$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[log2exp]

^Agree. Targets in my head about bitcoins for '27 are ~$10K. So this story has some logic. 

I am quite positive that in 2027 price of BTC will be way over $10k.  for that only 2 bubbles are needed. I expect we will see at least 3.

Will be at $10k by 2022 just in linear growth, should be around $100k by 2027.

[aeternus]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

[Amph]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more

not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one

it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving

[Vaskiy]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more

not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one

it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving

By the next halving we can have a close estimation of the price per bitcoin. As above quote we can have a stable price to be more than $10k. As more Countries adopt bitcoin and regulate in a perfect manner the value will be good.

[Meowth05]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

Indeed, it takes a long from bitcoin to reach that amount. There are many things that could happen before attain that amount it might become stable the price of bitcoin. For me it is enough if its price will reach 10,000 $ per bitcoin.

[senyorito123]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more

not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one

it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving

By the next halving we can have a close estimation of the price per bitcoin. As above quote we can have a stable price to be more than $10k. As more Countries adopt bitcoin and regulate in a perfect manner the value will be good.

Pretty though and ambitious to here that bitcoin will cross to that price since that price is more even huge and i can't imagine on how many fiat volume will be consume before we can reach that. But anyways aslong as the bitcoins price movement is pretty more healthy then we can't elimanate the speculation that the current price for now will be surpassed on incoming days.

[chopstick]

500k Per bitcoin is still possible.

With the 1mb limit removed.

With the limit still in place, I'm not so sure.

[aeternus]

It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.

50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more

not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one

it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving

Assuming the value of bitcoin is 2000 dollars by the end of the year bitcoin will only need to grow a little bit less than 12% yearly compounded annually so it can reach half a million in 50 years but I remember reading in a thread that bitcoin goes up on average 6% annually if that rate keeps true then it will take bitcoin 95 years to reach that value without taking into account inflation.

[AlcoHoDL]

Assuming the value of bitcoin is 2000 dollars by the end of the year bitcoin will only need to grow a little bit less than 12% yearly compounded annually so it can reach half a million in 50 years but I remember reading in a thread that bitcoin goes up on average 6% annually if that rate keeps true then it will take bitcoin 95 years to reach that value without taking into account inflation.

Are you sure about that 6%? Because I calculated that from 2015 to 2016 Bitcoin had a gain of over 80%, and from 2016 to 2017 the gain was over 110%. The gain from 2017 to 2018 is expected to be even higher than the previous gains (but we don't know yet).

So we're talking about yearly gains far higher than 6% or 12%... Unless I'm missing something.

Edit: With a yearly gain of 100% (too optimistic, I know) and a starting value of $2000, it will only take 8 years for the value of Bitcoin to reach $0.5M/BTC.

[aeternus]

Assuming the value of bitcoin is 2000 dollars by the end of the year bitcoin will only need to grow a little bit less than 12% yearly compounded annually so it can reach half a million in 50 years but I remember reading in a thread that bitcoin goes up on average 6% annually if that rate keeps true then it will take bitcoin 95 years to reach that value without taking into account inflation.

Are you sure about that 6%? Because I calculated that from 2015 to 2016 Bitcoin had a gain of over 80%, and from 2016 to 2017 the gain was over 110%. The gain from 2017 to 2018 is expected to be even higher than the previous gains (but we don't know yet).

So we're talking about yearly gains far higher than 6% or 12%... Unless I'm missing something.

Edit: With a yearly gain of 100% (too optimistic, I know) and a starting value of $2000, it will only take 8 years for the value of Bitcoin to reach $0.5M/BTC.

Maybe my post was not clear enough, I was not trying to calculate the current growth of bitcoin but the average needed to reach the amount of half a million dollars and how much time it will take, bitcoin has grown a lot more than that this year but supposing the price does not move much in the next years then you will need to get the average, for example if bitcoin wins 100% this year and then in the next two years the price does not move then we add 100%+0%+0%=100% and then we divided between the number of years, in this case 3 and that give to us 33.33% yearly growth.

