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Author Topic: Argentina, on the verge of a new currency collapse  (Read 7118 times)
muyuu
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April 02, 2012, 02:36:00 PM
 #1

I have a number of Argentinian friends and they all agree that the warnings are clear: it's increasingly hard to exchange Arg.Pesos back to euros, dollars or pounds. Import/export regulation is also getting out of hand again.


Looks like we are about to have a second "corralito" or, failing that, hyperinflation. A chance for Bitcoin, maybe?

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April 02, 2012, 07:55:20 PM
 #2

I'm Argentinian. I don't know if we're going into a new collapse, but I'm embracing BTC from a long time now. But I hope for a quiet and easy transition where everything goes well for everybody...
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April 02, 2012, 10:45:33 PM
 #3

I see that Argentina is one of the countries where you can buy Bitcoins using SMS:
 - https://blockchain.info/wallet/sms-phone-deposits

Does this P2P exchange function?
 - http://wiki.eudemocracia.org/en/bitcoin
 - http://wiki.eudemocracia.org/?do=search&id=bitcoin

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April 02, 2012, 11:17:54 PM
 #4

I see that Argentina is one of the countries where you can buy Bitcoins using SMS:
 - https://blockchain.info/wallet/sms-phone-deposits

I didn't knew this one... Anyway this answer in the FAQ makes me don't even bother in trying:

Quote
Why is it more expensive than an exchange?

Unfortunately mobile phone operators charge a high fee to process phone payments, it is not us being greedy. Often paying by phone is cheaper than SMS and larger packages also tend to have better payouts.

Also, most cell phones companies here are nothing but ugly parasites. I don't want to feed them even more...

Edit: I did bothered in trying (yes, I'm helplessly curios), and it's way, way worse than I thought! I can only buy a small package on these terms:

You Pay: 5,01 ARS

You Receive: 0.03609625 BTC

That's more than 138ARS per BTC, when taking current rate of 5 USD per BTC and 4.38 ARS per USD, a BTC should be around 22ARS...



Important: Due lack of funds we are not currently exchanging bitcoins. Thus, if you are interested in associating with us and dividing benefits, please contact us. We are receiving at least one exchange request per week.

This has been there for a long time... I been thinking in getting in touch with them when I have everything more organized to help them start with that.
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April 02, 2012, 11:49:30 PM
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I'm Argentinian. I don't know if we're going into a new collapse, but I'm embracing BTC from a long time now. But I hope for a quiet and easy transition where everything goes well for everybody...

I also hope for a quiet and easy transition but there are definite warning signs... my mates from Argentina are increasingly being denied exchange from pesos into dollars/euros/pounds in the same Argentinian banks where they bought them, even in the airport (Banca Nacional, for example). There's absurd measures like the prohibition to import books (did they backtrack on that one?), now they are trying to nationalise Repsol-YPF and trying their best to make it hard for foreign companies taking measures that seem desperate. Foreign investment must be fleeing as we speak as Cristina Fernandez and her measures become increasingly radical.

How big a % of their wealth do people keep in foreign currencies or precious metals? I bet they don't catch them again with all their money in pesos. Since they let the peso float there is no need for corralito this time, they will just print away...

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April 03, 2012, 01:15:05 AM
 #6

I also hope for a quiet and easy transition but there are definite warning signs... my mates from Argentina are increasingly being denied exchange from pesos into dollars/euros/pounds in the same Argentinian banks where they bought them, even in the airport (Banca Nacional, for example).

Yes, the government started controlling capitals late last year. We can't even use most services for sending money. And in order to buy foreign currencies, people has to be registered with the government, and even when you do, they're limits on how much you can buy...

There's absurd measures like the prohibition to import books (did they backtrack on that one?),

Yes, they seem very concerned about some unfavorable changes on their balance of trade and they are desperately (and mostly ridiculously) trying to keep things on track.

now they are trying to nationalise Repsol-YPF

This one can take a long analysis. YPF remained national until the nineties, when it was given away almost for free to private and foreign companies by a horrible government who was working for those modern financial and international pirates, and against the interest of all Argentine people. And with YPF also went everything else somewhat valuable that remained public until then.

I don't think that undoing such an injustice could be unjust in itself... Also Bolivia renationalised their natural resources, and they are doing well until now.

and trying their best to make it hard for foreign companies taking measures that seem desperate. Foreign investment must be fleeing as we speak as Cristina Fernandez and her measures become increasingly radical.

I don't think they're trying to make it hard for every single foreign company, but I understand that most foreign companies will feel that way. The problem with Argentina is that we have been robbed so much, so many times that most Argentines are hypersensitive, even some governors. Funny thing is that they're making everything hard for everybody, and maybe they're not going to even achieve their goals...

How big a % of their wealth do people keep in foreign currencies or precious metals? I bet they don't catch them again with all their money in pesos. Since they let the peso float there is no need for corralito this time, they will just print away...

Difficult to say. I guess you can found every possibility, from nothing at all to everything and a little more...

And yes, probably the government is going to print more if they need it, but mostly they're trying to handle things by rising the interest rates. Anyway, everybody here is very concerned about dollar price, and slowly it keeps going up...
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April 03, 2012, 02:05:06 AM
 #7

Thanks for the heads up.

Just a note on this part:
now they are trying to nationalise Repsol-YPF

This one can take a long analysis. YPF remained national until the nineties, when it was given away almost for free to private and foreign companies by a horrible government who was working for those modern financial and international pirates, and against the interest of all Argentine people. And with YPF also went everything else somewhat valuable that remained public until then.

I don't think that undoing such an injustice could be unjust in itself... Also Bolivia renationalised their natural resources, and they are doing well until now.

I wouldn't recommend following the Bolivian example. Bolivia surely is reaping the short-term rewards of having all these foreign explorations basically for free, but now they've become a high-risk investment and nobody will do business with them without a massive risk premium.

Governments have to own up for previous governments or nobody will invest long term in your country. Obviously there are abusive contracts and clear cases of corruption pandering, but then you bring the issue to the WTO, the European Parliament (Repsol-YPF is controlled by European capital mainly), the UN, or whatever other international organisation or tribunal you can get involved.

But just doing a Chavez/Correa/Morales-style grab without even trying any of the aforementioned measures will damage Argentina's reputation for trade. Well, to be honest this is happening already so they might as well go ahead and do it. But I think a timely U-turn on these policies would be less damaging long term. Although thinking long-term doesn't seem to be Latin countries' forte. Brazil, most surprisingly and even with Lula, decided to draw a line there and they are definitely getting rewarded for that (it was a natural move after having Petrobras massively shafted in Bolivia, so they know how does that work first hand).

The alternative is basically doing business with China alone, and then knowing they don't have to compete they will be ruthless like they are in Africa.

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April 03, 2012, 04:43:10 AM
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Time to invade the Falklands again to distract the populace!

Coming from a US citizen I know....   Pot. Kettle.  Black. 

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April 03, 2012, 01:51:35 PM
 #9

Thanks for the heads up.

Just a note on this part:
now they are trying to nationalise Repsol-YPF

This one can take a long analysis. YPF remained national until the nineties, when it was given away almost for free to private and foreign companies by a horrible government who was working for those modern financial and international pirates, and against the interest of all Argentine people. And with YPF also went everything else somewhat valuable that remained public until then.

I don't think that undoing such an injustice could be unjust in itself... Also Bolivia renationalised their natural resources, and they are doing well until now.

I wouldn't recommend following the Bolivian example. Bolivia surely is reaping the short-term rewards of having all these foreign explorations basically for free, but now they've become a high-risk investment and nobody will do business with them without a massive risk premium.

Governments have to own up for previous governments or nobody will invest long term in your country. Obviously there are abusive contracts and clear cases of corruption pandering, but then you bring the issue to the WTO, the European Parliament (Repsol-YPF is controlled by European capital mainly), the UN, or whatever other international organisation or tribunal you can get involved.

But just doing a Chavez/Correa/Morales-style grab without even trying any of the aforementioned measures will damage Argentina's reputation for trade. Well, to be honest this is happening already so they might as well go ahead and do it. But I think a timely U-turn on these policies would be less damaging long term. Although thinking long-term doesn't seem to be Latin countries' forte. Brazil, most surprisingly and even with Lula, decided to draw a line there and they are definitely getting rewarded for that (it was a natural move after having Petrobras massively shafted in Bolivia, so they know how does that work first hand).

The alternative is basically doing business with China alone, and then knowing they don't have to compete they will be ruthless like they are in Africa.

Hopefully bitcoin could be a tool which can help on turning all this concerns obsolete. I'm longing and working for that. The profound and unfair distribution of wealth and power which we (as in all humanity) are trailing since almost forever is the big problem here. Imperial governments imposing terms on smaller governments. Small governments imposing terms on even smaller governments, and so on until we found ridiculously minuscule governments (of which fatherhood patriarchy may be the smaller unit) imposing terms on people, turning everybody into semiconscious slaves serving foreign interests for ever...

Hopefully bitcoin and all the free movements would be able to bypass those mad structures to become whole new institutions centered mainly on freedom and well being for everybody...

Time to invade the Falklands again to distract the populace!

Coming from a US citizen I know....   Pot. Kettle.  Black. 

Yes, as almost every other government out there, our history has being full of crazy and stupid people... Maybe central governments in themselves are craziness in itself...
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April 03, 2012, 02:42:43 PM
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I still think I don't understand Argentina but after talking to a passionate Peronismo I think I start to finally understand.

Basically the idea here is that you can protect against outside market forces with protectionism. By putting a tax on outside imports you can also build a local industry to protect against the outside world. If the UK was dependant on Argentina for food like Tibets allies for China it wouldn't be able to have the Malvinas.

People still don't have a massive amount in their bank accounts... it still seems like a cash society.

I expect there will be a crash again... but I don't think it will be for a while.

Education has all the faults in the system from Europe and America were copied but in addition haven't been updated in the same way. My girlfriend wasn't taught about electronics for example and has no clue regarding how much energy a laptop uses if plugged in, there's no financials taught and so on. Everybody here is into electronics but it's much rarer to meet someone who know's much about computers than it is in the USA. Electronics are much more of a status symbol but there's less addiction/reliance to technology (which is great).

