Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?

[mp420]

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious:  What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.

[Crypt_Current]

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious:  What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.

I see; thank you.

[bulanula]

I think price will double when the reward cuts in half in December.

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Buying and holding all I can in the meantime.

I would expect no less than $10 in December for sure.

If it is one good thing that SoiledCon showed us, it is this. When block reward was cut price immediately rose.

I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...

[hazek]

I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...

You have no idea about game theory do you?

[Stephen Gornick]

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012.  On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day.  The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

[bulanula]

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012.  On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day.  The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

[RyNinDaCleM]

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012.  On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day.  The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.

[notme]

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012.  On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day.  The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.

Good point, plus announcing you are changing it is very different from the BTC situation.  It is well known and will be mostly priced in by the time we get there.

[SkRRJyTC]

Just curious what you folks think.

Dont think so...

[SgtSpike]

Everyone who said Yes is now wrong. 

High:$7.21999

[BoardGameCoin]

I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'

[AmazonStuff]

Just curious what you folks think.

It will be $10+

[SgtSpike]

I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'

Meh, fine.  :p

[genuise]

I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'

Will you take last 1000 BTC bought VWAP of $7.2 at gox during last 30 minutes as adequate signal?

[paulie_w]

I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

is that true? has the adoption rate slowed? where is it possible to see such data/statistics?

[ineededausername]

Oh whoops, $7.23!  This is it!

[SkRRJyTC]

Oh whoops, $7.23!  This is it!

 

 

[BoardGameCoin]

I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'

Officially a new high for the year =)

[SgtSpike]

Failpicture is fail.  But

$7.90 FTW?

[ineededausername]

proudhon is shitting his pants!

proudhon being wrong:

My unscientific gut feeling is that if we break $6.8 we keep going to $7.   

That's probably right.  I still think $7.20 will provide some significant resistance.  There's still a chance $7.20 remains the 2012 high.

Awesome, the rally seems to be slowing down, the $6 wall tripled over the last 3 hours.

I'm sure we'll see it grow into the 30,000+ size in the coming days.  I don't see the price moving beyond $6 for some time, and I still think there's a good chance we've already seen the 2012 high.

$7.2x was the 2012 high.  Deal with it.

that boat has sailed and won't be coming back for a long time

I agree.  Not this year.  I think $7.20 will be the 2012 high.