How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years?

[JayJuanGee]

The real topic of this thread is too vague for anyone to answer for anyone but him/herself.  I mean, if you have a huge vegetable garden and you have some goats then maybe you make cheese from you goats' milk and maybe you eat the vegetables from your garden and maybe you don't have to pay for food so that might be a huge expenditure for others that you don't pay.  Alternatively, maybe you have a mortgage on your home or maybe you don't.  There are too many factors in order to say generally how much money someone needs to "retire" much less how much money one needs in btc.

It's vague only if one reads the thread title, but doesn't read the opening post. OP exactly specifies the required amount: annual income of 30K USD in today's purchasing power.

Funny that we are ON page 8, of this thread, and OP has NOT chimed in to clarify his intent and/or to state whether we are getting close to helping him to answer his question.  Surely, there were some individual factors that were left out of the OP - but he did give us quite a bit to work with and to extrapolate upon.. and yes, some of us have deviated to some extent from some of the parameters of the OP.

Even though the various tangents in this thread could be helpful to other readers of the thread, sometimes it is also nice, and helpful, if OP could chime in to let us know if our various responses are helping him/her.

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[JayJuanGee]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

[DannyElfman]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins

[JayJuanGee]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins

Details remain important in any financial planning, including questions regarding whether the investor continues to invest and/or monitor over the investment over years, or if the investor just sets aside the investment and hold. 

Setting aside and holding could work, except what does a person do with the ongoing flow of fiat (invest in BTC or some other asset or just blow it)?

And, usually, income goes up through the years, and a person is able to buy more of asset X or Y or Z or to dedicate a higher portion of income to investing... but it is NOT a given that a person will plan to invest over the coming years if the person sets aside and consumes nearly all of his/her paycheck.

[DannyElfman]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins

Details remain important in any financial planning, including questions regarding whether the investor continues to invest and/or monitor over the investment over years, or if the investor just sets aside the investment and hold. 

Setting aside and holding could work, except what does a person do with the ongoing flow of fiat (invest in BTC or some other asset or just blow it)?

And, usually, income goes up through the years, and a person is able to buy more of asset X or Y or Z or to dedicate a higher portion of income to investing... but it is NOT a given that a person will plan to invest over the coming years if the person sets aside and consumes nearly all of his/her paycheck.

True, I think I missread the messege of CEG5952.

Best would be to gradually increase holding to get to 25 BTC. The risk with this is that the BTC price could explode before you reach any near 25 BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC.  

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?    
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?  

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins

Details remain important in any financial planning, including questions regarding whether the investor continues to invest and/or monitor over the investment over years, or if the investor just sets aside the investment and hold.  

Setting aside and holding could work, except what does a person do with the ongoing flow of fiat (invest in BTC or some other asset or just blow it)?

And, usually, income goes up through the years, and a person is able to buy more of asset X or Y or Z or to dedicate a higher portion of income to investing... but it is NOT a given that a person will plan to invest over the coming years if the person sets aside and consumes nearly all of his/her paycheck.

True, I think I missread the messege of CEG5952.

Best would be to gradually increase holding to get to 25 BTC. The risk with this is that the BTC price could explode before you reach any near 25 BTC.

Disclaimer---- Currently, I hold more than 25 BTC, too.   

Danny:  I think that you and I are on more  or less the same page in our attempts to figure out an investment strategy that an investor who is attempting to achieve 25 BTC in 5-6 years could employ, yet there still do remain some devil in the details regarding current holdings.. and the fact that it will likely take a lot more fiat in the future to buy the same amount of BTC.

For example, if I had ONLY just heard about BTC, yet I was attempting to figure out what to do, I would likely read up upon it quickly in order to figure out my investment strategy, and if I came to the conclusion that BTC seemed to be a good investment avenue, I would likely attempt to front load my investment and then dollar cost average the remaining of the term.  

Also, I would probably end up over achieving the 25 BTC, just to have a cushion.  

Also, it is likely that I would also notice that BTC prices have been in a downward trend for 9 months but that BTC has had history of magnificent exponential growth--- and there is NO real evidence to establish that some similar exponential growth could NOT occur.. and in fact it appears that there could be exponential growth any time in the very near future, which would cause me to invest a lot more early on.

