clonedone (OP)
|
|
May 08, 2011, 12:15:06 PM |
|
srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
|
Grinder
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1284
Merit: 1001
|
|
May 08, 2011, 12:17:40 PM |
|
It's impossible to say, it depends on how much the difficulty increases.
|
|
|
|
LMGTFY
|
|
May 08, 2011, 12:30:12 PM |
|
srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?
It's every 210,000 blocks. The graph (linked) suggests 2012/2013, but as Grinder mentioned it depends on difficulty. Difficulty adjusts to try and ensure that, on average, a block is generated every ten minutes. In practice, it may be that the network grows consistently faster than this, and difficulty increases lag behind - so more than six blocks per hour are generated over a long period, and we reach the 210,000th block faster than expected.
|
This space intentionally left blank.
|
|
|
clonedone (OP)
|
|
May 08, 2011, 01:02:54 PM |
|
ahh so generally around next year... i might buy another rig this summer then..
thanks guys
|
|
|
|
benjamindees
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 08, 2011, 03:44:52 PM |
|
So Bitcoin is ending in Dec. 2012?
|
Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics
|
|
|
JWU42
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 08, 2011, 04:05:08 PM |
|
No - the amount per mined block drops by 50% from 50BTC to 25BTC. This happens again in another 210,000 blocks from 25 to 12.5 and so on...
|
|
|
|
gigabytecoin
|
|
May 08, 2011, 06:45:20 PM |
|
So Bitcoin is ending in Dec. 2012?
Lol, sheeple.
|
|
|
|
BookLover
|
|
May 09, 2011, 04:16:34 PM |
|
srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?
210,000(when the change occurs) - 122,922(current block) = 87078(blocks left) 87078 / 7(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 518(days till change) 518 / 30(days in a month) = 17.27(months left till change) 518 / 365(days in a year) = 1.419(years to change) Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-9-2011, lunchtime in USA) till the change. Hope this helped you ! *7 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above for a more precise answer.
|
|
|
|
Fiyasko
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1001
Okey Dokey Lokey
|
|
May 09, 2011, 04:31:37 PM |
|
srry for the noob question, i just wanted to know the exact month, im pretty sure its next year though right?
210,000(when the change occurs) - 122,922(current block) = 87078(blocks left) 87078 / 7(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 518(days till change) 518 / 30(days in a month) = 17.27(months left till change) 518 / 365(days in a year) = 1.419(years to change) Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-9-2011, lunchtime in USA) till the change. Hope this helped you ! *7 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above for a more precise answer. "Flawless, Victory"
|
|
|
|
Transisto
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1731
Merit: 1008
|
|
May 10, 2011, 06:03:08 PM |
|
Difficulty will be 164 000 000 starting from a 216 000 difficulty, (next estimate)
given 7 block/hrs, a 16% increase for 43 generation for 756 times the difficulty.
|
|
|
|
LiquidMiner
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
|
|
May 10, 2011, 06:48:31 PM |
|
Difficulty will be 164 000 000 starting from a 216 000 difficulty, (next estimate)
given 7 block/hrs, a 16% increase for 43 generation for 756 times the difficulty.
And network computation power will be >1000THash then? Probably not...
|
|
|
|
eleuthria
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1007
|
|
May 10, 2011, 06:52:27 PM |
|
At this point all that can be done is extrapolation and guessing for difficulty jumps. The probability of the network continues to grow at 20-40% every 10-14 days is very small. Right now it can and will happen due to the small / new nature of BitCoin, but that kind of growth simply can't be sustained for a long period of time . Eventually you'd hit the point where your rate of growth is faster than the speed at which new computing power is created on the assembly lines.
I think (and hope) that the network speed levels out to a gradual growth rate in a few more months (so probably around 500-600k difficulty), at which point the growth would likely be linear rather than exponential.
|
RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
|
|
|
BookLover
|
|
May 11, 2011, 01:48:26 AM |
|
At this point all that can be done is extrapolation and guessing for difficulty jumps. The probability of the network continues to grow at 20-40% every 10-14 days is very small. Right now it can and will happen due to the small / new nature of BitCoin, but that kind of growth simply can't be sustained for a long period of time . Eventually you'd hit the point where your rate of growth is faster than the speed at which new computing power is created on the assembly lines.
I think (and hope) that the network speed levels out to a gradual growth rate in a few more months (so probably around 500-600k difficulty), at which point the growth would likely be linear rather than exponential.
Fine!! Fine!!!! I said it was just an estimate. Here is the equation at 6.5 blocks per hour. shesh 210,000(when the change occurs) - 123,203(current block) = 86797(blocks left) 86797 / 6.5(average blocks per hour*) / 24(hours in a day) = 556(days till change) 556 / 30(days in a month) = 18.55(months left till change) 556 / 365(days in a year) = 1.524(years to change) Here is a precise answer to your question assuming the average rate is seven blocks an hour from now(5-10-2011, Bedtime for a normal person in the U.S..A) till the change. Hope this helped you ! *6.5 blocks an hour is an estimate, if you find a more informed prediction just plug it into the equation above along with the current block number for a more precise answer.
|
|
|
|
|