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Author Topic: when is the exact month it will go from 50 btc to 25?  (Read 1963 times)
clonedone
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May 08, 2011, 12:15:06 PM
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srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?

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Grinder
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May 08, 2011, 12:17:40 PM
 #2

It's impossible to say, it depends on how much the difficulty increases.
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May 08, 2011, 12:30:12 PM
 #3

srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?
It's every 210,000 blocks. The graph (linked) suggests 2012/2013, but as Grinder mentioned it depends on difficulty. Difficulty adjusts to try and ensure that, on average, a block is generated every ten minutes. In practice, it may be that the network grows consistently faster than this, and difficulty increases lag behind - so more than six blocks per hour are generated over a long period, and we reach the 210,000th block faster than expected.

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May 08, 2011, 01:02:54 PM
 #4

ahh so generally around next year... i might buy another rig this summer then..

thanks guys

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May 08, 2011, 03:44:52 PM
 #5

So Bitcoin is ending in Dec. 2012?

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May 08, 2011, 04:05:08 PM
 #6

No - the amount per mined block drops by 50% from 50BTC to 25BTC.  This happens again in another 210,000 blocks from 25 to 12.5 and so on...

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May 08, 2011, 06:45:20 PM
 #7

So Bitcoin is ending in Dec. 2012?

Lol, sheeple.
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May 09, 2011, 04:16:34 PM
 #8

srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?

210,000(when the change occurs) - 122,922(current block) = 87078(blocks left)

87078 / 7(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 518(days till change)

518 / 30(days in a month) = 17.27(months left till change)

518 / 365(days in a year) = 1.419(years to change)

Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-9-2011, lunchtime in USA)  till the change.

Hope this helped you Smiley !

*7 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above for a more precise answer.   

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May 09, 2011, 04:31:37 PM
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srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?

210,000(when the change occurs) - 122,922(current block) = 87078(blocks left)

87078 / 7(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 518(days till change)

518 / 30(days in a month) = 17.27(months left till change)

518 / 365(days in a year) = 1.419(years to change)

Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-9-2011, lunchtime in USA)  till the change.

Hope this helped you Smiley !

*7 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above for a more precise answer.   

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May 10, 2011, 06:03:08 PM
 #10

Difficulty will be 164 000 000 starting from a 216 000 difficulty,  (next estimate)

given 7 block/hrs, a 16% increase for 43 generation for 756 times the difficulty.

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May 10, 2011, 06:48:31 PM
 #11

Difficulty will be 164 000 000 starting from a 216 000 difficulty,  (next estimate)

given 7 block/hrs, a 16% increase for 43 generation for 756 times the difficulty.


And network computation power will be >1000THash then? Probably not...

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May 10, 2011, 06:52:27 PM
 #12

At this point all that can be done is extrapolation and guessing for difficulty jumps.  The probability of the network continues to grow at 20-40% every 10-14 days is very small.  Right now it can and will happen due to the small / new nature of BitCoin, but that kind of growth simply can't be sustained for a long period of time .  Eventually you'd hit the point where your rate of growth is faster than the speed at which new computing power is created on the assembly lines.

I think (and hope) that the network speed levels out to a gradual growth rate in a few more months (so probably around 500-600k difficulty), at which point the growth would likely be linear rather than exponential.

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May 11, 2011, 01:48:26 AM
 #13

At this point all that can be done is extrapolation and guessing for difficulty jumps.  The probability of the network continues to grow at 20-40% every 10-14 days is very small.  Right now it can and will happen due to the small / new nature of BitCoin, but that kind of growth simply can't be sustained for a long period of time .  Eventually you'd hit the point where your rate of growth is faster than the speed at which new computing power is created on the assembly lines.

I think (and hope) that the network speed levels out to a gradual growth rate in a few more months (so probably around 500-600k difficulty), at which point the growth would likely be linear rather than exponential.

Fine!! Fine!!!! I said it was just an estimate.  Here is the equation at 6.5 blocks per hour. shesh  Wink

210,000(when the change occurs) - 123,203(current block) = 86797(blocks left)

86797 / 6.5(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 556(days till change)

556 / 30(days in a month) = 18.55(months left till change)

556 / 365(days in a year) = 1.524(years to change)

Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-10-2011, Bedtime for a normal person in the U.S..A)  till the change.

Hope this helped you   Grin !

*6.5 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above along with the current block number for a more precise answer.   

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