Therefore, I would frontload as much as I could and then just hedge future price downswings by continuing to invest fiat into BTC on a dollar cost basis.... all of this with money that I feel that I could afford to lose... in the event that the whole thing comes crashing down.

[Ayers]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

also 100 btc at 10k each, faster i think, 10k is not that hard to get, especially in 5-6 years, one should aim at 1M dollar

[JayJuanGee]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.

also 100 btc at 10k each, faster i think, 10k is not that hard to get, especially in 5-6 years, one should aim at 1M dollar

Actually, this seems more realistic.... to achieve $1 million in 5-6 years...  Yet, there are quite a few people  (probably including a large number of those reading this thread) who are going to have trouble accumulating 100BTC within manageable reasonableness and to feel o.k. losing their investment (in the event that the whole BTC thing crashes)..   Currently, 100BTC is a $60k investment, which would be tough to manage for people just starting out... .unless they have accumulated assets in other categories that they are ready, willing and able to diversify into BTC holdings.

[Biodom]

Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

[JayJuanGee]

Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

The above in bold is NOT the question at the moment.  At the moment, the investment question pertains to BTC, and investing into BTC with your fiat. 

If you want to invest into an alt crypto-currency, then you need to ask different questions and consider those questions within a different framework... OP did NOT ask that question, and that question is only tangentially related to the subject of this thread..... However, to play along a little bit with your question, if you invest in BTC, NOW, then you can still continue to monitor the overall BTC situation, standing, adoption, network, long-term security and to switch as needed or if needed if that momentum seems to be changing.. and accordingly, switch, if needed, your investment over to google.. if google ends up taking over yahoo...

[Carra23]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

But there can be unforseen risks. Some of my investments might tank, there might be a big crisis. 10m is fine, except that I want to be doubly sure. Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

HELLO??   That is why you live within your means (live within the means of the passive income of the investment), and diversify the principle and possibly even continue to reinvest a portion of your income (meaning do NOT withdraw it). 

The extent to which you draw into your principle depends in part on your expectations and calculations regarding how long you expect to live or how many years you will be needing to draw income off of the principle.   

You should be able to easily live within your means between $5 and $10 million (that is between $20k and $40k per month).... If we are talking about amounts below $2million (b/c that would be less than $8k per month), then it may become a little more difficult, but it should be considerably manageable to figure out a way to live within your means and to allow the principle to continue to increase in value - especially when we are getting into the $5million and above arenas.

In any event with $5 to $10 million in principle, you should be able to figure out a way to live off of half of the interest (that is between $20k/2 and $40k/2 = $10K and $20k per month).  therefore, the principle will continue to increase in value, and you can continue to increase the amount of your withdrawal as your principle continues to grow.  Then you will have more money later in life and also a cushion and also the principle to fall back upon for your final years.

I repeat that if you need more than $10million as principle, then you should specify a reason for such need for more b/c merely stating that there could be unforeseen risks means that you have failed to adequately plan and/or to diversity and/or to live within your means.

We are going around in circles. I do not mind my work, actually somewhat like it too though I keep complaining about it the whole day, and try to sneak in as many breaks as possible. If I have to retire it will be to live large, not within my means.

[JayJuanGee]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

But there can be unforseen risks. Some of my investments might tank, there might be a big crisis. 10m is fine, except that I want to be doubly sure. Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

HELLO??   That is why you live within your means (live within the means of the passive income of the investment), and diversify the principle and possibly even continue to reinvest a portion of your income (meaning do NOT withdraw it).  

The extent to which you draw into your principle depends in part on your expectations and calculations regarding how long you expect to live or how many years you will be needing to draw income off of the principle.    

You should be able to easily live within your means between $5 and $10 million (that is between $20k and $40k per month).... If we are talking about amounts below $2million (b/c that would be less than $8k per month), then it may become a little more difficult, but it should be considerably manageable to figure out a way to live within your means and to allow the principle to continue to increase in value - especially when we are getting into the $5million and above arenas.

