Yeah this jump looks like it will be larger. The network had bad luck on the last difficulty according to OoC network analysis - some larger pools up to 15% bad luck. So if we have good luck this period we might see a good 20 to 25% jump.
20-25% is just too much
From
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 19,729,645,941
Estimated Next Difficulty: 22,040,551,579 (+11.71%)
Block Generation Time 1 block: 9.1 minutes
From
http://bitcoincharts.comDifficulty 19729645941
Estimated 20913565978 in 1449 blks
Blocks/hour 6.87 / 524 s
the above two sites use different methods to predict.
but a real key is the blocks per hour
6 per hour = 0 growth
or 1 block every 10 minute = 0 growth
we are in a 9-12% area at this moment which is far off from 20-25%
Also remember if you are opening a huge farm like cex.io did they want to do it on the day after diff jumped.
It seems that was done whatever you see now will not be as bad.
I really don't see growth to be a big deal like it was.
just remember gpus used around 300 watts for 1gh and were still able to earn some money as late as spring of 2013
now 2 watt gear sucks. you really want 1 watt or less.
with .6 = sp30 and .75 s-3 the kings. 300 to .6 is a 500 to one increase april 2013 diff was 10,076,293 current diff is 19,729,645,941
that is 1900 to one
price was about 150-240 in april so say 190 avg price now is 580 so 3 to 1
so take the 1900 divide by 3 = and the price weighted diff jump is around 633 to one
that is in the ball park of the power efficiency and the price increase.
I do feel new growth can not be much higher then 12-15 % for the simple reason the big money guys do the same calculations I am doing.
They then decide that making a 100ph farm does not pay with current power + price ratios.