 Things are changing extremely fast though and it seems like only a few years and there could be an explosion. You can get Android tablets for less than $150 even here with import controls and flicking through a flyer for mobile phones nearly all are assembled here locally so Android phones are also coming down in price.

Many things are very expensive here and I have not much idea of where people get the money to buy it all from.

Certainly Bitcoin is useful here now for all things digital. For example, paying for webhosting. But if you want to buy anything from abroad you're always wondering will it get across the border.

Probably a good idea to write "Que es Bitcoin" on a few bank notes

Explaination of Gox mess up here. They are running custom wallets and a bug allowed double payments: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/cf99yac
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April 03, 2012, 09:54:18 PM
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I still think I don't understand Argentina but after talking to a passionate Peronismo I think I start to finally understand.

Yes, every foreigner seem to find difficult to understand Argentina. Maybe we are a little incomprehensible...

Basically the idea here is that you can protect against outside market forces with protectionism. By putting a tax on outside imports you can also build a local industry to protect against the outside world. If the UK was dependant on Argentina for food like Tibets allies for China it wouldn't be able to have the Malvinas.

We have political movements sustaining something like that, indeed. But you also have others sustaining quite the opposite. Our major problem may be that we don't have a lot in the middle. Here everything seems to be an extreme or the other. You can be black or white, peronista or antiperonista, River or Boca, religious or antireligios and so it goes...

Also protectionism is not such a crazy idea nor are we the only ones trying to protect ourselves. EEUU itself has been historically subsiding their farmers at the same time they was preaching and enforcing their free market religion on every other country out there...

And latests collective protectionism measures seem to have been working somewhat fine for Mercosur allies, at least we can say that latest world crisis (Greece default now, and the EEUU housing bubble before) hasn't been terrible here, if they has been felt at all...

People still don't have a massive amount in their bank accounts... it still seems like a cash society.

Yes, I already said that people has been robbed so much, so many times, and most of the times by the banks themselves, that somewhat this fear becomes almost understandable...

I expect there will be a crash again... but I don't think it will be for a while.

Everything can happen. But I hope this time we're doing a little better...

Education has all the faults in the system from Europe and America were copied but in addition haven't been updated in the same way. My girlfriend wasn't taught about electronics for example and has no clue regarding how much energy a laptop uses if plugged in, there's no financials taught and so on. Everybody here is into electronics but it's much rarer to meet someone who know's much about computers than it is in the USA. Electronics are much more of a status symbol but there's less addiction/reliance to technology (which is great).

I can see what you mean, but I believe the effect is more pronounced on girls, because of a strongly patriarchal system. Almost all Argentinian girlfriends fits almost perfectly on your description, but I don't think this is so true for all men...

Things are changing extremely fast though and it seems like only a few years and there could be an explosion. You can get Android tablets for less than $150 even here with import controls and flicking through a flyer for mobile phones nearly all are assembled here locally so Android phones are also coming down in price.

That's what the government are trying to enforce with some of the protectionism. They want foreign companies to come here to build their stuff, so they can catch some of the added value... In some cases it goes well, but not always...

Many things are very expensive here and I have not much idea of where people get the money to buy it all from.

Inequity is the answer. Terribly pyramidal distribution of wealth. In all latinoamerica you'll find a few people unimaginable rich, and a lot of people unspeakable poor. It also happens in the "first world", but we don't see it a lot on tv... But sometimes a Katrina can bring it to the surface...

Certainly Bitcoin is useful here now for all things digital. For example, paying for webhosting. But if you want to buy anything from abroad you're always wondering will it get across the border.

That's true. Theoretically anything below 999U$D sent through postal services should pass just fine. But you can't never know for sure.
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April 03, 2012, 11:41:46 PM
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Argentina is very interesting for all those places for whom are expecting a crash.

What I can't understand is that if one goes to Banco Piano and buys gold and then sells it in just 3 weeks you've likely made a small profit,
 I would have though that would be popular but I don't see ques of people there after pay day. Perhaps there's a tax on it.

Land is popular but when you come to sell it the inflation makes it look like it's gone up in value when in fact it hasn't.

 I wonder if people not exactly refuse to take part in the money machine but try to ignore it as best as possible and enjoy life as best as possible.

 People just get on with life with some tenacity, I just don't fully know how. There's a lot people can learn from here. In Europe people complain at 7% inflation but here it's been 25% for years and somehow life goes on. I don't know many economies that could go on and yet this one does.
 How can an economy survive at 25% for so long?

 What I find frightening though is that even after being shafted for so long and so many times there are still people here who have resumed life similar to before the crash, without taking precautions;
using banks, accepting a fixed wage rather than establishing a business etc


 Protectionism vs free market is such a cyclic political thing we just can't seem to escape for hundreds of years.

Explaination of Gox mess up here. They are running custom wallets and a bug allowed double payments: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/cf99yac
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April 04, 2012, 08:20:46 AM
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Basically the idea here is that you can protect against outside market forces with protectionism. By putting a tax on outside imports you can also build a local industry to protect against the outside world. If the UK was dependant on Argentina for food like Tibets allies for China it wouldn't be able to have the Malvinas.

On protectionism.  What its proponents never seem to get is that a trade deficit is balanced by a current account surplus.  In other words, the more you import, the more foreign investment you get.  That's before even considering that other countries will introduce retaliatory measures.

Adam Smith covered this about 200 years ago; and yet most countries still don't get it.  (The USA is particularly prone to listening to protectionist rhetoric).

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April 04, 2012, 02:42:13 PM
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An Economy the Size of Argentina simply doesn't collapes.

They restructure.

Of course there will be a few winners (speculators) and a whole bunch of loosers (rest of the population)

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April 04, 2012, 03:46:58 PM
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An Economy the Size of Argentina simply doesn't collapes.

They restructure.

Of course there will be a few winners (speculators) and a whole bunch of loosers (rest of the population)

Potato. Potato.  (doesn't work as well in a text-only medium, that one)

I'm fairly sure that the "whole bunch of losers" will confidently label that "restructuring" a "collapse".

What do you think a "collapse" means other than there being huge number of losers?

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April 04, 2012, 05:12:53 PM
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An Economy the Size of Argentina simply doesn't collapes.

They restructure.

Of course there will be a few winners (speculators) and a whole bunch of loosers (rest of the population)

Potato. Potato.  (doesn't work as well in a text-only medium, that one)

I'm fairly sure that the "whole bunch of losers" will confidently label that "restructuring" a "collapse".

What do you think a "collapse" means other than there being huge number of losers?


LOL!!  Best laugh I've had all day.

Restructuring is a term used by those that aren't decimated by large scale instability.  Vite would make a great politician.

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April 07, 2012, 02:49:14 PM
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Argentina is very interesting for all those places for whom are expecting a crash.

What I can't understand is that if one goes to Banco Piano and buys gold and then sells it in just 3 weeks you've likely made a small profit,
 I would have though that would be popular but I don't see ques of people there after pay day. Perhaps there's a tax on it.

Land is popular but when you come to sell it the inflation makes it look like it's gone up in value when in fact it hasn't.

I wonder if people not exactly refuse to take part in the money machine but try to ignore it as best as possible and enjoy life as best as possible.

I think that most people here is just not accustomed to measure value in anything else than local currencies, us dollars, and maybe land and housing.

People just get on with life with some tenacity, I just don't fully know how. There's a lot people can learn from here. In Europe people complain at 7% inflation but here it's been 25% for years and somehow life goes on. I don't know many economies that could go on and yet this one does.
 How can an economy survive at 25% for so long?

 What I find frightening though is that even after being shafted for so long and so many times there are still people here who have resumed life similar to before the crash, without taking precautions;
using banks, accepting a fixed wage rather than establishing a business etc

Inflation, as any other economic variable, is something you get accustomed to live with after a while. People just design their strategies for survival and goes on with their lives. Even most of them do it intuitively, without having a real clue that their are doing it... For most of them everything It's just the way it is...

Protectionism vs free market is such a cyclic political thing we just can't seem to escape for hundreds of years.

Basically the idea here is that you can protect against outside market forces with protectionism. By putting a tax on outside imports you can also build a local industry to protect against the outside world. If the UK was dependant on Argentina for food like Tibets allies for China it wouldn't be able to have the Malvinas.

On protectionism.  What its proponents never seem to get is that a trade deficit is balanced by a current account surplus.  In other words, the more you import, the more foreign investment you get.  That's before even considering that other countries will introduce retaliatory measures.

Adam Smith covered this about 200 years ago; and yet most countries still don't get it.  (The USA is particularly prone to listening to protectionist rhetoric).


One of the problems with free market evangelists is that they want everybody else to wide open their economies, but they always keep protecting themselves.

And concerning the foreign investment that should balance the current account when you open your economy, the problem with it is that most of those investments are only after big and fast profits, and they usually give a damn about the long term welfare of the target economy. If they can take a quick and big profit by destroying the economy, they will do so, and they has historically done it. All colonialism has being (and still is) nothing but examples of this point... And we, colonized countries, live with it everyday.
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April 09, 2012, 02:27:54 AM
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And concerning the foreign investment that should balance the current account when you open your economy, the problem with it is that most of those investments are only after big and fast profits, and they usually give a damn about the long term welfare of the target economy. If they can take a quick and big profit by destroying the economy, they will do so, and they has historically done it. All colonialism has being (and still is) nothing but examples of this point... And we, colonized countries, live with it everyday.

This is why Argentina is such a disaster. Most of the people think (like you) that investment equals invasion, and that government intervention (violence) is a legitimate way to solve problems.

The state can not solve problems; the state IS the problem (no one taught you this at school precisely because it is true).

As for the situation here, the worst part of the cycle is just beginning. I think it will take a lot of blood before things start to improve, but this is perfectly predictable: collapse -> privatization -> stability, growth -> state expansion -> collapse. Like everywhere else, but with greater intensity and frequency.

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April 09, 2012, 07:00:49 PM
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And concerning the foreign investment that should balance the current account when you open your economy, the problem with it is that most of those investments are only after big and fast profits, and they usually give a damn about the long term welfare of the target economy. If they can take a quick and big profit by destroying the economy, they will do so, and they has historically done it. All colonialism has being (and still is) nothing but examples of this point... And we, colonized countries, live with it everyday.

This is why Argentina is such a disaster. Most of the people think (like you) that investment equals invasion, and that government intervention (violence) is a legitimate way to solve problems.