In any event with $5 to $10 million in principle, you should be able to figure out a way to live off of half of the interest (that is between $20k/2 and $40k/2 = $10K and $20k per month).  therefore, the principle will continue to increase in value, and you can continue to increase the amount of your withdrawal as your principle continues to grow.  Then you will have more money later in life and also a cushion and also the principle to fall back upon for your final years.

I repeat that if you need more than $10million as principle, then you should specify a reason for such need for more b/c merely stating that there could be unforeseen risks means that you have failed to adequately plan and/or to diversity and/or to live within your means.

We are going around in circles. I do not mind my work, actually somewhat like it too though I keep complaining about it the whole day, and try to sneak in as many breaks as possible. If I have to retire it will be to live large, not within my means.

You are correct that it seems that we are going in circles, yet I must clarify my understanding that "living with in your means" and "living large" are NOT mutually exclusive concepts.

In fact, it is my sense that "living within your means" can ensure that you are ABLE TO "live large" for a very long, long time.. b/c you did NOT blow all your wadd in blind exuberance.

[cbeast]

You won't be thinking about retiring on your bitcoins until you go through one of the big jumps and sell enough to live on for awhile. A good rule of thumb to planning a Bitcoin retirement: work and dollar cost average buy your bitcoins until you cant stand working anymore. You'll know it when you get there because you'll be calculating in your head what your bitcoins will be worth in a year.

[DannyElfman]

Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

You can't compare those two. Users of Yahoo do not have that kind of network effects like they do with BTC. Network effects in currency is the most important thing basically.

You can compare it to social networks though, and yes the myspace-facebook situation was remarkable and failure to evolve could kill bitcoin too.

[DannyElfman]

You won't be thinking about retiring on your bitcoins until you go through one of the big jumps and sell enough to live on for awhile. A good rule of thumb to planning a Bitcoin retirement: work and dollar cost average buy your bitcoins until you cant stand working anymore. You'll know it when you get there because you'll be calculating in your head what your bitcoins will be worth in a year.

Haha, I remember back in november, where I calculated how long BTC needs to keep rising until I'd never have to work again. Next bubble I guess^^

[Biodom]

Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

You can't compare those two. Users of Yahoo do not have that kind of network effects like they do with BTC. Network effects in currency is the most important thing basically.

You can compare it to social networks though, and yes the myspace-facebook situation was remarkable and failure to evolve could kill bitcoin too.

yes, what exactly NEW happened in bitcoin space in the last 9-10 mo, except squabbling about regulation and dealing with China, then MTGox?
Bitcoin usage is also basically flat during the same time frame.

[BTCfaucetTIME]

I am hoping no more then 8 or 9 as that is how many I have now

[JayJuanGee]

You won't be thinking about retiring on your bitcoins until you go through one of the big jumps and sell enough to live on for awhile. A good rule of thumb to planning a Bitcoin retirement: work and dollar cost average buy your bitcoins until you cant stand working anymore. You'll know it when you get there because you'll be calculating in your head what your bitcoins will be worth in a year.

I agree with your points here, except the points relating know when you get there and calculating what bitcoins will be worth in a year... you do NOT know when you get there by calculating worth in a year, but by calculating worth in the present and knowing that you can easily live off of the worth in the presence with plenty cushion to ensure current wealth preservation... future appreciation should be another story as compared to the situation regarding knowing that you are already adequately there.

[DannyElfman]

I am hoping no more then 8 or 9 as that is how many I have now

There are still 6 year to buy more of those juicy coins

[JayJuanGee]

Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

You can't compare those two. Users of Yahoo do not have that kind of network effects like they do with BTC. Network effects in currency is the most important thing basically.

You can compare it to social networks though, and yes the myspace-facebook situation was remarkable and failure to evolve could kill bitcoin too.

yes, what exactly NEW happened in bitcoin space in the last 9-10 mo, except squabbling about regulation and dealing with China, then MTGox?
Bitcoin usage is also basically flat during the same time frame.

If you see the bitcoin space as flat in the last 10 months, except for the negatives that you listed, then you are quite blind and/or biased. 

I am questioning whether it is even worth any time to list, describe and or characterize positive developments in the BTC space in the past 10 months - b/c a lot of them should be obvious for anyone paying attention to bitcoin developments (beyond potentially dwelling upon price and/or market cap) during this period.