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farfiman
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July 09, 2012, 09:04:39 AM
 #561

I want to buy 1 bond TODAY.

I can buy a PPT.x bond for 1.04-1.05 with  a return of 1.28  with .32 insurance
or a different brand of PPT for lets say 1-1.02 with return of 6.8 a week (1.3-1.32 if compounded? ) with  no insurance.

so one is 0.23 profit  in 4 weeks - with insurance
the other 0.3 profit   in 4 weeks  - no insurance  

so yes - the insurance is now coming out of the buyers pocket.
that is cost of 0.07  to have 0.32 insurance . at any given moment its not that bad
in the long term of course its not worth while. but that's how it is in any insurance you do- health,car,home.
since there is the risk of a default at any given moment for some its worthwhile
( and yes I carry some as well among other varieties of PPT stuff)


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piotr_n
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July 09, 2012, 09:04:53 AM
 #562

ONLY 310 bitcoins are the interest, the rest is 1000 removed from BS&T for 1000 being added, it STAYS 3000 BT&T like at week 3. There's a 1310 removal for a 1000 in. BS&T funds will stay the same like between week 4 & 5 & 6... That chart is not right.
You're right.

"BTC in BS&T" never goes to 4000, but stays at 3000 BTC.
Thank you for correcting me.

But everything else on the chart is correct - right?

Code:
Week no | Depositor of 1000 BTC | Insurance Fund | BTC in BS&T | Withdraw from BS&T for 1000 BTC deposited 4 weeks ago
=============================================================================================================================
0       | PPT shareholders      | 0 BTC          | 1000 BTC    | -
1       | Buyers of PPT.A       | 1000 BTC       | 1000 BTC    | -
2       | Buyers of PPT.B       | 1000 BTC       | 2000 BTC    | -
3       | Buyers of PPT.C       | 1000 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | -
4       | Buyers of PPT.D       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 280 BTC to the Fund, initial 1000 + new 30 BTC back to PPT shareholders
5       | Buyers of PPT.E       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.A, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
6       | Buyers of PPT.A       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.B, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
7       | Buyers of PPT.B       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.C, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
8       | Buyers of PPT.C       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.D, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
9       | Buyers of PPT.D       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.E, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
10      | Buyers of PPT.E       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.A, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
11      | Buyers of PPT.A       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.B, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
12      | Buyers of PPT.B       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.C, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
13      | Buyers of PPT.C       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.D, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
14      | Buyers of PPT.D       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.E, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
15      | Buyers of PPT.E       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.A, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
... and so on ...

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Namworld
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July 09, 2012, 09:09:46 AM
 #563

ONLY 310 bitcoins are the interest, the rest is 1000 removed from BS&T for 1000 being added, it STAYS 3000 BT&T like at week 3. There's a 1310 removal for a 1000 in. BS&T funds will stay the same like between week 4 & 5 & 6... That chart is not right.
You're right.

"BTC in BS&T" never goes to 4000, but stays at 3000 BTC.
Thank you for correcting me.

But everything else on the chart is correct - right?


Well then everywhere after on the chart, only 3000 BTC are in BS&T at any time, meaning there's not the 4000 sitting there garnering the 310 BTC monthly interest. There wouldn't be enough BTC in the funds at any time to earn the interest.

Not sure what actual facts about this are. Haven't been following PPT.X issuance much.

Like that it seems they are indeed getting their insurance capital at risk at all time, but get 3% because of the compounded interest while still paying 28%. 3% monthly x 4 PPT.X active at any time = 3% per week on their 1000 BTC...

Suddenly that doesn't seem like a good thing to offer those bonds. I'm at a loss about how they do it but I don't feel like checking how they issued it. How much premium do they sell the bonds usually over 1 on average (depending on buy offer)? If they sell over 1.04 they get a small extra % on their risked capital for offering the bonds.

But you say BurtW agreed that the bond actually payed for the insurance? I'm at a loss. In any case that chart cannot work if they pay 28% monthly interest.

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piotr_n
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July 09, 2012, 09:22:22 AM
 #564

Well then everywhere after on the chart, only 3000 BTC are in BS&T at any time, meaning there's not the 4000 sitting there garnering the 310 BTC monthly interest.
That's the whole point to not have 4000 in BS&T, but only 3000.
Each 1000 BTC works separately, for its 1310 BTC to be withdrawn 4 weeks later.

So maybe try to tell me where is the chart wrong now?

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Namworld
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July 09, 2012, 09:28:39 AM
 #565

3000 x 31% in 4 weeks = 930 earned every 4 weeks

Dividends paid each week = 280, x4 weeks = 1120

To be able to retrieve that 1310 weekly, you need to have a full 4000 BTC, 1000 for each PPT.X being active, otherwise you have the equivalent of having 750 BTC working for each PPT.X

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piotr_n
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July 09, 2012, 09:31:41 AM
 #566

To be able to retrieve that 1310 weekly, you need to have a full 4000 BTC
No you don't. Smiley
You only need to put 1000 into BS&T every week, to withdraw 1310 every week 4 weeks later.

How is the chart wrong?