The state can not solve problems; the state IS the problem (no one taught you this at school precisely because it is true).

As for the situation here, the worst part of the cycle is just beginning. I think it will take a lot of blood before things start to improve, but this is perfectly predictable: collapse -> privatization -> stability, growth -> state expansion -> collapse. Like everywhere else, but with greater intensity and frequency.

Please, don't put words in my mouth. If you read the whole thread you'll see what I think about government:

The profound and unfair distribution of wealth and power which we (as in all humanity) are trailing since almost forever is the big problem here. Imperial governments imposing terms on smaller governments. Small governments imposing terms on even smaller governments, and so on until we found ridiculously minuscule governments (of which fatherhood patriarchy may be the smaller unit) imposing terms on people, turning everybody into semiconscious slaves serving foreign interests for ever...

Time to invade the Falklands again to distract the populace!

Coming from a US citizen I know....   Pot. Kettle.  Black. 

Yes, as almost every other government out there, our history has being full of crazy and stupid people... Maybe central governments in themselves are craziness in itself...

And if you had mining companies all around your country, blowing up every mountain, enslaving people, throwing away tons of clean water, and contaminating everything with cyanide you may give a second thought about some investments. Governments are shit, but greedy companies are just a private form of government, even shittier than public governments. And sadly both (government and private companies) are on the same side of the coin. We, most people, are on the other side. All alone.

Edit:

@majamalu:

Are you Argentine?

Do you think that ANY investment would be ok?
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April 09, 2012, 08:10:42 PM
 #20

And if you had mining companies all around your country, blowing

Speaking of mining companies in Argentina: It may be a good idea to mine bitcoins.
How much do you pay for electric power? 

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April 09, 2012, 08:55:32 PM
 #21

And if you had mining companies all around your country, blowing

Speaking of mining companies in Argentina: It may be a good idea to mine bitcoins.
How much do you pay for electric power? 

Yes, some of us are mining coins. Electric power was really really cheap until a while back because it was subsidized. Now the subsidies are ending, but I'll surely keep doing it.
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April 09, 2012, 10:22:12 PM
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@majamalu:

Are you Argentine?

Do you think that ANY investment would be ok?

I'm not majamalu and I'm not from Argentina but I do think any investment is ok. The investment in itself cannot do wrong, the same as money itself cannot do wrong. It's plain wrong to mix up criminals and criminal acts from the innocent means they may use.

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April 10, 2012, 12:00:07 AM
 #23

@majamalu:

Are you Argentine?

Do you think that ANY investment would be ok?

I'm not majamalu and I'm not from Argentina but I do think any investment is ok. The investment in itself cannot do wrong, the same as money itself cannot do wrong. It's plain wrong to mix up criminals and criminal acts from the innocent means they may use.

So if this nice people is investing a ton million WHATEVERUNITOFVALUEYOULIKE$ to setup a beautiful atomic landfill on my backyard, just over my organic farm, where I used to produce everything I needed in a sustainable way, I have to feel happy, take the fucking money and go away to buy some cokes and cellphones. Obviously, because any investment is essentially good and there's nothing better than money...
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April 10, 2012, 12:44:17 AM
 #24

And concerning the foreign investment that should balance the current account when you open your economy, the problem with it is that most of those investments are only after big and fast profits, and they usually give a damn about the long term welfare of the target economy. If they can take a quick and big profit by destroying the economy, they will do so, and they has historically done it. All colonialism has being (and still is) nothing but examples of this point... And we, colonized countries, live with it everyday.

This is why Argentina is such a disaster. Most of the people think (like you) that investment equals invasion, and that government intervention (violence) is a legitimate way to solve problems.

The state can not solve problems; the state IS the problem (no one taught you this at school precisely because it is true).

As for the situation here, the worst part of the cycle is just beginning. I think it will take a lot of blood before things start to improve, but this is perfectly predictable: collapse -> privatization -> stability, growth -> state expansion -> collapse. Like everywhere else, but with greater intensity and frequency.

Please, don't put words in my mouth. If you read the whole thread you'll see what I think about government:

The profound and unfair distribution of wealth and power which we (as in all humanity) are trailing since almost forever is the big problem here. Imperial governments imposing terms on smaller governments. Small governments imposing terms on even smaller governments, and so on until we found ridiculously minuscule governments (of which fatherhood patriarchy may be the smaller unit) imposing terms on people, turning everybody into semiconscious slaves serving foreign interests for ever...

Time to invade the Falklands again to distract the populace!

Coming from a US citizen I know....   Pot. Kettle.  Black.  

Yes, as almost every other government out there, our history has being full of crazy and stupid people... Maybe central governments in themselves are craziness in itself...

And if you had mining companies all around your country, blowing up every mountain, enslaving people, throwing away tons of clean water, and contaminating everything with cyanide you may give a second thought about some investments. Governments are shit, but greedy companies are just a private form of government, even shittier than public governments. And sadly both (government and private companies) are on the same side of the coin. We, most people, are on the other side. All alone.

Edit:

@majamalu:

Are you Argentine?

Do you think that ANY investment would be ok?

Yes I am.

An investment is ok as long as it doesn't involve coercion. In the case of mining companies, they do not make the rules; they play by rules imposed by the State. The reason why mining companies can take profit from the destruction of a particular environment, and get away with it, is that the government offers them its monopoly on the use of force. Corporations are consequences, not causes, of state intervention.

The worst thing is that, under this system, justice is not even possible, since what we call "public space" is just the place in which property rights are not defined. Thanks to your government, mining companies don't need to negotiate with you or your insurance company (or whoever could be affected by potential damages, and even might not be interested in negotiating with the mining company): it's easier and cheaper for them to just ally with the government against you (the locals). You (the locals) are a mere nuisance, wich can be removed by the police (that is, by the State).

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April 10, 2012, 08:21:43 AM
 #25

So if this nice people is investing a ton million WHATEVERUNITOFVALUEYOULIKE$ to setup a beautiful atomic landfill on my backyard, just over my organic farm, where I used to produce everything I needed in a sustainable way, I have to feel happy, take the fucking money and go away to buy some cokes and cellphones. Obviously, because any investment is essentially good and there's nothing better than money...

Yes it is. The problem there is not investing a ton of money, but setting up an atomic landfill without legitimate permission from all parts affected.

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April 10, 2012, 12:37:21 PM
 #26

And concerning the foreign investment that should balance the current account when you open your economy, the problem with it is that most of those investments are only after big and fast profits, and they usually give a damn about the long term welfare of the target economy. If they can take a quick and big profit by destroying the economy, they will do so, and they has historically done it. All colonialism has being (and still is) nothing but examples of this point... And we, colonized countries, live with it everyday.

This is why Argentina is such a disaster. Most of the people think (like you) that investment equals invasion, and that government intervention (violence) is a legitimate way to solve problems.

The state can not solve problems; the state IS the problem (no one taught you this at school precisely because it is true).

As for the situation here, the worst part of the cycle is just beginning. I think it will take a lot of blood before things start to improve, but this is perfectly predictable: collapse -> privatization -> stability, growth -> state expansion -> collapse. Like everywhere else, but with greater intensity and frequency.

Please, don't put words in my mouth. If you read the whole thread you'll see what I think about government:

The profound and unfair distribution of wealth and power which we (as in all humanity) are trailing since almost forever is the big problem here. Imperial governments imposing terms on smaller governments. Small governments imposing terms on even smaller governments, and so on until we found ridiculously minuscule governments (of which fatherhood patriarchy may be the smaller unit) imposing terms on people, turning everybody into semiconscious slaves serving foreign interests for ever...

Time to invade the Falklands again to distract the populace!

Coming from a US citizen I know....   Pot. Kettle.  Black. 

Yes, as almost every other government out there, our history has being full of crazy and stupid people... Maybe central governments in themselves are craziness in itself...

And if you had mining companies all around your country, blowing up every mountain, enslaving people, throwing away tons of clean water, and contaminating everything with cyanide you may give a second thought about some investments. Governments are shit, but greedy companies are just a private form of government, even shittier than public governments. And sadly both (government and private companies) are on the same side of the coin. We, most people, are on the other side. All alone.

Edit:

@majamalu:

Are you Argentine?

Do you think that ANY investment would be ok?

Yes I am.

An investment is ok as long as it doesn't involve coercion. In the case of mining companies, they do not make the rules; they play by rules imposed by the State. The reason why mining companies can take profit from the destruction of a particular environment, and get away with it, is that the government offers them its monopoly on the use of force. Corporations are consequences, not causes, of state intervention.

The worst thing is that, under this system, justice is not even possible, since what we call "public space" is just the place in which property rights are not defined. Thanks to your government, mining companies don't need to negotiate with you or your insurance company (or whoever could be affected by potential damages, and even might not be interested in negotiating with the mining company): it's easier and cheaper for them to just ally with the government against you (the locals). You (the locals) are a mere nuisance, wich can be removed by the police (that is, by the State).

Even if it doesn't involve coercion, an investment could be just bad. See below. I agree plainly with everything else you said.

So if this nice people is investing a ton million WHATEVERUNITOFVALUEYOULIKE$ to setup a beautiful atomic landfill on my backyard, just over my organic farm, where I used to produce everything I needed in a sustainable way, I have to feel happy, take the fucking money and go away to buy some cokes and cellphones. Obviously, because any investment is essentially good and there's nothing better than money...

Yes it is. The problem there is not investing a ton of money, but setting up an atomic landfill without legitimate permission from all parts affected.

I'm pretty sure that every part affected happily agreed that it was a brilliant idea setting up a nuclear plant on Fukushima. See how it went.

Money is a powerful tool. Maybe the most powerful tool ever created by men. That's why managing it involves such a big responsibility. Sadly, most money today is managed by greedy and selfish people who are investing most of it in producing a world as greedy and selfish as themselves. Bitcoin is a huge opportunity for changing this a little. I hope we, bitcoiners, would be up to it.
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April 10, 2012, 03:22:26 PM
 #27

I'm pretty sure that every part affected happily agreed that it was a brilliant idea setting up a nuclear plant on Fukushima. See how it went.

That has nothing to do with investing money.

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April 10, 2012, 03:31:37 PM
 #28

I'm pretty sure that every part affected happily agreed that it was a brilliant idea setting up a nuclear plant on Fukushima. See how it went.

