I thought about this and I wonder why Asic builders don't stop building?

[philipma1957]

Very  simple the network is 210ph or whatever it is.

There are 4 or 5 big builders of gear.

bitfury
bitmaintech
bfl?
spondoolies?
Asicminer
KNC
Black Arrow


If they have 1 watt per gh or less gear and mine.  They do not need to sell a thing.

Diff freezes at 2 or 3 %  they make solid money mining.

So why aren't they all freezing sales?

bitfury they have not sold to miners in a while

bfl  they sold they don't deliver

KNC they sold they don't deliver

Black Arrow they sold they don't deliver

bitmaintech has gone to preorders

spondoolies sp30 was a pre order

only asicminer is delivering and it is above 1 watt

this seems to be a very familiar pattern  

[taipo]

Spondooley and Bitmain might stop selling soon too.

[ABitNut]

Very  simple the network is 210ph or whatever it is.

There are 4 or 5 big builders of gear.

bitfury
bitmaintech
bfl?
spondoolies?
Asicminer
KNC
Black Arrow


If they have 1 watt per gh or less gear and mine.  They do not need to sell a thing.

Diff freezes at 2 or 3 %  they make solid money mining.

So why aren't they all freezing sales?

bitfury they have not sold to miners in a while

bfl  they sold they don't deliver

KNC they sold they don't deliver

Black Arrow they sold they don't deliver

bitmaintech has gone to preorders

spondoolies sp30 was a pre order

only asicminer is delivering and it is above 1 watt

this seems to be a very familiar pattern  

They don't stop because they want a bigger piece of the pie. If one supplier stops producing, it's relative (to the others) hashing power goes down. Their revenue goes down.

And do you think all the big players can reach an agreement and will trust each other to fulfill it? Most of the manufactures have questionable ethics, and the incentive to be the only one increasing hashing power is pretty big.

[Easy2Mine]

It's not that Bitmain won't deliver.
28nm is different than 40nm or up.
You have to get in line to order your wafers.
You don't have to wait for all the older process nodes.

[lowbander80]

They will stop producing when the production cost or mining cost will be in the edge and this is far away as they still producing....

if situation continues like this most probably I will not get into new purchases of miners as this and next
week we have 20+20 % increase in difficulty....

One factor that may change this is the price of BTC if it goes up I still buy miners

Well difficult to take the correct decetion...

[madken7777]

The production cost is quite low once you have the chip.

The reason why you see them keep selling and even mining themselves because their cost is way lower than an average miner.

[philipma1957]

The production cost is quite low once you have the chip.

The reason why you see them keep selling and even mining themselves because their cost is way lower than an average miner.

my point exactly if the top 5 don't sell for 6 weeks starting today growth will be tiny and they can all mine at a profit..   you would hardly see any real increase in the network.  hmmm  what were the last few diffs lets see:

  june 29 to jul 12 3%
 july 12 to july 25 8%
 july 25 to aug 08 5 %    so for 42 days it looks like they did this.

then someone broke ranks aug 08 to aug 19    maybe bitfury

here is my point they no longer need to sell much to us and they can all mine at a profit    as long as they have 1 watt gear and pay 10 cents a k watt they make money.

they do not need growth .  at 1 watt and 10 cents a kwatt  they will all make a fortune if the stifle growth and keep it at 2-5%

[Biodom]

The production cost is quite low once you have the chip.

The reason why you see them keep selling and even mining themselves because their cost is way lower than an average miner.

my point exactly if the top 5 don't sell for 6 weeks starting today growth will be tiny and they can all mine at a profit..   you would hardly see any real increase in the network.  hmmm  what were the last few diffs lets see:

  june 29 to jul 12 3%
 july 12 to july 25 8%
 july 25 to aug 08 5 %    so for 42 days it looks like they did this.

then someone broke ranks aug 08 to aug 19    maybe bitfury

here is my point they no longer need to sell much to us and they can all mine at a profit    as long as they have 1 watt gear and pay 10 cents a k watt they make money.

they do not need growth .  at 1 watt and 10 cents a kwatt  they will all make a fortune if the stifle growth and keep it at 2-5%

you have valid logic and it suites me just fine as well: I have as many S3 as I want at home and as many as I want SP-30 coming for hosting.
Flat network would be darn perfect at this point, but i don't think manufacturers will play this game because of bitfury indulgence.
they feel that they have to respond, and we (miners) are getting pummelled in the absence of any price growth in the last 10 mo (on average).

[Cablez]

Wasn't there a mining consortium meeting in China just recently?   Maybe they were discussing such a plan?

