$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[CoinRocka]

"IF" bitcoin does succeed my belief is that mass adoption will happen very soon < 2 years and the price will absolutely skyrocket.  6 figures per in 2-3 yrs time.   

[Light]

It's very amusing to see all the people with a rather inflated sense of what is going to happen in the future. An increase in price in the comings years? Yes, I can agree with that. But an increase to half a million dollars per BTC in the near future? I'd really like to know what you've been smoking. I personally think we're going to have an exponential decay in growth as time passes, none of this linear increase bull.

[bigasic]

We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

   $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

     Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

I  would love if your prediction is correct, heck, Ill take close. Thats right about time for retirement. But, Id settle for 250k per coin, lol...

[Victoo]

Interesting math. It is very possible as people are already cursing banks and looking for alternatives.

[Anders]

If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that.

The founder of Coinbase said that even though people mostly trade with bitcoins today as an investment there are incentives to use Bitcoin for shopping. He could be correct.

[Silly Money]

If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that.

I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon.

[bomb177]

I love math, expecially when it says that the bitcoin will be valued so high

[Mr Crabs]

I love math, expecially when it says that the bitcoin will be valued so high

Except this isn't really based on any solid math, just speculation.

[Anders]

If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that.

I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon.

If Amazon would accept Bitcoin without people using it, sure that wouldn't do much. If Amazon was forced to accept Bitcoin because of public pressure and demand, then that could get really interesting.

[Ludi]

If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that.

I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon.

If Amazon would accept Bitcoin without people using it, sure that wouldn't do much. If Amazon was forced to accept Bitcoin because of public pressure and demand, then that could get really interesting.

It'll be a long time if ever that they'll be 'forced' to accept it. Bitcoin is a long way off for weilding that sort of power, though maybe they could lose business to competition and lose out on the free advertising.

[Anders]

I will stick with my guess of about max $5,000 per bitcoin, but just for fun:

Let's say that Bitcoin becomes the dominating currency in the world with a 90% market share.

"How much money exists on Earth? ...  That figure is around $60 trillion." -- http://gizmodo.com/5995301/how-much-money-is-there-on-earth

Price per bitcoin = 0.9 * 60x10¹² / 21,000,000 = $2,570,000

[gondel]

Hi,
This sounds reasonable but for price like 5000-10000 per coin. Half a million for one BTC is like in year 2200
Yeah sure when you are grandpa you will tell to your kids the story about BTC in your young days, but be more realistic now
We will see even a price drop the next weeks so hold.
BR
Gondel

[romerun]

To stick with reality, 50k per coin is the sane boundary, beyond that, bitcoin marketcap would be 1T+ where the government territory is. Although it's possible, but I can't really imagine what the world would be when that happens.

[jgragons]

ok, 700,000 BTC were stolen from MTGox. So are they actually spendable by the hacker or are they now just lost to the world. I can understand wallets being encrypted, but why aren't individual BTC encrypted with the owners private key so that a stolen BTC is worthless unless the owner unencrypts it first.

[Beyonce]

To stick with reality, 50k per coin is the sane boundary, beyond that, bitcoin marketcap would be 1T+ where the government territory is. Although it's possible, but I can't really imagine what the world would be when that happens.

What do you mean by the bolded part?  

[cryptworld]

I like that price
but I don't see it a possible price

[TYT]

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

$500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient.

me too lol, imo 100k before 2020.

Bitcoin probably wont even be around by that time. Something similar but improved will have probably taken over.

[BurtW]

ok, 700,000 BTC were stolen from MTGox. So are they actually spendable by the hacker or are they now just lost to the world. I can understand wallets being encrypted, but why aren't individual BTC encrypted with the owners private key so that a stolen BTC is worthless unless the owner unencrypts it first.

That is how it works.  Nobody can steal your BTC unless they get your private key so they can "decrypt" it so they can spend it.  If you keep your private keys safe then your BTC are safe.

[BurtW]

The math was ripped off from Dr Sol Adoni's bitcoin book

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B00M7DM6I2/ref=redir_mdp_mobile

His book is way less money on his site

www.bitcoinalgorithm.com

Oh bitcoin is a cia project

Nakamoto means central or middle

Satoshi means intellegence

Nakamoto satoshi

Central intelligence

So you need to refer to your bitcoin as

AdoniCIACOIN

You and your dozens of alts are comic idiots.  Sol Adoni must translate to "drooling mental case"

[Anders]

I have felt a little envy of those who have invested a lot in Bitcoin early. And if one bitcoin would be worth $500,000 then many people may feel bad because they didn't or couldn't invest early. I have changed my mind about that and would be interested in having Bitcoin become huge even if I myself hadn't invested in Bitcoin. I'm curious to find out if Bitcoin is the new mammal that will survive while the dinosaur fiat currencies die out.