That has nothing to do with investing money.

Somebody invested money to build the nuclear plants. Would you call it a clever investment?
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April 10, 2012, 03:35:35 PM
 #29

I'm pretty sure that every part affected happily agreed that it was a brilliant idea setting up a nuclear plant on Fukushima. See how it went.

Again: what parts? Without property rights, it is not possible to represent every part affected. In the case of Fukushima - as with many other nuclear plants around the world - the State signed on behalf of all potential victims (otherwise, the risk would not have justified the investment for the company.) Under a statist system, those who benefit most are not held liable.

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April 10, 2012, 07:04:46 PM
 #30

I'm pretty sure that every part affected happily agreed that it was a brilliant idea setting up a nuclear plant on Fukushima. See how it went.

That has nothing to do with investing money.

Somebody invested money to build the nuclear plants. Would you call it a clever investment?

Didn't turn out well for any of the parts involved long term. All investment involves risk.

Again, what's bad about investing in itself? in this case, it's a state-controlled operation. Had it been modernised it would have been a perfectly good investment. Notice the distinction between a particular investment being good or bad, or the very concept of investment being good or bad. These adjectives simply don't apply to investment as a concept.

A good way to prevent all risk in investment is to ban it all. This also ensures ruination.

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April 12, 2012, 08:16:50 PM
 #31

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9201039/Argentina-poised-to-seize-Repsol-assets-endangering-shale-dream.html

Quote
Argentina poised to seize Repsol assets, endangering shale dream

Quote
Argentina was poised on Thursday night to launch the forced takeover of assets from the Spanish energy group Repsol, risking a diplomatic showdown with Spain and scaring investors needed to unlock the country's vast shale gas reserves.

Quote
Spain's industry minister Manuel Soria said Madrid would not stand idly by if Spanish companies are attacked. "If there are hostile moves towards those interests anywhere in the world, the government will interpret them as hostile moves against Spain. These acts of hostility will have consequences."
The clash came as Argentina's leader Cristina Fernandez prepared a TV address to announce the fate of YPF, the Argentine oil group controlled by Repsol. Argentina's press said President Fernandez plans to seize YPF on "public interest" grounds, invoking the country's hydro-carbon law to gain majority control. She has been tightening the noose on Repsol over recent months by withdrawing operating licences, accusing Repsol of failure to invest adequately in its Argentine operations. The company denies the claim.
Neil Shearing from Capital Economics said the move is naked "resource nationalism", akin to seizures by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
"The recent history of these episodes in Latin America is that there are few happy endings. It points to wider problems in the Argentine economy: there is a balance of payments deficit but almost nobody will lend the goverment any money, so they are grabbing foreign currency wherever they can," he said.
Repsol owns 53pc of YPF shares. The government is expected to force Repsol to sell at deflated market prices, reflecting a fall of 37pc since January – presenting the takeover as a public-private venture.
The move is risky for a nation that is not yet rehabilitated after the world's biggest default in 2002. Argentina needs investment of $25bn ($15.7bn) a year and foreign know-how to develop its deep-sea oil fields and tap its Vaca Muerta shale gas reserves, the world's second biggest after China. The country has already raised eyebrows by revoking licences for YPF and Petrobras, and capping payments to oil companies at $42 a barrel.

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April 12, 2012, 10:25:24 PM
 #32

You can add this too:

http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/03/30/this-is-what-happens-when-the-president-controls-the-central-bank-good-for-a-big-laugh-before-argentina-becomes-the-next-zimbabwe/

And a lot of other things alike from everywhere... As in the 89, the big fishes are fighting for the power, and mostly poor and common people is going to leave their blood in the streets...
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April 13, 2012, 09:58:10 AM
 #33

Interesting thread - if it could get back on topic.
I'm curious. How exactly could bitcoin help here? How would one even get enough bitcoins into circulation (in Argentina) to make any difference?

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April 13, 2012, 03:18:28 PM
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Of course all investments are not OK...

Money should not guide you, but REAL resources and your philosophical goals.

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April 13, 2012, 04:04:01 PM
 #35

Interesting thread - if it could get back on topic.
I'm curious. How exactly could bitcoin help here? How would one even get enough bitcoins into circulation (in Argentina) to make any difference?

Bitcoin can help here, as everywhere, by providing a more stable measure of value, and breaking dependencies on centralized institutions (Central Banks, IMF, WB). It doesn't really matters how many bitcoins would be in circulation at the beginning, the extremely divisible nature of bitcoin would make it adaptable. Anyway, they're some miners here, and they're people buying bitcoins, so the supply has already begun.

Of course all investments are not OK...

Money should not guide you, but REAL resources and your philosophical goals.

I agree absolutely.
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April 14, 2012, 03:36:50 PM
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Quote
It doesn't really matters how many bitcoins would be in circulation at the beginning, the extremely divisible nature of bitcoin would make it adaptable.

I don't understand this argument about divisibilty. If fractions of a bitcoin are nearly worthless, then they're not going to be a good substitute for money, are they?
If I want to replace the local currency - and I somehow was able to convince my employer to pay me in bitcoin, and my landlord and grocer to accept bitcoins - I'd still need to pay the grocer enough bitcoins to equal the value of the bread he's selling.  I can't simply divide it and pay him 0.00001 btc just because I don't have more. I also wouldn't work for 0.001 bitcoins a month.

Besides, the bitcoin client doesn't (currently) allow such small payments - it refuses with an error message.

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April 14, 2012, 03:59:25 PM
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Quote
It doesn't really matters how many bitcoins would be in circulation at the beginning, the extremely divisible nature of bitcoin would make it adaptable.

I don't understand this argument about divisibilty. If fractions of a bitcoin are nearly worthless, then they're not going to be a good substitute for money, are they?
If I want to replace the local currency - and I somehow was able to convince my employer to pay me in bitcoin, and my landlord and grocer to accept bitcoins - I'd still need to pay the grocer enough bitcoins to equal the value of the bread he's selling.  I can't simply divide it and pay him 0.00001 btc just because I don't have more. I also wouldn't work for 0.001 bitcoins a month.

Besides, the bitcoin client doesn't (currently) allow such small payments - it refuses with an error message.


0.000 000 01 btc = 1 satoshi
In the future, if 1 btc = 1 million dollars, then 1 satoshi will be 1 cent usd.
Clients can be easily modified to manage satoshis.



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April 15, 2012, 03:14:59 PM
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Quote
In the future, if 1 btc = 1 million dollars, then 1 satoshi will be 1 cent usd.

So you're saying, it's not going to be much help to Argentina now, but it could be in the future, if the price goes up a lot?
Seems to me, at a million dollars pr btc, it'll be a toy for the very rich, not something that can help the people being screwed over in Argentina right now.

Gold is also very divisible, down to the atom in fact. And also very valuable, and scarce, just as bitcoin is/will be. You don't see poor people trading with gold though.

I do appreciate bitcoins, but I just don't see how it can help out in this kind of situation. Sure would like to be enlightened though.

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April 15, 2012, 05:09:21 PM
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Quote
In the future, if 1 btc = 1 million dollars, then 1 satoshi will be 1 cent usd.

So you're saying, it's not going to be much help to Argentina now, but it could be in the future, if the price goes up a lot?
Seems to me, at a million dollars pr btc, it'll be a toy for the very rich, not something that can help the people being screwed over in Argentina right now.

Gold is also very divisible, down to the atom in fact. And also very valuable, and scarce, just as bitcoin is/will be. You don't see poor people trading with gold though.

I do appreciate bitcoins, but I just don't see how it can help out in this kind of situation. Sure would like to be enlightened though.

Only answered your question about divisibility, and how you can use 0.00000001 btc in the future.
Don´t know if it applies to Argentina or any other country.

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April 16, 2012, 05:35:12 PM
 #40

Argentina should default. Declare bankrupcy.
Once Argentina gets pressured to start paying back, they should declare bankruptcy.
Then declare that if they pay back now, then they will bring pain and suffering to their people and incur in human rights violations.

Since their econ is already shrinking the domino effect of defaulting wont be felt.
Take the opportunity to develop the economy, by not increasing the tax burden on local biz and freeing the import export, also develop the service sector so that their main resource is untangible, so no mineral goods are fleeing...

I mean Iceland sorta did something like that and it seems to have worked for them. Greece in the 1930's did something similar and then they decided to listen to the West again...

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April 16, 2012, 07:12:02 PM
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Argentina should default. Declare bankrupcy.
Once Argentina gets pressured to start paying back, they should declare bankruptcy.
Then declare that if they pay back now, then they will bring pain and suffering to their people and incur in human rights violations.

Since their econ is already shrinking the domino effect of defaulting wont be felt.
Take the opportunity to develop the economy, by not increasing the tax burden on local biz and freeing the import export, also develop the service sector so that their main resource is untangible, so no mineral goods are fleeing...

I mean Iceland sorta did something like that and it seems to have worked for them. Greece in the 1930's did something similar and then they decided to listen to the West again...

You do realise that Argentina needs to trade? their production is quite low. They cannot turn into a production economy overnight, these transitions need time and they won't have it without credit.

Today they ordered the expropriation of Repsol-YPF http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

Their trade deficit is huge and they're taking increasingly desperate measures. Inflation is likely to continue out of control (~25% likely).

Good analysis on their latest move: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/column-oil-idUKL2E8FG9Y420120416

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April 16, 2012, 10:52:59 PM
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Quote
In the future, if 1 btc = 1 million dollars, then 1 satoshi will be 1 cent usd.

So you're saying, it's not going to be much help to Argentina now, but it could be in the future, if the price goes up a lot?
Seems to me, at a million dollars pr btc, it'll be a toy for the very rich, not something that can help the people being screwed over in Argentina right now.

1. Argentina can buy BTC for their entire currency in circulation without running out of BTC.
2. This is because such an action would raise the price of BTC, lets just say to 4.000US$/BTC.
3. Argentina may now "only" hold 3 million BTC, however those 3 million BTC will have increased in value to reflect entirely
the old currency.
4. Argentina would likely earn money doing this as the BTC rate would rise AFTER they bought it or at least lagging behind them doing so.
5. Ordinary Argentinians would indeed be able to use BTC just fine, but would trade in mili-BTC (1/1000 => 4US$/BTC) or maybe micro.
6. This is not a problem as BTC is indeed divisible down to 10^-8 or 0.000 0001 BTC.