[xstr8guy]

The thing that's being forgotten is...

Just because many of the manufacturers aren't currently selling mining gear to the public doesn't mean that they aren't building tons and tons of hardware. They continue to build for themselves and other massive private mining operations.

[DrG]

If you can sell a $100 miner to the public for $500 why not?  Then you can take the $500 in revenue and buy 5 of your own in-house miners and the net result would be 6 units added to the network at the cost of 1 to the miner company.  The miner company would get 500% the hash/$ as you do and have minimal downside with increasing difficulty.

If they didn't have plans to do so now they do 

[xstr8guy]

If you can sell a $100 miner to the public for $500 why not?  Then you can take the $500 in revenue and buy 5 of your own in-house miners and the net result would be 6 units added to the network at the cost of 1 to the miner company.  The miner company would get 500% the hash/$ as you do and have minimal downside with increasing difficulty.

If they didn't have plans to do so now they do 

Lol, that's the business model they used to fund their companies. Now they don't have to deal with all of the hassles of retail sales.

I'm guessing that they just prefer not do deal with the public for the marginal profit from selling 1000 miners when they can just build them by the container-load for themselves and other large operations.

Sure, it goes against everything bitcoin was founded on. But there's nothing we can do to stop this freight train now. It's just going to run us over before it crashes at the end of the line all while slowly destroying bitcoin in the process.

[Chopperman]

If you can sell a $100 miner to the public for $500 why not?  Then you can take the $500 in revenue and buy 5 of your own in-house miners and the net result would be 6 units added to the network at the cost of 1 to the miner company.  The miner company would get 500% the hash/$ as you do and have minimal downside with increasing difficulty.

If they didn't have plans to do so now they do 

Lol, that's the business model they used to fund their companies. Now they don't have to deal with all of the hassles of retail sales.

I'm guessing that they just prefer not do deal with the public for the marginal profit from selling 1000 miners when they can just build them by the container-load for themselves and other large operations.

Sure, it goes against everything bitcoin was founded on. But there's nothing we can do to stop this freight train now. It's just going to run us over before it crashes at the end of the line all while slowly destroying bitcoin in the process.

Agreed 100%. BFL is sitting on much "free" money from the first ASIC generation, it doesn't matter how bad they make the second gen, they still win with this business model.

And to think that Yifu decided to design the Avalon because he was worried that BFL represented a threat to the future of Bitcoin by monopolizing production of mining equipment. 
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/3203/avalon-ships-bitcoins-first-consumer-asics/

[philipma1957]

If you can sell a $100 miner to the public for $500 why not?  Then you can take the $500 in revenue and buy 5 of your own in-house miners and the net result would be 6 units added to the network at the cost of 1 to the miner company.  The miner company would get 500% the hash/$ as you do and have minimal downside with increasing difficulty.

If they didn't have plans to do so now they do 

Lol, that's the business model they used to fund their companies. Now they don't have to deal with all of the hassles of retail sales.

I'm guessing that they just prefer not do deal with the public for the marginal profit from selling 1000 miners when they can just build them by the container-load for themselves and other large operations.

Sure, it goes against everything bitcoin was founded on. But there's nothing we can do to stop this freight train now. It's just going to run us over before it crashes at the end of the line all while slowly destroying bitcoin in the process.

Agreed 100%. BFL is sitting on much "free" money from the first ASIC generation, it doesn't matter how bad they make the second gen, they still win with this business model.

And to think that Yifu decided to design the Avalon because he was worried that BFL represented a threat to the future of Bitcoin by monopolizing production of mining equipment. 
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/3203/avalon-ships-bitcoins-first-consumer-asics/

yeah but that time has soooo past.

builders have reached the point that we the miner are pretty much completely  superfluous..   most small guys can do 3-5k watts  in a private home  1-2k watts in an apartment.

I can't even buy enough gear to mine 1 bitcoin a day if I run in house.  in the dead of the winter I could run 2 sp31's which would be 5.5kwatts and 11th    if this gear was in my hands now it would mine .23 btc a day.

I do agree they build 4 sell one to pay for all 4 and mine with 3.   I am saying they are stupid to do so they should freeze all sales and just mine  for about 50 days or 75 days do no growth or under 5% growth again and again..  The sell one and mine with 3 is growing the network at a speed that does not help them. It is also hurting btc price quite a bit.   

As they have to sell btc off and they sell it cheaply. Since none of them will mine and hold the coin.

[philipma1957]

Please forgive me for doing this but I am trying to sort all my diff threads. Mods I know it will clog front page for a while but in a day or two it will shift out of site.

thanks.

phil