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DutchBrat
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July 09, 2012, 09:33:42 AM
 #567

This whole back-and-forth bickering is all about one thing:

The perception if losing a profit constitutes risk

And that perception is different for everyone

If you sit down at a blackjack table with $100, run it up to $10.000 but leave the table with the $100 you came with - did you lose money ?

In my opinion you did: $9.900 to be exact... other people might say they left break-even... is money still on the table (i.e. before you cash it) casino-money or your money ?

All depends on your outlook in life

So any further arguing about this is senseless imo
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July 09, 2012, 09:35:36 AM
 #568

But there's 3000 in the funds, not the 4000 planned! Because you stole 1000 BTC to refund insurance, there's 3000 BTC left earning interest, or 750 per active PPT.X share, instead of 1000.

1000 DOES earn you 1310 after four week. But you don't ACTUALLY HAVE 1000 for each PPT.X, just 750!

Quote
3000 x 31% in 4 weeks = 930 earned every 4 weeks

Dividends paid each week = 280, x4 weeks = 1120

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PatrickHarnett
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July 09, 2012, 09:37:39 AM
 #569


But everything else on the chart is right, isn't it?

Code:
Week no | Depositor of 1000 BTC | Insurance Fund | BTC in BS&T | Withdraw from BS&T for 1000 BTC deposited 4 weeks ago
=============================================================================================================================
0       | PPT shareholders      | 0 BTC          | 1000 BTC    | -

I didn't want to comment, but you asked politely.  The first row is incorrect, as the 1000 BTC was not placed in BS&T, but 1280 BTC placed in the fund.

The other item I could correct is the differentiation between the PPT.DIV pay outs (what you have labeled PPT shareholders) and the core PPT holders of the 36 shares that place the capital at risk still have 3860 coins sitting idle in the event of default.

The other distraction here is that the insurance was never free for purchasers, and there was a premium paid, and that is the profit that goes to the PPT.DIV holders.  With the change in interest rates from BS&T a decision was made, on the information available, to change the rate of pass-through.  It is not the worst pass-through rate available on the forum, but the bonds do have some other features that people value including tradability and liquidity (although that is quite low currently).

At the end of the day, if Pirate goes bust, I have a 640 BTC hole in my accounts as do the five other initial funders.  I'm off for some sleep and I hope your day is going well as you hoped.
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July 09, 2012, 09:42:00 AM
 #570


But everything else on the chart is right, isn't it?

Code:
Week no | Depositor of 1000 BTC | Insurance Fund | BTC in BS&T | Withdraw from BS&T for 1000 BTC deposited 4 weeks ago
=============================================================================================================================
0       | PPT shareholders      | 0 BTC          | 1000 BTC    | -

I didn't want to comment, but you asked politely.  The first row is incorrect, as the 1000 BTC was not placed in BS&T, but 1280 BTC placed in the fund.
It doesn't change anything.
Either way you were able to withdraw your initial capital at exactly the same moment; after the first PPT.D got sold.

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Namworld
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July 09, 2012, 09:46:49 AM
 #571

NO! Because there would only be 3000 left in BS&T!

You can't earn that 31% for 1000 on four PPT.X (1000 each) at the same time while just having three 1000 slices in the account earning you interest! You need the full 4000. Otherwise you take one whole slice out that's supposed to earn that 310 BTC interest monthly. You're effectivly having 750 BTC working per PPT.X!

3000 x 31% in 4 weeks = 930 earned every 4 weeks

Dividends paid each week = 280, x4 weeks = 1120 paid weekly.

It does not work.

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July 09, 2012, 09:47:57 AM
 #572

NO! Because there would only be 3000 left in BS&T!

You can't earn that 31% for 1000 on four PPT.X (1000 each) at the same time while just having three 1000 slices in the account earning you interest! You need the full 4000. Otherwise you take one whole slice out that's supposed to earn that 310 BTC interest monthly. You're effectivly having 750 BTC working per PPT.X!

3000 x 31% in 4 weeks = 930 earned every 4 weeks

Dividends paid each week = 280, x4 weeks = 1120 paid weekly.

It does not work.
YES! Smiley

How is the chart wrong?

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July 09, 2012, 09:51:49 AM
 #573

The chart is wrong for the interest part! You're retrieving 310 x 4 monthly = 1240 interest when 31% x 3000 in BS&T earns you 930 monthly.

You're receiving 1310 per month back on 1000 every four week, yes!

But that 3000 BTC fully rotates every 3 weeks instead of 4!

You can't earn the full interest for 1000 with 4 actives (interest on a full 4000) while having 3000 in BS&T

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piotr_n
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July 09, 2012, 09:54:27 AM
 #574

The chart is wrong for the interest part! You're retrieving 310 x 4 monthly = 1240 interest when 31% x 3000 in BS&T earns you 930 monthly.

You're receiving 1310 per month back on 1000 every four week, yes!

But that 3000 BTC fully rotates every 3 weeks instead of 4!

You can't earn the full interest for 1000 with 4 actives (interest on a full 4000) while having 3000 in BS&T
OK - I give up with you, but just for the record: you are wrong.