As for the loans I would default, but try to make sure the initial loan was paid back - even with lost interest that should maintain decent trust in the Argentine people/government.
(I think the same for Greece, Italy, Spain and so on)

Paying back the loans only allocates real resources to bankers who CLEARLY gave loans for the wrong reasons to the wrong people (shady politicians).
That is not an allocation you want to make in these dire times.


Saving the economy? Well you need energy so building some wind turbines might be a good idea. That creates jobs and later the power drives factories and farming equipment.

Additionally you save your selves from huge costs on fossil fuels later - I pity the countries dead set on coal/oil/gas.


My country will have trouble too but 25% of our electricity will continue forever at little cost so that is a nice cushion to have.

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April 17, 2012, 02:36:08 AM
 #43

Gold is also very divisible, down to the atom in fact. And also very valuable, and scarce, just as bitcoin is/will be. You don't see poor people trading with gold though.

Yeah, but for some reason I couldn't find those five gold atoms I had in my pocket. And that's a pity, because I wanted to send them over the Internet to a guy in korea.

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April 17, 2012, 10:56:25 AM
 #44

As for the loans I would default, but try to make sure the initial loan was paid back - even with lost interest that should maintain decent trust in the Argentine people/government.
(I think the same for Greece, Italy, Spain and so on)

Greece maybe. Italy or Spain, no chance. Whatever turmoil they get into, they will remain in the Euro which won't be worthless overnight in any case. Simply because given their size, the EU cannot possibly afford to forfeit any significant amount of debt without crashing the whole EU economy. With Greece most is lost already (something like 80% has been forfeited already...) so nothing is out of the table if they insist in being completely reckless. The only reason they haven't been sent out is the fact that they don't want to set this precedent. Basically neither Spain nor Italy will be allowed to leave the Euro even if they wanted to. The economy of Greece is the size of a small province from Italy or Spain, it's a completely different scale we're talking about here.

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April 17, 2012, 04:35:55 PM
 #45

I'm pretty sure that modern oil exploration is a capital-intensive operation... it's not enough to own the resource, you need to be able to get it out.  Argentina doesn't have the necessary capital to get at its oil efficiently so it will need some foreign investment.

... let's think.  What's the best way to encourage foreign investment?

WRONG.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

The Argentinian government has gone all "Atlas Shrugged" and pinched 51% of a company.  I wonder how that's going to work out for them.




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April 18, 2012, 12:40:42 AM
 #46

I'm pretty sure that modern oil exploration is a capital-intensive operation... it's not enough to own the resource, you need to be able to get it out.  Argentina doesn't have the necessary capital to get at its oil efficiently so it will need some foreign investment.

... let's think.  What's the best way to encourage foreign investment?

WRONG.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

The Argentinian government has gone all "Atlas Shrugged" and pinched 51% of a company.

+1

I wonder how that's going to work out for them.

I left out this part of the comment because the answer is obvious.

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April 19, 2012, 10:10:00 AM
 #47

Bill Bonner reporting from Argentina today:
This Is Argentina
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/this-is-argentina/2012/04/19/

Quote:
That’s what’s nice about Argentina. You know where you stand. You know the politicians are crooked and the bureaucrats are incompetent, if not completely mad. You know you have to find a way around them...a way to dodge their rules...a way to protect yourself. You know the government’s figures are lies and its promises are empty. You know what to do with its currency too — try to get rid of it at the earliest opportunity.

That’s why the federales in Argentina have new dogs on the job at the international airports. They’re not trying to stop people from bringing in weapons or contraband. They’re trying to stop people from taking out dollars!

Yes, dear reader, the papers tell us that the Argentines have trained dogs to sniff out dollars — striking fear in the hearts of those who would try to convert their pesos to dollars and take them where they might be safe.

Meanwhile, back in Argentina, the Kirchner government has announced the forced nationalization of the nation’s biggest oil company — YPF. Naturally. The government said it was unhappy with the way the owners were (not) investing in new development. So, they’re taking the company into their own hands — as if the penniless pampa feds will invest more!

What better way to convince foreign investors NOT to invest their money in Argentina; take away their assets. Heck, it worked for Cuba and Venezuela.

Seems transparently nutty. But that’s what’s so good about it. You know what is going on in Argentina. You know for a dead certainty that the government is corrupt and incompetent. And you know you have to watch out!

*** Fortunately, while the Argentines close doors publicly, they leave doors open privately. That is, it is a society like Sicily, where there are laws...and there are ways around them.

We were worried about the effects of another stupid law passed recently by the Argentine government. It prevents foreigners from owning large parcels of farmland. Since your editor owns two large parcels...and since even a blind, deaf and dumb man could not mistake him for an authentic Argentine...he would seem to be the very person the law is meant to restrain. So, we put the question to our lawyer.

“Yes,” he said. “That’s what the law says. But this is Argentina.”

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April 19, 2012, 01:14:01 PM
 #48

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.
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April 21, 2012, 06:26:48 PM
 #49

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.

I think the actual decisions the government is making carry a lot more weight and blame than whatever the press has to say.

Credit and investment are drying up and very logically so. I wouldn't invest in Argentina either with that kind of government, would you if you weren't in Argentina?

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April 22, 2012, 06:20:02 PM
 #50

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.

I think the actual decisions the government is making carry a lot more weight and blame than whatever the press has to say.

Credit and investment are drying up and very logically so. I wouldn't invest in Argentina either with that kind of government, would you if you weren't in Argentina?

I'm actually everyday less concerned about what governments are doing. If we keep doing our work on implementing freedom finely, on the long term governments destiny could be the one that Borges prefigured here:

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.
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April 23, 2012, 01:26:19 AM
 #51

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.

Good find!

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April 27, 2012, 04:23:49 PM
 #52

A worthwhile article, fact and data-filled:
Argentina - What Is Driving Kirchner?
April 27, 2012
http://seekingalpha.com/article/535611-argentina-what-is-driving-kirchner

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May 11, 2012, 03:16:39 PM
 #53

More tightening of imports and currency exchange. I wonder what will the situation be when energy consumption increases during the Southern Hemisphere winter.


(Spanish)
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472173-cristina-ratifico-controles-de-divisas-y-reconocio-dificultades-fiscales
Exchange rate AR$ vs US$: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472409-baja-el-dolar-en-medio-del-endurecimiento-de-los-controles-a-la-compra-de-divisas

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May 12, 2012, 01:20:24 AM
 #54

When the inflation is very high, and possibly will get even higher, investing in BTC will be a really good investment for Argentinians. Bitcoin will keep its value even if the local currency is destroyed/inflated. The Argentinians who have invested in Bitcoin will have something that has value, while the rest has worthless pesos.

Gold could of course do the same job, but Bitcoin is easier to keep hidden from government (you never know what governments do in times of crisis) you could use it to buy things online and use as a currency in the local community (instead of pesos). Another thing is that if you need to escape (this is if things get really bad, but you can never be too paranoid Wink), you could have BTC in an online wallet that could be used in the country you move to, without taking the risk of carrying lots of gold with you (and the pesos will in that situation be useless in other countries).
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May 12, 2012, 10:51:57 AM
 #55

Some people close to the government must be making a killing. The official exchange is 1 US$ = 4.4 AR$, and over 5 AR$ in the black market ("blue" dollar, they call it). They're also simply refusing dollars to takers.

(Spanish)
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472508-ya-es-muy-dificil-conseguir-dolares-en-el-mercado-formal
EDIT: http://www.ieco.clarin.com/economia/Dicen-bloqueo-compra-dolares-retorno_0_698930219.html

Corralito 2 looming on the horizon.

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May 14, 2012, 07:46:59 AM
 #56

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

By the way, rationing is here: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472986-se-hace-permanente-el-faltante-de-productos-que-controla-moreno


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May 17, 2012, 10:48:29 AM
 #57

The gap in the exchange between "official" US$ dollars and "blue dollars" (black market) sky-rockets as supply is tight and the government is trying to stop the informal market by all means.



http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1473881-ante-la-fuerte-presion-el-dolar-paralelo-se-tomo-un-respiro

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May 17, 2012, 03:48:58 PM
 #58

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

By the way, rationing is here: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472986-se-hace-permanente-el-faltante-de-productos-que-controla-moreno



wow, that looks like urine  Grin
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May 17, 2012, 03:56:16 PM
 #59

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

I don't know outside of control. You can do it on traditional ways (WU and MG) which AFAIK are working fine to receive funds (not to send). But I think they're going to convert the funds to ARS on paying...
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May 17, 2012, 04:01:48 PM
 #60

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.

Good find!


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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KyqsC2Zb5I
 

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May 17, 2012, 09:11:53 PM
 #61

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

I don't know outside of control. You can do it on traditional ways (WU and MG) which AFAIK are working fine to receive funds (not to send). But I think they're going to convert the funds to ARS on paying...

If they convert them then it's not very useful... what about possession of gold and silver, how does that work there?

Looks pretty obvious that a devaluation is going to happen one way or the other. If they're not careful it may end up in hyperinflation. They just don't want a clearly visible GDP drop that would destroy the illusion of progress... same as they are falsifying inflation data.

I wonder what are the real reserves they are holding right now. They seem really desperate to keep ahold of every dollar, well as I said when I opened this thread, the alarm signs are increasingly more obvious.

In any case Cristina F.K. and her authoritarian model cannot possibly last. They've built such a circle of lies it's only a matter of time the whole thing collapses. I hope it's soon so Argentinian society and productive structure doesn't degenerate much more.

What's coming next? Macri? cannot see that happening. So what else is there? maybe there is a divide big enough within the peronistas so that some of them can be considered an alternative by the population.

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May 18, 2012, 01:45:30 AM
 #62

So what else is there? maybe there is a divide big enough within the peronistas so that some of them can be considered an alternative by the population.

That's exactly what will happen, IMHO. Although it doesn't matter the political party: everyone will do exactly the same, and the pendulum will continue. First recession, unemployment, blood in the streets... then they will change discourse. ¿And what next? privatization, of course (I mean re-privatization), crony capitalism, excessive borrowing, default...

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May 18, 2012, 07:57:31 AM
 #63

So what else is there? maybe there is a divide big enough within the peronistas so that some of them can be considered an alternative by the population.

That's exactly what will happen, IMHO. Although it doesn't matter the political party: everyone will do exactly the same, and the pendulum will continue. First recession, unemployment, blood in the streets... then they will change discourse. ¿And what next? privatization, of course (I mean re-privatization), crony capitalism, excessive borrowing, default...

Who's going to invest big in Argentina this time? who will they borrow from? they seem to be running out of credit in both senses of the word. Oil reserves are drying up too - shale oil will require a big investor, who's it going to be? They just blatantly stole the dividend cash reserve out of YPF. Who in his right mind would invest a dollar there?

Wow... another lost generation. How do you get out of this cycle?

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May 19, 2012, 06:11:21 AM
 #64

Who's going to invest big in Argentina this time?

Those who are granted a monopoly.

who will they borrow from?

Those who get the money at gunpoint, basically.

Wow... another lost generation. How do you get out of this cycle?

Good question. I think not much can be done to remove the religion of statism (at least in the short run).

What you can do is understand the mechanism, prepare yourself for the inevitable and then try to stay calm while blood runs through the streets, like those people that made big fortunes during the collapse of 2001/2002.

Stupidity on a massive scale is like a force of nature: You learn to take advantage of it or it will destroy you.

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May 20, 2012, 08:07:15 AM
 #65

From another thread:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys0B0TFFVbw&feature=g-all-u


Seems like de ja vu all over again. The calendar says 2012 but it feels very much like 2002. Anyone who knows any Argentines should talk bitcoin Ad nauseam.

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May 20, 2012, 05:01:09 PM
 #66

Do most people there have savings, and would lose money if the currency drops, or have loans, and would benefit?

Sig for sale
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May 20, 2012, 07:33:39 PM
 #67

Do most people there have savings, and would lose money if the currency drops, or have loans, and would benefit?

They do, Argentina still keeps a middle class. They count on the currency dropping, and what they'd usually do is investing in Real Estate or buying foreign currency (US$ mainly). But Cristina Fernandez Kirchner's government is trying to lock them up to AR$ and closing in tighter controls and simply refusing exchange. This has been going on for a while... I'd say their reserves must be lower than advertised. I opened this thread earlier this year as measures starting to look markedly more worrying. Something is going on.

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May 22, 2012, 01:57:58 PM
 #68

I think it's possible that Argentina could be ripe for a Bitcoin related tipping point.  There is a decent tech community in Argentina.  Around the time of their last currency collapse (early 2000's) I worked on an open source project where there was a sizable number of Argentinian's involved.  They were offering to do software development work for very cheap prices due to the currency devaluation.  Given that this currency event is such a recent memory and given there is a decent tech community, Bitcoin might have a chance there.  However, I think a few things need to be in place ahead of the event.  

First and foremost, there need to be local bitcoin exchanges.  With capital controls in place, foreign exchanges won't do them much good.  It could be readily apparent to everyone that Bitcoin has value on mtgox, but if you can't sell your Bitcoins on mtgox and transfer it back into Argentina, mtgox is of no use to them.  And capital controls will only get more restricted as the event nears.

Second, there needs to be a decent and visible amount of people willing to accept Bitcoin in exchange for goods and services domestically.  The basics (food, shelter, clothing) are essential items that need to be readily obtained with Bitcoin.  This will give people the confidence that if they hold some Bitcoins, they'll be able to spend them to obtain these necessities.  It's of little use to people in Argentina to be able to purchase mining rigs with Bitcoin when their primary concern during a currency crisis it putting food on the table.

Third, there need to be a critical mass of people in Argentina that hold Bitcoin in advance of the currency devaluation.  If very few people in Argentina have Bitcoins, then to obtain Bitcoin, it may be necessary to market and sell goods or services to international buyers that have Bitcoin.  That might be challenging.  Also, if only a very tiny portion of people have Bitcoin, those few holders of Bitcoin would command a very disproportionately large percentage of purchasing power present in the country.  This might cause others to be reluctant to use it for a currency as opposed to something like silver coins or the remaining physical USD in circulation.  The people that have Bitcoins now would actually do better with their investment if they tried to spread some of it around to other people.

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash? https://bitpay.com
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May 22, 2012, 07:00:38 PM
 #69

I was in Argentina last week hunting. Had no problems exchanging my money back to USD prior to re-entering the country. Either way if they do transition to BTC that would be incredibly exciting! Smiley
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May 23, 2012, 04:28:34 AM
 #70

Also, if only a very tiny portion of people have Bitcoin, those few holders of Bitcoin would command a very disproportionately large percentage of purchasing power present in the country.  This might cause others to be reluctant to use it for a currency as opposed to something like silver coins or the remaining physical USD in circulation.

People use the argentine peso as currency; what is missing is a store of value. The problem with Bitcoin is that an exchange in Argentina would have to operate clandestinely (nobody will want to stick the head). But hey, buying dollars, gold and silver is virtually prohibited, and people are pretty comfortable with the black market. So it doesn´t seem unreasonable to think that many people may start to look at Bitcoin as a good alternative.

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May 23, 2012, 08:48:36 AM
 #71

An exchange is 100% necessary.  Bootstrapping from an existing currency is only one way of getting bitcoins into an economy.  Admittedly it's the easiest -- but perhaps "easiest" becomes a less accurate term in less free countries like Argentina.

If Argentinians started earning bitcoins directly, then no exchange would be necessary.  The exchange would not be for dollars, but would be for "goods and services".  The hardest part is finding something that some foreign owner of bitcoins wants to buy.  However, it could also be that a foreign owner of dollars, who is already buying from Argentina can be persuaded to settle bills in bitcoin.

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May 23, 2012, 09:07:14 AM
 #72

An exchange is 100% necessary.  Bootstrapping from an existing currency is only one way of getting bitcoins into an economy.  Admittedly it's the easiest -- but perhaps "easiest" becomes a less accurate term in less free countries like Argentina.

If Argentinians started earning bitcoins directly, then no exchange would be necessary.  The exchange would not be for dollars, but would be for "goods and services".  The hardest part is finding something that some foreign owner of bitcoins wants to buy.  However, it could also be that a foreign owner of dollars, who is already buying from Argentina can be persuaded to settle bills in bitcoin.

Without that bootstrapping there's little you can do there. The current government restricts not just the purchase of foreign currencies and precious metals, but also imports. For mining, you need equipment that effectively is a lot more expensive than elsewhere, you cannot easily import mining equipment. If they decided to start buying and selling products and services they'd be very strictly limited to services since they cannot reliably buy outside.

Maybe web designers, programmers, etc can offer their services directly in BTC and then use it for complementary services, as a complement to their main salary typically in AR$/US$. It's limited, but it's something.

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May 23, 2012, 10:35:55 AM
 #73

An exchange is 100% necessary.  Bootstrapping from an existing currency is only one way of getting bitcoins into an economy.  Admittedly it's the easiest -- but perhaps "easiest" becomes a less accurate term in less free countries like Argentina.

If Argentinians started earning bitcoins directly, then no exchange would be necessary.  The exchange would not be for dollars, but would be for "goods and services".  The hardest part is finding something that some foreign owner of bitcoins wants to buy.  However, it could also be that a foreign owner of dollars, who is already buying from Argentina can be persuaded to settle bills in bitcoin.

Without that bootstrapping there's little you can do there. The current government restricts not just the purchase of foreign currencies and precious metals, but also imports.

I'm talking about exports though.  People in Argentina selling goods and services to foreigners is exporting.  I'd very surprised if cash-strapped Argentina banned exports.

For mining, you need equipment that effectively is a lot more expensive than elsewhere, you cannot easily import mining equipment. If they decided to start buying and selling products and services they'd be very strictly limited to services since they cannot reliably buy outside.

Argentina must export more than fossil fuels?  What about the agricultural sector?  But services too would be possible.

Maybe web designers, programmers, etc can offer their services directly in BTC and then use it for complementary services, as a complement to their main salary typically in AR$/US$. It's limited, but it's something.

Exchange rates sort everything out.  If only people could be persuaded to use bitcoins within Argentina, then the demand within Argentina would rise, and the few that were entering the country via service providers/farmers would be enough to run an economy (remember there are eight decimal places of divisibility).  The more valuable BTC became within Argentina, the more attractive the export business would become.

The ARS/BTC rate would sky rocket, just as the ARS/USD rate is going/has done anyway.  At some point, ARS would only be useful for paying taxes, but you'd be able to buy so many for a few BTC that it wouldn't matter in the slightest.   Importantly: BTC would allow a capital-control free existence.  The stupidity of the government wouldn't be passed on to the people, rather the stupidity of the government would be visited on the government.

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May 23, 2012, 10:58:04 AM
 #74

An exchange is 100% necessary.  Bootstrapping from an existing currency is only one way of getting bitcoins into an economy.  Admittedly it's the easiest -- but perhaps "easiest" becomes a less accurate term in less free countries like Argentina.

If Argentinians started earning bitcoins directly, then no exchange would be necessary.  The exchange would not be for dollars, but would be for "goods and services".  The hardest part is finding something that some foreign owner of bitcoins wants to buy.  However, it could also be that a foreign owner of dollars, who is already buying from Argentina can be persuaded to settle bills in bitcoin.

Without that bootstrapping there's little you can do there. The current government restricts not just the purchase of foreign currencies and precious metals, but also imports.

I'm talking about exports though.  People in Argentina selling goods and services to foreigners is exporting.  I'd very surprised if cash-strapped Argentina banned exports.

For mining, you need equipment that effectively is a lot more expensive than elsewhere, you cannot easily import mining equipment. If they decided to start buying and selling products and services they'd be very strictly limited to services since they cannot reliably buy outside.

Argentina must export more than fossil fuels?  What about the agricultural sector?  But services too would be possible.

Maybe web designers, programmers, etc can offer their services directly in BTC and then use it for complementary services, as a complement to their main salary typically in AR$/US$. It's limited, but it's something.

Exchange rates sort everything out.  If only people could be persuaded to use bitcoins within Argentina, then the demand within Argentina would rise, and the few that were entering the country via service providers/farmers would be enough to run an economy (remember there are eight decimal places of divisibility).  The more valuable BTC became within Argentina, the more attractive the export business would become.

