20ph increase in btc mining network

[Honeycutt22]

Where did it come from? Sp30s?

[jonnybravo0311]

Where did it come from? Sp30s?

Normal network variance swings.  Sure, there is always some new hardware being added, but think about what you're saying.  4000+ SP30s added in the past few days?

[Honeycutt22]

Where did it come from? Sp30s?

Normal network variance swings.  Sure, there is always some new hardware being added, but think about what you're saying.  4000+ SP30s added in the past few days?

Was just guessing, wasn't sure if it was the premine some companies do before release or test mining or whatever. This is actually a pretty high amount of PH compared to the last couple weeks.

[philipma1957]

Where did it come from? Sp30s?

Normal network variance swings.  Sure, there is always some new hardware being added, but think about what you're saying.  4000+ SP30s added in the past few days?

Was just guessing, wasn't sure if it was the premine some companies do before release or test mining or whatever. This is actually a pretty high amount of PH compared to the last couple weeks.

may be variance flux.  have to watch it. if it drops to  5ph it was variance.

[Bitsaurus]

See the thread here (which was just 2 threads under yours)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=724865.0

It can easily be attributed to variance unless some other information is shown.

[RoadStress]

As far as I know there are only 1k SP30 units in the August batch so it can't be them. I say it's variance + a mix of SP-Tech and bitmain hardware being deployed.

[petersiddle98]

As far as I know there are only 1k SP30 units in the August batch so it can't be them. I say it's variance + a mix of SP-Tech and bitmain hardware being deployed.

Where do you get such information? they might have like 10k units under testing...

[RoadStress]

As far as I know there are only 1k SP30 units in the August batch so it can't be them. I say it's variance + a mix of SP-Tech and bitmain hardware being deployed.

Where do you get such information? they might have like 10k units under testing...

Their capacity production and resources are limited. You can't just build 10k units out of thin air and you need more than 10M-20M$ upfront money.

This increase is from Bitfury's DC in Iceland.

[philipma1957]

As far as I know there are only 1k SP30 units in the August batch so it can't be them. I say it's variance + a mix of SP-Tech and bitmain hardware being deployed.

Where do you get such information? they might have like 10k units under testing...

Their capacity production and resources are limited. You can't just build 10k units out of thin air and you need more than 10M-20M$ upfront money.

This increase is from Bitfury's DC in Iceland.

yes and they pay 3 to 4 cents a kwatt underclock and undervolt their chips.  so even though the gear is not as power efficient as the sp30.

  the low power price allows them to run at a profit.  for the sake of argument  they get 1 watt per 1 gh  at 3.5 cents a kwatt   they can make good money.

 lets say 20 ph costs them 10 mill usd to build  lets say it pulls 20,000 kwatts btc stays stable at 585 usd and diff does 12%  they make a fuck load of money.

 I get 10 mill in  returns 27 mill so that is about 17 mill profit in about 1 year

if you use 15% diff 10 mill in returns  22 mill that is about 12 mill profit in 270 days

even if you use  20% diff  10 mill in returns 16 mill that is about 6 mill profit in 200 days

[cloverme]

During this same period, the hashrate distribution for Discus Fish went from 22% to 29% and in the last 24 hours has more hashrate now than ghash.io.

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

Could be a variance... in the end, only difficulty will matter.

[Honeycutt22]

During this same period, the hashrate distribution for Discus Fish went from 22% to 29% and in the last 24 hours has more hashrate now than ghash.io.

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

Could be a variance... in the end, only difficulty will matter.

True and that's my concern.. At this rate we'll have a 20% to 25% jump in difficulty.

[philipma1957]

During this same period, the hashrate distribution for Discus Fish went from 22% to 29% and in the last 24 hours has more hashrate now than ghash.io.

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

Could be a variance... in the end, only difficulty will matter.

True and that's my concern.. At this rate we'll have a 20% to 25% jump in difficulty.

no  still under 12%

  the network is getting very large.  so 25% jumps are not easy to do.

here look at

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  they read 19,729 to 21,317 or 8.05%

http://bitcoincharts.com/ -----------------> they read 19,729 to 20,666 or 4.72 %

they average to ________________> 19,729 to 20,992 or  6.39 %

The network may be 180 to 195ph the exact number is not sure.

Some of the jumps to drops is variance some is gear.

We are early in the jump/diff for this period but I see us under 12% as the worst.

[Bitsaurus]

Yeah this jump looks like it will be larger.  The network had bad luck on the last difficulty according to OoC network analysis - some larger pools up to 15% bad luck.  So if we have good luck this period we might see a good 20 to 25% jump.

[suman66]

Is any increasing in speed affects the difficulty so is this profitable again if i invest in mining

[Gumbork]

Is any increasing in speed affects the difficulty so is this profitable again if i invest in mining

Actually, the higher the difficulty the less profit to mine..

[philipma1957]

Yeah this jump looks like it will be larger.  The network had bad luck on the last difficulty according to OoC network analysis - some larger pools up to 15% bad luck.  So if we have good luck this period we might see a good 20 to 25% jump.

20-25% is just too much


From https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin           Difficulty:      19,729,645,941

Estimated Next Difficulty:   22,040,551,579 (+11.71%)

Block Generation Time      1 block: 9.1 minutes

From http://bitcoincharts.com


Difficulty   19729645941

Estimated   20913565978 in 1449 blks

Blocks/hour   6.87 / 524 s


the above two sites use different methods to predict.   

 but a real key is the blocks per hour

 6 per hour = 0 growth

or 1 block every 10 minute = 0 growth

we are in a 9-12% area at this moment which is far off from 20-25%

Also remember if you are opening a huge farm like cex.io did  they want to do it on the day after diff jumped.

It seems that was done whatever you see now will not be as bad. 

I really don't see growth to be a big deal like it was.

 just remember gpus used around 300 watts for 1gh and were still able to earn some money as late as spring of 2013

now 2 watt gear sucks.  you really want 1 watt or less. 

with .6 = sp30 and .75 s-3  the kings.        300 to .6 is a 500 to one increase  april 2013 diff  was  10,076,293  current diff is   19,729,645,941

  that is 1900 to one

 price   was about 150-240 in april so say 190 avg price now is 580 so 3 to 1 

 so take the 1900 divide by 3 = and the price weighted diff jump is around 633 to one

 that is in the ball park of the power efficiency and the price increase.

 I do feel new growth can not be much higher then 12-15 %  for the simple reason the big money guys do the same calculations I am doing.

 They then decide that  making a 100ph farm does not pay with current power + price ratios.

[SMB-2525]

For nail biting hourly(ish) updates to the hash rate, be sure to check back here:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Linked from:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Almost as much fun as watching the S&P 500.

[Easy2Mine]

@philipma1957

Your analysis are most of the time very well thought and good, but you forgot miners who can buy in bulk.
Up 50 Th in 1 go get a reasonable discount, but these whales that come into play now, build their own miners.
Which is incredible cheap to do in China.
They shipped them with pallets to their farm with low electricity costs.
The small guys who bought their gear expensive and have high electricity rates are pushed out of the mining game, which will decrease the difficulty a bit in favour of the big whales and the other small miners who have cheap electricity.

At the end these bastards take a big cut from the pie.
Even for miners with a few hundreds Terahash who don't have electricity costs below 10 cents are having tough times.

[SMB-2525]

What are Chinese electrical costs? Don't they import a fair amount of their thermal coal?

[skuser]

The shortterm computed hashrate keeps at ultra high levels so it really looks like we are gonna experience another 20%+ shock...I ve been watching http://currenthashrate.com lately