[zoidsoft]

Interesting to read this in retrospect what people were thinking at the time in 2014.  Now we have some big names like John McAfee saying $500k in 3 years.  The price in South Korea broke $4500 late this spring then dropped down.  Currently the price is at $3350 after reaching almost $3500 after segwit locked in.

For $500k to be possible, bitcoin will have to scale many times and probably have mass adoption and have easier to use apps hooked up to smart phones.  The transaction speeds will also have to improve a lot.  Currently it can only process 10 transactions / second.  Ethereum is double this.  To get to the level of Visa/MasterCard it will have to handle at least 25,000 transactions per second.

[j753k]

Interesting to read this in retrospect what people were thinking at the time in 2014.  Now we have some big names like John McAfee saying $500k in 3 years.  The price in South Korea broke $4500 late this spring then dropped down.  Currently the price is at $3350 after reaching almost $3500 after segwit locked in.

For $500k to be possible, bitcoin will have to scale many times and probably have mass adoption and have easier to use apps hooked up to smart phones.  The transaction speeds will also have to improve a lot.  Currently it can only process 10 transactions / second.  Ethereum is double this.  To get to the level of Visa/MasterCard it will have to handle at least 25,000 transactions per second.

Most people just use there bitcoin as an investment and dont use it daily for transactions, so your wrong about the need to process on mastercard levels.

[GreatOrchid]

wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge.
I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future.
by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors.

[The_Dark_Knight]

The numbers are correct but like always the question is when? The Internet and computers were adopted very fast because it was very obvious the benefits they had, while the benefits of bitcoin are as obvious the problems is that bitcoin is competing against governments and banks two of the most powerful institutions in the world.

[zoidsoft]

Most people just use there bitcoin as an investment and dont use it daily for transactions, so your wrong about the need to process on mastercard levels.

This assumes that the nature of bitcoin use doesn't change.  What I said is that IF it does then it will have to process 25,000/sec or it will run into problems.  If it doesn't grow at all, then it will also never need to scale again.

[Warren Buffert]

This is all assuming there will be nothing new,  which very well might be so... but maybe someday btc will hand over the crown.

[marcuslong]

Wow this is really amazing to use we are now in near future where people will celebrate because of the price of bitcoin since we seeing the potential of growing bitcoin hoping that those local store and online store see's the worth of using bitcoin to be implemented into there payment option. But im not expecting this to happens because i don't want to disappoint my self.

[angaper]

wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge.
I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future.
by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors.

Why not?

So far bitcoin has overcome all the pessimistic forecasts that have again and again condemned it to imminent failure over the years, and that is why many of the early adopters are not millionaires, given the catastrophic scenarios that regularly arise, many of them decided to sell at the first major pump, either at $ 1, at $ 100 or at $ 1,000.

Some years ago the Bank of America forecast that $ 1,300 was a natural limit that could not be broken, but today we see the price of bitcoin making fun of those forecasts. Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible.

[JayJuanGee]

wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge.
I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future.
by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors.

Why not?

So far bitcoin has overcome all the pessimistic forecasts that have again and again condemned it to imminent failure over the years, and that is why many of the early adopters are not millionaires, given the catastrophic scenarios that regularly arise, many of them decided to sell at the first major pump, either at $ 1, at $ 100 or at $ 1,000.

Some years ago the Bank of America forecast that $ 1,300 was a natural limit that could not be broken, but today we see the price of bitcoin making fun of those forecasts. Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible.

Yep... lots of scaredy cats out there, and frequently, I recommend a form of dollar cost averaging that is within budget - however, peeps are even afraid of that.

So, yeah, there have been people proclaiming bitcoin to be overpriced since $250 -- and so as the BTC price goes up, they get more and more nervous to buy in, and I think that has to do with a gambling mentality.  Instead of being prudent and buying slowly, frequently these folks want to put money in and then to see prices go up right away, and when the prices go up, lets say 50% or 100%, they get nervous again and cash out everything.. seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation -- though I can partly understand because I feel the same way about Ethereum... I could never realize a 5x, 10x or 20x profit of ethereum, because I would be nervous and cash out after a 50% price appreciation.

[butcherboss]

Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues