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Author Topic: Argentina, on the verge of a new currency collapse  (Read 10632 times)
muyuu
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April 16, 2012, 07:12:02 PM
 #41

Argentina should default. Declare bankrupcy.
Once Argentina gets pressured to start paying back, they should declare bankruptcy.
Then declare that if they pay back now, then they will bring pain and suffering to their people and incur in human rights violations.

Since their econ is already shrinking the domino effect of defaulting wont be felt.
Take the opportunity to develop the economy, by not increasing the tax burden on local biz and freeing the import export, also develop the service sector so that their main resource is untangible, so no mineral goods are fleeing...

I mean Iceland sorta did something like that and it seems to have worked for them. Greece in the 1930's did something similar and then they decided to listen to the West again...

You do realise that Argentina needs to trade? their production is quite low. They cannot turn into a production economy overnight, these transitions need time and they won't have it without credit.

Today they ordered the expropriation of Repsol-YPF http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

Their trade deficit is huge and they're taking increasingly desperate measures. Inflation is likely to continue out of control (~25% likely).

Good analysis on their latest move: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/column-oil-idUKL2E8FG9Y420120416

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April 16, 2012, 10:52:59 PM
 #42

Quote
In the future, if 1 btc = 1 million dollars, then 1 satoshi will be 1 cent usd.

So you're saying, it's not going to be much help to Argentina now, but it could be in the future, if the price goes up a lot?
Seems to me, at a million dollars pr btc, it'll be a toy for the very rich, not something that can help the people being screwed over in Argentina right now.

1. Argentina can buy BTC for their entire currency in circulation without running out of BTC.
2. This is because such an action would raise the price of BTC, lets just say to 4.000US$/BTC.
3. Argentina may now "only" hold 3 million BTC, however those 3 million BTC will have increased in value to reflect entirely
the old currency.
4. Argentina would likely earn money doing this as the BTC rate would rise AFTER they bought it or at least lagging behind them doing so.
5. Ordinary Argentinians would indeed be able to use BTC just fine, but would trade in mili-BTC (1/1000 => 4US$/BTC) or maybe micro.
6. This is not a problem as BTC is indeed divisible down to 10^-8 or 0.000 0001 BTC.


As for the loans I would default, but try to make sure the initial loan was paid back - even with lost interest that should maintain decent trust in the Argentine people/government.
(I think the same for Greece, Italy, Spain and so on)

Paying back the loans only allocates real resources to bankers who CLEARLY gave loans for the wrong reasons to the wrong people (shady politicians).
That is not an allocation you want to make in these dire times.


Saving the economy? Well you need energy so building some wind turbines might be a good idea. That creates jobs and later the power drives factories and farming equipment.

Additionally you save your selves from huge costs on fossil fuels later - I pity the countries dead set on coal/oil/gas.


My country will have trouble too but 25% of our electricity will continue forever at little cost so that is a nice cushion to have.

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April 17, 2012, 02:36:08 AM
 #43

Gold is also very divisible, down to the atom in fact. And also very valuable, and scarce, just as bitcoin is/will be. You don't see poor people trading with gold though.

Yeah, but for some reason I couldn't find those five gold atoms I had in my pocket. And that's a pity, because I wanted to send them over the Internet to a guy in korea.

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muyuu
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April 17, 2012, 10:56:25 AM
 #44

As for the loans I would default, but try to make sure the initial loan was paid back - even with lost interest that should maintain decent trust in the Argentine people/government.
(I think the same for Greece, Italy, Spain and so on)

Greece maybe. Italy or Spain, no chance. Whatever turmoil they get into, they will remain in the Euro which won't be worthless overnight in any case. Simply because given their size, the EU cannot possibly afford to forfeit any significant amount of debt without crashing the whole EU economy. With Greece most is lost already (something like 80% has been forfeited already...) so nothing is out of the table if they insist in being completely reckless. The only reason they haven't been sent out is the fact that they don't want to set this precedent. Basically neither Spain nor Italy will be allowed to leave the Euro even if they wanted to. The economy of Greece is the size of a small province from Italy or Spain, it's a completely different scale we're talking about here.

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April 17, 2012, 04:35:55 PM
 #45

I'm pretty sure that modern oil exploration is a capital-intensive operation... it's not enough to own the resource, you need to be able to get it out.  Argentina doesn't have the necessary capital to get at its oil efficiently so it will need some foreign investment.

... let's think.  What's the best way to encourage foreign investment?

WRONG.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

The Argentinian government has gone all "Atlas Shrugged" and pinched 51% of a company.  I wonder how that's going to work out for them.




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April 18, 2012, 12:40:42 AM
 #46

I'm pretty sure that modern oil exploration is a capital-intensive operation... it's not enough to own the resource, you need to be able to get it out.  Argentina doesn't have the necessary capital to get at its oil efficiently so it will need some foreign investment.

... let's think.  What's the best way to encourage foreign investment?

WRONG.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17732910

The Argentinian government has gone all "Atlas Shrugged" and pinched 51% of a company.

+1

I wonder how that's going to work out for them.

I left out this part of the comment because the answer is obvious.

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April 19, 2012, 10:10:00 AM
 #47

Bill Bonner reporting from Argentina today:
This Is Argentina
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/this-is-argentina/2012/04/19/

Quote:
That’s what’s nice about Argentina. You know where you stand. You know the politicians are crooked and the bureaucrats are incompetent, if not completely mad. You know you have to find a way around them...a way to dodge their rules...a way to protect yourself. You know the government’s figures are lies and its promises are empty. You know what to do with its currency too — try to get rid of it at the earliest opportunity.

That’s why the federales in Argentina have new dogs on the job at the international airports. They’re not trying to stop people from bringing in weapons or contraband. They’re trying to stop people from taking out dollars!

Yes, dear reader, the papers tell us that the Argentines have trained dogs to sniff out dollars — striking fear in the hearts of those who would try to convert their pesos to dollars and take them where they might be safe.

Meanwhile, back in Argentina, the Kirchner government has announced the forced nationalization of the nation’s biggest oil company — YPF. Naturally. The government said it was unhappy with the way the owners were (not) investing in new development. So, they’re taking the company into their own hands — as if the penniless pampa feds will invest more!

What better way to convince foreign investors NOT to invest their money in Argentina; take away their assets. Heck, it worked for Cuba and Venezuela.

Seems transparently nutty. But that’s what’s so good about it. You know what is going on in Argentina. You know for a dead certainty that the government is corrupt and incompetent. And you know you have to watch out!

*** Fortunately, while the Argentines close doors publicly, they leave doors open privately. That is, it is a society like Sicily, where there are laws...and there are ways around them.

We were worried about the effects of another stupid law passed recently by the Argentine government. It prevents foreigners from owning large parcels of farmland. Since your editor owns two large parcels...and since even a blind, deaf and dumb man could not mistake him for an authentic Argentine...he would seem to be the very person the law is meant to restrain. So, we put the question to our lawyer.

“Yes,” he said. “That’s what the law says. But this is Argentina.”

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April 19, 2012, 01:14:01 PM
 #48

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.
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April 21, 2012, 06:26:48 PM
 #49

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.

I think the actual decisions the government is making carry a lot more weight and blame than whatever the press has to say.

Credit and investment are drying up and very logically so. I wouldn't invest in Argentina either with that kind of government, would you if you weren't in Argentina?

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April 22, 2012, 06:20:02 PM
 #50

Just wanted to notice that whether there are certainly a lot of problems with Argentina, I also think that we're facing a huge FUD campaign. Saddest thing is that this is the kind of campaign that could finish becoming true as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The powerful are fighting for power and the bills are always paid by the common, simple Argentines.

I think the actual decisions the government is making carry a lot more weight and blame than whatever the press has to say.

Credit and investment are drying up and very logically so. I wouldn't invest in Argentina either with that kind of government, would you if you weren't in Argentina?

I'm actually everyday less concerned about what governments are doing. If we keep doing our work on implementing freedom finely, on the long term governments destiny could be the one that Borges prefigured here:

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.
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April 23, 2012, 01:26:19 AM
 #51

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.

Good find!

