Real Bitcoin Price Speculations

teodor87 (OP)

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Real Bitcoin Price Speculations

August 02, 2014, 04:45:43 PM

OK. It's awesome that people always have their own, unique opinions about bitcoins price increase, but come on!

I also wish bitcoin to be worth 500,000.00 dollars.

However, when making your calculations, you don't get in mind the following:

1. Greed - if bitcoin prices start to rise again, and market reaches 60 - 70k bitcoins daily most of the old investors would sell way below 10,000.00. So prices will fall again. And a snowfall would it be.

2. Simple logic - let's say price gets to 500,000.00 (it's not entirely impossible). For that to happen, market has to reach at least 100k bitcoins a day to create enough bullish velocity. Minimum.
Not only - how many people worldwide own 500,000.00 in cash, ready for an investment? And how many of them would risk it for a currency with no real backup? Very few.
There is a mental limit of 25,000.00. A lot of people would freak out if it reaches such price. And they will sell. However, due to the increased market, and the velocity of sales price will not be stable above 25 grand and will landslide again to at least 5 grand.
Third - serious investors are greedy. Fact. But even they are not so greedy to invest billions of dollars again in a currency with no backup, if they could make a guaranteed 2 - 5% annual return on their investments.
Another thing - let's say the average transaction if BTC is 500,000$ is say 2500$ (which is A LOT). That's 0,05BTC. How many people have to buy 2500$ worth of BTC per day to reach the needed 100000 BTC market?

20 MILLION!

3. Fiat currency - fiat currency is a VERY HARD THING TO SUSTAIN! Very hard. That's why (and because some bankers didn't follow the rules) we had a crisis, just 6 years ago. A crisis that we've not recovered from yet completely.
But fiat currencies have evolved over centuries. In the beginning all currencies were gold and/or silver and/or brass coins. Why? Simple - metals were hard to obtain. Brass was the easiest to produce, silver was not so easy, gold was almost impossible to get.
That's why gold was the most expensive metal to make coins of. That's when the first banks appeared. What they did back then is simply protect your gold for 2% annual interest (paid to them). But due to the increased amount of transactions banks had problems such as thievery and logistic problems, thus years later central banks appeared, and decided that notes, backed by gold and silver will be issued, and the central bank of each country issued it's own notes, distributed within the boundries of it's country of origin.
Then in the end of 16-th century the london stock exchange was established and later the Rothschild brothers invented the cheque payment system.
It was based on real currency, that was in the bank. Then banks got in the game. The first investment banks appeared. They were making a lot of money, but it was not enough to cover all their investments. So banks started issuing bonds, obligations and bank guarantees.
In 1916, the Federal Reserve removed the silver standard of notes (silver notes became legal tender) and the reserve issued silver bonds, for each note printed. Then a lot of people started to get credit and the reserve issued bonds to the banks, giving the money to people.
In 1970 the gold standard was removed too. Credit system was very popular by then, bad credit began to rise.
That's why banks gave 10's of times more money that they own to people. There is the problem.

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