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Author Topic: Is now the time to buy?  (Read 3124 times)
TheBitMan
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April 06, 2012, 11:05:41 PM
 #1

Do you think Bitcoin will go back up to 20+?
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April 06, 2012, 11:08:23 PM
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Yes maybe or nearly within the next eighteen months either that or there stay below $6 until the new year  Huh

Edit: I can see $7 maybe $9 definitely by January  Undecided

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April 06, 2012, 11:09:05 PM
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Yes maybe or nearly within the next eighteen months either that or there stay below $6 until the new year  Huh
I guess if anyone really knew they'd be rich..
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April 06, 2012, 11:11:35 PM
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Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

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April 06, 2012, 11:13:42 PM
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Yes maybe or nearly within the next eighteen months either that or there stay below $6 until the new year  Huh
I guess if anyone really knew they'd be rich..

Yes bitcoin is still too new and uncertain for major investment but if it can stay above $4 for the next 24 months I can see more people investing in it although if BTC doesn't reach $9 by January you can see a lot of miners packing up and the chance of bitcoin becoming more centralised very likely  Cry

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April 07, 2012, 12:13:11 AM
 #6

Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

I'd like to think this is the case, and I'm quite certain that people who understand how mining works would view it as such, but I think the value may depend on how quickly people are looking for large quantities that will affect the value in relation to the rate at which the coins are produced.

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April 07, 2012, 06:22:03 AM
 #7

Wait till Sunday night to buy.
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April 07, 2012, 06:54:35 AM
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Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

If people are set on buying X dollars worth of coins every day regardless of dollar price then a double makes sense (with some other probably false assumptions). But if people want X coins it all depends on their elasticity of demand and it could be a much bigger increase. I think the first is much closer to the truth, but I think that in addition to a supply decrease we'll experience a demand increase over the next year (and the next and next and next...).

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April 08, 2012, 12:23:51 AM
 #9

Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

I'd like to think this is the case, and I'm quite certain that people who understand how mining works would view it as such, but I think the value may depend on how quickly people are looking for large quantities that will affect the value in relation to the rate at which the coins are produced.
Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

If people are set on buying X dollars worth of coins every day regardless of dollar price then a double makes sense (with some other probably false assumptions). But if people want X coins it all depends on their elasticity of demand and it could be a much bigger increase. I think the first is much closer to the truth, but I think that in addition to a supply decrease we'll experience a demand increase over the next year (and the next and next and next...).
Good points. I don't say these things with great confidence. We will be entering untested water when the reward halves.

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April 08, 2012, 12:31:49 AM
 #10

I did the math on this.  Assuming Market cap increases at a constant rate.  There will be a small effect from the block reward getting cut in half.  With this assumption, bitcoin price will increase at USD .08  per month instead of $.04.  I did my calculation starting from the bottom after the spike to USD 30.

Of course, today we are seeing that bitcoin is having trouble supporting the USD 5 level.  This is not inline with my assumption.  Who knows?

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April 08, 2012, 12:41:31 AM
 #11

Now it is

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April 08, 2012, 12:44:52 AM
 #12

Now it is

Buy and hold that is.   Grin

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July 08, 2012, 11:52:00 PM
 #13

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

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July 09, 2012, 01:33:15 AM
 #14

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

Once all the coins are mined, we'll all be dead.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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unclemantis
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July 09, 2012, 01:34:35 AM
 #15

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

Once all the coins are mined, we'll all be dead.

Just goes to show you what I know Smiley

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July 09, 2012, 02:13:10 AM
 #16

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

Money is not a matter of "whoever has the most wins". If you have twice as much money as I do, that doesn't mean you control the power and I control nothing. It just means you have twice as much power as I do. Everyone has power in proportion to their wealth. The poor have less power than the rich, but they are not completely powerless. Contrast this with a typical democratic government, in which whoever has the most votes controls all the power and everyone else has nothing.

In any case, the only way to exercise the power that money provides is to spend it, after which you don't have as much money as you did, and somebody else has more. If somebody has a lot of money but they don't actually do anything with it, that money might as well not exist as far as the rest of the economy is concerned.

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July 09, 2012, 04:22:20 AM
 #17

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

Money is not a matter of "whoever has the most wins". If you have twice as much money as I do, that doesn't mean you control the power and I control nothing. It just means you have twice as much power as I do. Everyone has power in proportion to their wealth. The poor have less power than the rich, but they are not completely powerless. Contrast this with a typical democratic government, in which whoever has the most votes controls all the power and everyone else has nothing.

In any case, the only way to exercise the power that money provides is to spend it, after which you don't have as much money as you did, and somebody else has more. If somebody has a lot of money but they don't actually do anything with it, that money might as well not exist as far as the rest of the economy is concerned.

Yeah, money is the fairest sort of power there is. Unlike political power you have to part with it to use it. You hand it off to someone else in even measure to what you want them to do for you. Not near as much distinction when the ability to produce money for nothing is a political power, but it applies to good money.

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July 09, 2012, 04:30:01 AM
 #18

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

Once all the coins are mined, we'll all be dead.

Is that why bitcoin is called a killer app?
notme
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July 09, 2012, 04:30:52 AM
 #19

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

Once all the coins are mined, we'll all be dead.

Is that why bitcoin is called a killer app?

yes  Roll Eyes

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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realnowhereman
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July 09, 2012, 12:13:01 PM
 #20

Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

If people knew that in one week it was guaranteed that the price would double, it stands to reason that they would buy now.  Of course that would bring the price up until it was doubled, and people would stop buying.

But then we would all know that that was what would happen, so a week before that we'd buy.  Oh... except then the doubling would happen two weeks before the guaranteed double date.

So a week before that... etc, etc.

If an event is known to happen in the future, then the market will ensure that the effect on its price then is included in the price now.

There will be no doubling of price in December; that event is already priced in.

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