will happen about bitcoin but to my mind there is no doubt that mostly bitcoin's price will grow and grow, people's interest increases, bitcoin is limited supply and many people means price of that supply will grow. We can say this for example: If we have 2 bottle of whiskey and only 1-2 people are interested with this, we will try to sell it cheaply but if 20 people wants that one whiskey bottle, there is big competition and this automatically means that we will sell whiskey in higher price because whiskey is one but 20 people wishes to buy, so higher bet wins here. Hope everyone understand what I wanted to say.

[Barbut]

Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through

1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)
2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)
3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)

I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.

They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"

You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."

After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.

BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.

Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

• $0.05 per bitcoin. The start.
• $0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble
• $5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

• $5,000 per bitcoin.
• $50,000 per bitcoin.
• $500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.

$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.

10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.

Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion

$500,000 Bitcoin baby.



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers". I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

Amazing calculations, it is make sense in math but the prediction about 10% acceptance by growth of population, seems hardly to achieve. I realized, that is possible in the future if blockchain technology and devs team could solve all the problems such as what we face right now, the biggest obstacle maybe come from the government which ban bitcoin or push exchanges to sink in the middle of financial services.

Amazing calculations and amazing comment. Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world, bitcoin rejects no one this is why bitcoin will succeed and have more then 10 % population behind it.
I also see this revolution, this world will go forward and internet together with bitcoin can help us on this revolution. We don't need fiat anymore, you will send me food and I will give you bitcoins, or litecoins.. I will send water someone he will pay me in same way. We don't need banks and governments to take huge percent from us every time we need to buy something, fuck them!

[d@nte]

Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions.

If that happens, it will take decades, $500,000 is an exaggeration under current conditions. However, maybe it will not take that long to see Bitcoin in the $ 10,000 range. There are some scenarios that may help Bitcoin follow this path, but that will depend on things that would take many years to happen.

One of these scenario would be one in which large companies such as amazon.com and ebay.com decided to adopt the currency. That would generate an incredible demand, and given the fact that Bitcoin is scarcer than most people think, it would be possible to see the price reach very high levels.

[numismatist]

Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions.

If that happens, it will take decades, $500,000 is an exaggeration under current conditions. However, maybe it will not take that long to see Bitcoin in the $ 10,000 range. There are some scenarios that may help Bitcoin follow this path, but that will depend on things that would take many years to happen.

One of these scenario would be one in which large companies such as amazon.com and ebay.com decided to adopt the currency. That would generate an incredible demand, and given the fact that Bitcoin is scarcer than most people think, it would be possible to see the price reach very high levels.

Alibaba.com. They are sponsoring the IOC on the next Olympics. Maybe eBay or Amazon are more in the known, but in comparison they are rather lightweights.
And neither eBay nor Amazon will get away from dollars, not even the tiniest step. Trust me on that.

[Denker]

I'm not sure the price of $500.000 will be reached. Maybe before the price $10.000, bitcoin already disappear. The main reason because of a coin which replaced the coins and also any coin better than bitcoin. Maybe a lot of people believe the price continues to rise, but not significantly and it took a long time.

This price will not be reached for many decades!Probably never!
$10.000 is something you could aim for if you're still young and have a long breath.
Why should Bitcoin disappear? It's THE Blockchain!! All the other stuff seems to be irrelevant. Sure this doesn't mean Bitcoin can't be replaced, but I'm sure it will not disappear!

[Meuh6879]

but it is not so easy as your calculations shows.

That's because you prefer math over graphic (without numbers).

I prefer graphic :





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kRLvpDBSY

[ingiltere]

I prefer graphic :

-snip-

That's pretty neat graphics! I agree that we haven't passed early adopter phase yet, but it's becoming to early majority day by day. One last big pump in 1-2 years will take us to early majority phase; more news, more adoption and faster adoption rate... I'm a strong believer that banking system will fail and Bitcoin will achieve 7 digits one day. We'll witness history.

[w00t]

$7,333,755,829,104

Yep - That's trillions Based on current spot gold price of  $1,222.84

http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp

If there is one thing to make to barbaric relic to go away it will be Bitcoin.

Gold market cap / Bitcoin market cap (minus 1 million BTCs lost) => ~ 366 000 USD per 1 BTC

Yes $500k per 1 BTC doesn't seem unreasonable in next 15 years or so. Even today (I mean right here, right now) with all the problems Bitcoin has (and there is plenty - such as it doesn't scale well) it's already superior to gold so I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be on par with gold.