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April 27, 2012, 04:23:49 PM
 #52

A worthwhile article, fact and data-filled:
Argentina - What Is Driving Kirchner?
April 27, 2012
http://seekingalpha.com/article/535611-argentina-what-is-driving-kirchner

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May 11, 2012, 03:16:39 PM
 #53

More tightening of imports and currency exchange. I wonder what will the situation be when energy consumption increases during the Southern Hemisphere winter.


(Spanish)
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472173-cristina-ratifico-controles-de-divisas-y-reconocio-dificultades-fiscales
Exchange rate AR$ vs US$: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472409-baja-el-dolar-en-medio-del-endurecimiento-de-los-controles-a-la-compra-de-divisas

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May 12, 2012, 01:20:24 AM
 #54

When the inflation is very high, and possibly will get even higher, investing in BTC will be a really good investment for Argentinians. Bitcoin will keep its value even if the local currency is destroyed/inflated. The Argentinians who have invested in Bitcoin will have something that has value, while the rest has worthless pesos.

Gold could of course do the same job, but Bitcoin is easier to keep hidden from government (you never know what governments do in times of crisis) you could use it to buy things online and use as a currency in the local community (instead of pesos). Another thing is that if you need to escape (this is if things get really bad, but you can never be too paranoid Wink), you could have BTC in an online wallet that could be used in the country you move to, without taking the risk of carrying lots of gold with you (and the pesos will in that situation be useless in other countries).
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May 12, 2012, 10:51:57 AM
 #55

Some people close to the government must be making a killing. The official exchange is 1 US$ = 4.4 AR$, and over 5 AR$ in the black market ("blue" dollar, they call it). They're also simply refusing dollars to takers.

(Spanish)
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472508-ya-es-muy-dificil-conseguir-dolares-en-el-mercado-formal
EDIT: http://www.ieco.clarin.com/economia/Dicen-bloqueo-compra-dolares-retorno_0_698930219.html

Corralito 2 looming on the horizon.

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May 14, 2012, 07:46:59 AM
 #56

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

By the way, rationing is here: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472986-se-hace-permanente-el-faltante-de-productos-que-controla-moreno


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May 17, 2012, 10:48:29 AM
 #57

The gap in the exchange between "official" US$ dollars and "blue dollars" (black market) sky-rockets as supply is tight and the government is trying to stop the informal market by all means.



http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1473881-ante-la-fuerte-presion-el-dolar-paralelo-se-tomo-un-respiro

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May 17, 2012, 03:48:58 PM
 #58

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

By the way, rationing is here: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1472986-se-hace-permanente-el-faltante-de-productos-que-controla-moreno



wow, that looks like urine  Grin
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May 17, 2012, 03:56:16 PM
 #59

Is there any easy way to send dollars/euros/pounds to Argentina outside of government control?

I don't know outside of control. You can do it on traditional ways (WU and MG) which AFAIK are working fine to receive funds (not to send). But I think they're going to convert the funds to ARS on paying...
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May 17, 2012, 04:01:48 PM
 #60

“What happened to the governments?” I inquired.

“It is said that they gradually fell into disuse. Elections were called, wars were declared, and attempts were made at imposing censorship—but no one on the planet paid any attention. The press stopped publishing pieces by those it called its ‘contributors,’ and also publishing their obituaries. Politicians had to find honest work; some became comedians, some witch doctors—some excelled at those occupations. The reality was no doubt more complex than this summary.”

Or the original, for spanish speakers:

-¿Qué sucedió con los gobiernos?

-Según la tradición fueron cayendo gradualmente en desuso. Llamaban a elecciones, declaraban guerras, imponían tarifas, confiscaban fortunas, ordenaban arrestos y pretendían imponer la censura y nadie en el planeta los acataba. La prensa dejó de publicar sus colaboraciones y sus efigies. Los políticos tuvieron que buscar oficios honestos; algunos fueron buenos cómicos o buenos curanderos. La realidad sin duda habrá sido más compleja que este resumen.

Good find!


The great Jorge Luis Borges : "I'm a modest anarchist. I believe in the individual, not in the state."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KyqsC2Zb5I
 

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