The ARS/BTC rate would sky rocket, just as the ARS/USD rate is going/has done anyway.  At some point, ARS would only be useful for paying taxes, but you'd be able to buy so many for a few BTC that it wouldn't matter in the slightest.   Importantly: BTC would allow a capital-control free existence.  The stupidity of the government wouldn't be passed on to the people, rather the stupidity of the government would be visited on the government.


Exports are under tight control too. You'd need to show the money for them. They'd want tax, and the foreign currency for them to keep - giving you AR$.

Argentina is not remotely a free market economy at the moment.

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May 23, 2012, 11:16:32 AM
 #75

Exports are under tight control too. You'd need to show the money for them. They'd want tax, and the foreign currency for them to keep - giving you AR$.

Argentina is not remotely a free market economy at the moment.

They're more insane than I thought.

Okay.  Bitcoin isn't going to practically help them.

What about setting up an alternate chain?  Argencoin.  That can be issued and used within Argentina fairly easily -- then, since Bitcoin-technology-Argencoins can't be prevented from being transferred, set up a BTC/AGC exchange anywhere you like outside of Argentina's control?

AGC/ARS exchange should be possible because it's internal.
AGC/BTC exchange is possible because it can't be stopped.


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May 23, 2012, 03:53:16 PM
 #76

Okay.  Bitcoin isn't going to practically help them.

Bitcoin IS helping anyway. Freedom will be implemented, like it or not...

What about setting up an alternate chain?  Argencoin.  That can be issued and used within Argentina fairly easily -- then, since Bitcoin-technology-Argencoins can't be prevented from being transferred, set up a BTC/AGC exchange anywhere you like outside of Argentina's control?

AGC/ARS exchange should be possible because it's internal.
AGC/BTC exchange is possible because it can't be stopped.



Hey, do you read my mind?

By the way... Little (almost none) work has been done yet, but if somebody's interested, help is more than welcome (and needed)...
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May 23, 2012, 04:00:53 PM
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Okay.  Bitcoin isn't going to practically help them.

Bitcoin IS helping anyway. Freedom will be implemented, like it or not...

True enough.

What about setting up an alternate chain?  Argencoin.  That can be issued and used within...

Hey, do you read my mind?

HA!  Awesome.

I do think, that when an idea's time has come, multiple people get it at the same moment.  It's obviously destined to be done.


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May 23, 2012, 04:32:52 PM
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Well, that's interesting but wouldn't that coin be very tied to their economy? I think they'd rather have BTC at a premium rather than going that way and having to deal with the massive fluctuations. If you make a crypto-currency to trade it mainly in AR$, it's going to be just as "bad currency" as the AR$.

They could, for instance, sell stuff online partly in US$/€/£ and partly in BTC, declare the non-BTC part and be reasonably safe. But then again, they will have a hard time selling or using these BTC over US$. In Argentina, dealing with currencies outside of their central bank is outlawed! and a lot of people think that's normal and even supported. I'm amazed Argentina still manages to function reasonably well considering all the measures put in place.

Paradoxically, I think one of the reasons for them not to have more BTC activity is that the US$ they have are more valuable for them than they are outside of Argentina! they just don't want to get rid of them, as finding more becomes increasingly hard.

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May 23, 2012, 06:06:59 PM
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Well, that's interesting but wouldn't that coin be very tied to their economy? I think they'd rather have BTC at a premium rather than going that way and having to deal with the massive fluctuations. If you make a crypto-currency to trade it mainly in AR$, it's going to be just as "bad currency" as the AR$.

As "bad" as ARS except without the capital controls, export restrictions and ability to be debased by the government.  There's nothing wrong with the Argentinian economy that the removal of their economically inept government wouldn't fix.  Which is exactly what such a currency would do.

They could, for instance, sell stuff online partly in US$/€/£ and partly in BTC, declare the non-BTC part and be reasonably safe. But then again, they will have a hard time selling or using these BTC over US$. In Argentina, dealing with currencies outside of their central bank is outlawed! and a lot of people think that's normal and even supported. I'm amazed Argentina still manages to function reasonably well considering all the measures put in place.

Well yes, isn't this where the Argencoin idea that you're rejecting comes in?

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May 23, 2012, 06:19:02 PM
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Well, that's interesting but wouldn't that coin be very tied to their economy? I think they'd rather have BTC at a premium rather than going that way and having to deal with the massive fluctuations. If you make a crypto-currency to trade it mainly in AR$, it's going to be just as "bad currency" as the AR$.

As "bad" as ARS except without the capital controls, export restrictions and ability to be debased by the government.  There's nothing wrong with the Argentinian economy that the removal of their economically inept government wouldn't fix.  Which is exactly what such a currency would do.


There is something very wrong with the Argentinian economy: monetary policy. You cannot possibly trade a cryptocurrency mainly and AR$ and isolate it from their monetary policy.


They could, for instance, sell stuff online partly in US$/€/£ and partly in BTC, declare the non-BTC part and be reasonably safe. But then again, they will have a hard time selling or using these BTC over US$. In Argentina, dealing with currencies outside of their central bank is outlawed! and a lot of people think that's normal and even supported. I'm amazed Argentina still manages to function reasonably well considering all the measures put in place.

Well yes, isn't this where the Argencoin idea that you're rejecting comes in?

Except with Bitcoin instead? or at least something global.

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May 23, 2012, 06:38:55 PM
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Well, that's interesting but wouldn't that coin be very tied to their economy? I think they'd rather have BTC at a premium rather than going that way and having to deal with the massive fluctuations. If you make a crypto-currency to trade it mainly in AR$, it's going to be just as "bad currency" as the AR$.

As "bad" as ARS except without the capital controls, export restrictions and ability to be debased by the government.  There's nothing wrong with the Argentinian economy that the removal of their economically inept government wouldn't fix.  Which is exactly what such a currency would do.


There is something very wrong with the Argentinian economy: monetary policy. You cannot possibly trade a cryptocurrency mainly and AR$ and isolate it from their monetary policy.

Haven't you just repeated what I said?  "nothing wrong that the removal of ..."

Once the stored value in the economy is not AR$ it is isolated.  The trade happens at an instant when the exchange rate is known, then it can be ignored -- once value is moved into Argencoin, the monetary policy can do whatever it likes.  The idea remember is that a cryptocurrency would allow Argentinians who wanted to get off the merry go round to do so.

The floating rate against the rest of the world would be handled by the BTC/Argencoin rate.  Since Argencoin can be exported it can be used to create the BTC/ARS exchange rate that government controls would, at present, restrict.

They could, for instance, sell stuff online partly in US$/€/£ and partly in BTC, declare the non-BTC part and be reasonably safe. But then again, they will have a hard time selling or using these BTC over US$. In Argentina, dealing with currencies outside of their central bank is outlawed! and a lot of people think that's normal and even supported. I'm amazed Argentina still manages to function reasonably well considering all the measures put in place.

Well yes, isn't this where the Argencoin idea that you're rejecting comes in?

Except with Bitcoin instead? or at least something global.

... and round we go again Smiley  The problem under discussion is how to get bitcoins into a country that has implemented export, import and capital controls.  The solution offered being Argencoins.

I don't say that it would work, merely that you were quick to reject something that might be worth trying.

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May 23, 2012, 06:42:18 PM
 #82

I disagree. I think the way to get bitcoins is goods and services.

Provided that AR$ are bad money, a cryptocurrency strongly linked to AR$ offers no significant advantage. Just an extra hoop and something else to worry about. Mining would be required that would be much better invested in BTC.

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May 23, 2012, 07:24:46 PM
 #83

I disagree. I think the way to get bitcoins is goods and services.

There's is not disagreement there, just an alternative approach. To be successful we have to implement both. Some people will find easier exchanging their goods and services for bitcoins and others will be fine with argencoins. Some others will just stay with ARS or will keep trying to get USD or gold or anything that they consider valuable...

Provided that AR$ are bad money, a cryptocurrency strongly linked to AR$ offers no significant advantage. Just an extra hoop and something else to worry about. Mining would be required that would be much better invested in BTC.

The cryptocurrency would be an easy bridge for people accustomed to ARS, but won't be linked only to ARS. It would be as global as BTC itself.

Mining will be required, but it won't compete with BTC. People who is already mining BTC would be better keeping doing so. The currency I'm planning would be merged mined, to allow easy adoption, even on a global scale. And at first it'll be using scryp as POW, to allow mining on standard hardware. The idea, to begging with, is merged mining it with litecoin, but I would really like to go even further, and I'm thinking about the possibility of making a currency able to use multiple POWs. So, you could MM it with bitcoins, litecoins and other cryptos... If possible, it would be something interesting to make...
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May 23, 2012, 10:43:56 PM
 #84

I disagree. I think the way to get bitcoins is goods and services.

There's is not disagreement there, just an alternative approach. To be successful we have to implement both. Some people will find easier exchanging their goods and services for bitcoins and others will be fine with argencoins. Some others will just stay with ARS or will keep trying to get USD or gold or anything that they consider valuable...

Provided that AR$ are bad money, a cryptocurrency strongly linked to AR$ offers no significant advantage. Just an extra hoop and something else to worry about. Mining would be required that would be much better invested in BTC.

The cryptocurrency would be an easy bridge for people accustomed to ARS, but won't be linked only to ARS. It would be as global as BTC itself.

Mining will be required, but it won't compete with BTC. People who is already mining BTC would be better keeping doing so. The currency I'm planning would be merged mined, to allow easy adoption, even on a global scale. And at first it'll be using scryp as POW, to allow mining on standard hardware. The idea, to begging with, is merged mining it with litecoin, but I would really like to go even further, and I'm thinking about the possibility of making a currency able to use multiple POWs. So, you could MM it with bitcoins, litecoins and other cryptos... If possible, it would be something interesting to make...

Extra complexity is not "free", it comes in at massive cost.

As is, Bitcoin is too complicated for most people to get their head around. Having so many elements at play (AR$, US$, mining on either, clients for either, etc) and needing to distinguish between two cryptocurrencies... I can only imagine it would make a lot of people simply desist, as it's something they won't understand, and it's wise to stay away from something you don't understand particularly when money is involved. That's not even considering the whole extra point of failure it adds, the difficulties bootstrapping the currency (51% attack much more likely on a small, new currency), the mess with clients and websites, etc...

Imagine a security hole is found in your fork, are you taking responsibility for it? Because you are not even anonymous, and Argentinian people are not particularly peaceful when they lose money.

I read the second part and as a software engineer I can only see a nightmarish scenario there. Extra complexity being thrown around as nothing happened. Every single addition you mention there is a gargantuan task on its own. As big as Bitcoin itself, that's actually struggling to finish implementing the original plans as we speak, after years being scrutinised by many people. It feels like when my cousin tells me about this idea for a game and comes with something even the biggest studios in the world wouldn't dare to try.

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May 24, 2012, 01:11:14 AM
 #85

So exchanges are needed - but how would one do that?
I have the same problem in my country - there are no bitcoins to be had, so difficult to get any business going using it. But starting an exchange means selling bitcoin for the local fiat - why would one do such a thing, if one sees the ARS dropping and BTC rising? If you're fan enough of bitcoin to set up an exchange, you're probably also more keen on keeping BTC than ARS anyway.
Especially if your only way of getting those bitcoins are to convert ARS to USD illegally, then exporting those USD illegally to an exchange where you can buy the BTC you need to sell.
I'm not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious, because I wanted to set one up locally (at a small scale) to help get bitcoin going, but I just don't see how.

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May 24, 2012, 02:25:04 AM
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Extra complexity is not "free", it comes in at massive cost.

As is, Bitcoin is too complicated for most people to get their head around. Having so many elements at play (AR$, US$, mining on either, clients for either, etc) and needing to distinguish between two cryptocurrencies... I can only imagine it would make a lot of people simply desist, as it's something they won't understand, and it's wise to stay away from something you don't understand particularly when money is involved. That's not even considering the whole extra point of failure it adds, the difficulties bootstrapping the currency (51% attack much more likely on a small, new currency), the mess with clients and websites, etc...

Imagine a security hole is found in your fork, are you taking responsibility for it? Because you are not even anonymous, and Argentinian people are not particularly peaceful when they lose money.

I read the second part and as a software engineer I can only see a nightmarish scenario there. Extra complexity being thrown around as nothing happened. Every single addition you mention there is a gargantuan task on its own. As big as Bitcoin itself, that's actually struggling to finish implementing the original plans as we speak, after years being scrutinised by many people. It feels like when my cousin tells me about this idea for a game and comes with something even the biggest studios in the world wouldn't dare to try.

You're right. Bitcoin is strange and suspicious enough to the vast majority of people.
If only one of the many Argentines with offshore accounts dared to set up an exchange...

http://elbitcoin.org - Bitcoin en español
http://mercadobitcoin.com - MercadoBitcoin
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May 24, 2012, 10:33:55 AM
 #87

Provided that AR$ are bad money, a cryptocurrency strongly linked to AR$ offers no significant advantage. Just an extra hoop and something else to worry about. Mining would be required that would be much better invested in BTC.

I'm not suggesting a "strongly linked" cryptocurrency and AR$... I'm suggesting a cryptocurrency like bitcoin except an independent chain.  That's it.  There is no "link" other than it becomes possible to run an exchange with AR$.  It's not possible to run an AR$/BTC exchange, but is possible to run an AR$/Argencoin exchange.

You're right that mining would be required, but that could be done with any PC and I'm sure they already exist.

The money you suggest would be better invested in BTC: I agree completely... but the essential problem being addressed here is that there is no practical way for that to happen with the rules the government has in place.

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May 24, 2012, 02:46:38 PM
 #88

[Self-fulfilling prophecies] Argentine President Fernandez: "Money in Itself" Is Worthless
May 24, 2012 • 7:47AM
During a bilateral meeting May 18 with Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made incisive remarks about the insanity of the current, collapsing global financial system, which is based on the idea that money is worth something.

http://larouchepac.com/node/22798

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May 24, 2012, 03:06:40 PM
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[Self-fulfilling prophecies] Argentine President Fernandez: "Money in Itself" Is Worthless
May 24, 2012 • 7:47AM
During a bilateral meeting May 18 with Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made incisive remarks about the insanity of the current, collapsing global financial system, which is based on the idea that money is worth something.

http://larouchepac.com/node/22798

Coming from a government and central bank used to print money at will without any backing, this is completely understandable.

CFK is absolutely clueless and it shows every time you just let her in front of a microphone. Dunning-Kruger effect in full force.

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May 24, 2012, 06:04:46 PM
 #90

Provided that AR$ are bad money, a cryptocurrency strongly linked to AR$ offers no significant advantage. Just an extra hoop and something else to worry about. Mining would be required that would be much better invested in BTC.

I'm not suggesting a "strongly linked" cryptocurrency and AR$... I'm suggesting a cryptocurrency like bitcoin except an independent chain.  That's it.  There is no "link" other than it becomes possible to run an exchange with AR$.  It's not possible to run an AR$/BTC exchange, but is possible to run an AR$/Argencoin exchange.

You're right that mining would be required, but that could be done with any PC and I'm sure they already exist.

The money you suggest would be better invested in BTC: I agree completely... but the essential problem being addressed here is that there is no practical way for that to happen with the rules the government has in place.

If your target market can only realistically use AR$ to exchange them, it will be strongly linked to it any way you look at it.

Nobody is going to use anything else other than Argentinian Pesos to trade a cryptocurrency exclusively used there. Foreign currencies come with a premium there, so people keep them if at all possible.

And I didn't say that money would be better invested in BTC. That's also true, but what I said is that MINING would be better invested in BTC, negating the point of mining this other alternative currency that simply is very unlikely to achieve any traction.

IMO the best starting point for them is to start offering services online, but this cannot be their main job as they will have to patiently wait for their opportunity to convert these BTC in currency.
See here for reference: http://www.bitcoinclassifieds.net/Services/

For instance, this chap http://chrisacheson.net looks like a decent dev, I wouldn't think any less of him if he happened to be from Argentina  Tongue

I'd gladly convert their BTC to a currency of their choice at market rates, with little to no commission. But I rarely visit Argentina.

So basically this is a hindrance to adoption but it would be alleviated by a higher presence of bitcoin businesses there, so they could use their BTC directly without needing conversion.

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May 27, 2012, 04:00:42 PM
 #91

So exchanges are needed - but how would one do that?
I have the same problem in my country - there are no bitcoins to be had, so difficult to get any business going using it. But starting an exchange means selling bitcoin for the local fiat - why would one do such a thing, if one sees the ARS dropping and BTC rising? If you're fan enough of bitcoin to set up an exchange, you're probably also more keen on keeping BTC than ARS anyway.
Especially if your only way of getting those bitcoins are to convert ARS to USD illegally, then exporting those USD illegally to an exchange where you can buy the BTC you need to sell.
I'm not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious, because I wanted to set one up locally (at a small scale) to help get bitcoin going, but I just don't see how.

Where are you from?
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May 27, 2012, 04:12:45 PM
 #92

Extra complexity is not "free", it comes in at massive cost.

Yes, I'm well aware of it. Thanks for the advise, anyway. It's really appreciated.  Wink

As is, Bitcoin is too complicated for most people to get their head around. Having so many elements at play (AR$, US$, mining on either, clients for either, etc) and needing to distinguish between two cryptocurrencies... I can only imagine it would make a lot of people simply desist, as it's something they won't understand, and it's wise to stay away from something you don't understand particularly when money is involved. That's not even considering the whole extra point of failure it adds, the difficulties bootstrapping the currency (51% attack much more likely on a small, new currency), the mess with clients and websites, etc...

If anything anytime comes out of this, the idea is that it will be something that make things simpler for the people who can't understand bitcoin and everything related. If we can achieve that, great. If we can't, at least we tried...

Yes, it won't be easy...

Imagine a security hole is found in your fork, are you taking responsibility for it? Because you are not even anonymous, and Argentinian people are not particularly peaceful when they lose money.

I'm taking responsibility for everything I do. That's why I don't even need to be anonymous.

I read the second part and as a software engineer I can only see a nightmarish scenario there. Extra complexity being thrown around as nothing happened. Every single addition you mention there is a gargantuan task on its own. As big as Bitcoin itself, that's actually struggling to finish implementing the original plans as we speak, after years being scrutinised by many people. It feels like when my cousin tells me about this idea for a game and comes with something even the biggest studios in the world wouldn't dare to try.

Yes, maybe you're right and it won't ever advance a little bit... I haven't even touched the project for about 6 month now, and I hasn't even called for developers because I still don't know if this is the way to go. But well, we'll see... If at any time we see that this is the only way to go, at least some work is already done...
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May 27, 2012, 04:40:49 PM
 #93

Yes, maybe you're right and it won't ever advance a little bit... I haven't even touched the project for about 6 month now, and I hasn't even called for developers because I still don't know if this is the way to go. But well, we'll see... If at any time we see that this is the only way to go, at least some work is already done...

If you're interested in the computational/technical side of Bitcoin and want to continue learning and working on it, by all means please continue. I don't mean to discourage you.

I do think that these changes you propose won't help in the slightest with the adoption in Argentina. But that's a different matter. There are things to be done and alternatives to be tried that could be done globally and be successful.

If you've done research on the topic I'm willing to take a look and even help if possible. I have a number of ideas myself and we could assemble a number of people willing to work on this we can probably come up with something.

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June 08, 2012, 06:30:43 PM
 #94

“¡Qué Quilombo!”
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/dailyreckoning/~3/19PftKxju08/

Quote:
"What seems peculiar about Argentina’s case is the government’s Herculean effort to ignore the immutable laws of economics in their pursuit of grand larceny. The country has seen five currencies in just the past century, averaging a collapse every twenty years or so. In 1970, the peso ley replaced the peso moneda nacional at a rate of 100 to 1. The peso ley was in turn replaced by the peso Argentino in 1983 at a rate of 10,000 to 1. That lasted a couple of years, and was then replaced by the Austral, again at a rate of 1,000 to 1. To nobody’s surprise, the Austral was itself replaced by the peso convertible at a rate of 10,000 to 1 in 1992. During the past four decades, when all was said and done, after the various changes of currency and slicing of zeroes, one peso convertible was equivalent to 10,000,000,000,000 (1013) pesos moneda nacional."

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August 19, 2012, 12:34:27 AM
 #95

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina

It took quite a time, but now, at least, there's an easy way to send funds with BTC Smiley

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