"The interest part" - that's a part of the illusion they are selling. Smiley

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July 09, 2012, 10:05:11 AM
 #575

Then they earn less in interest then what they pay out.

With 3000 in BS&T and the 1000 deposit with 1000+interest weekly withdrawal, the initial funds for in investment in PPT.A would come out 3 weeks later instead of 4 weeks, earning you only 3/4th of the actual 310 you'd normally get.

3000 in BS&T x 31% monthly compounded interest = 930 MONTHLY INTEREST

310 interest weekly retrieved x 4 weeks monthly = 1240 MONTHLY PAID OUT

You receive 3/4 x 310 = 232.5 would be the weekly interest you get because you have 3/4th of the funds in BS&T.

232.5 x 4 weeks = 930 monthly

To be able to retrieve 310 interest weekly instead of in 4 weeks, you need to have the equivalent of 4 weeks of funds (a full 4000) at all time in BS&T.

Seems there was some confusion just there.

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July 09, 2012, 10:14:29 AM
 #576

You are just looking at this from a wrong perspective, thus the illusion you experience.

Your approach of "x 4 weeks monthly" is putting your view at the misleading angle.

There are 4 separate investments, 1000 each, and you never pay all of them at the same time, but only one per week.
That is why you don't need to have 4000 in BS&T - you only need to have as much as needed for the next week's payment...
And as you see at the chart, which you helped me to correct, 3000 is enough to perpetually handle all the weekly payments

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July 09, 2012, 11:00:52 AM
 #577

You are just looking at this from a wrong perspective, thus the illusion you experience.

Your approach of "x 4 weeks monthly" is putting your view at the misleading angle.

There are 4 separate investments, 1000 each, and you never pay all of them at the same time, but only one per week.
That is why you don't need to have 4000 in BS&T

4 investments, 1000 each, but there's 3000 earning interest.

Updated your table starting at week 1 with actual interests put in. Starting from week 4, you remove that 1310 BTC for 1000 in, making it a minus 310 BTC in BS&T.
|PPT.A|PPT.B|PPT.C|PPT.D|PPT.E|Total theorical PPT.Div funds earning interest|BS&T actual funds|Fund
Week 0|0|0|0|0|0|0|1000|0
Week 1|1000|0|0|0|0|1000|1070(7%)|1000
Week 2|1070|1000|0|0|0|2070|2144.9(7%+1000)|1000
Week 3|1144.9|1070|1000|0|0|3214.9|3295.04(7%+1000)|1000
Week 4|1225.0|1144.9|1070|1000|0|4439.9|3214.89(7%-310.8)|1280
Week 5|0 (-1310.8)|1225.0|1144.9|1070|1000|4439.9|3129.13 (7%-310.8)|1280
Week 6|1000|0 (-1310.8)|1225.0|1144.9|1070|4439.9|3037.37 (7%-310.8)|1280
Week 7|1070|1000|0 (-1310.8)|1225.0|1144.9|4439.9|2939.19 (7%-310.8)|1280
Week 9|1144.9|1070|1000|0 (-1310.8)|1225.0|4439.9|2834.13(7%-310.8)|1280

Oh how weird, the capital in BS&T lowers instead of staying stable? That's because there's 7% interest on 3000 BTC (210 BTC) you have to spread on 4 x 1000 investments maturing simulteanously. Which mean you need to allocate that 210 BTC you get weekly among 4 PPT.DIV, which equals to 52.5 BTC for each. Which equals 5.25% weekly interest!

Thus why you need the 4000 BTC invested in BS&T at all time for the interests in your chart to work.

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July 09, 2012, 11:27:18 AM
 #578

I could have made it much simpler...

You have 3000 BTC in BS&T which pirate pays 7% on weekly. Pirate adds 210 BTC weekly to your BS&T account.
You withdraw 1310 to pay back + interest while adding back 1000 from new bond sold each week. You widthdraw a net 310 BTC weekly from your BS&T account.

Net result: Your BS&T account loses money each week.

You have 4 PPT.Div simulteanously earning 7% weekly (28% total weekly) on 1000 BTC, you need 4 simulteanous 1000 BTC deposits in BS&T to earn 7% on each of those. With only 3000, you earn 3 x 7% of 1000 or 21% weekly. A huge difference.

Your chart removes the investment from BS&T after 3 week instead of 4. You need 4000 for the 4 weeks rotation.

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July 09, 2012, 12:39:52 PM
 #579

Sorry I said I was giving up because I was well aware that I'm unable to teach a color-blind to distinguish colors.
But I will try one more hopeless time, since you are probably waiting for my reply.

Just have a look at the chart again.
  • PPT.A get into the system at week 1 and gets out of it at week 5
  • PPT.B get into the system at week 2 and gets out of it at week 6
  • PPT.C get into the system at week 3 and gets out of it at week 7
  • PPT.D get into the system at week 4 and gets out of it at week 8
  • PPT.E get into the system at week 5 and gets out of it at week 9
  • PPT.A get into the system at week 6 and gets out of it at week 10
  • and so on...

So, if it wasn't possible for the 3000 BTC deposit to handle all the payments, then how is it possible that it is possible on the chart? Smiley
Or the other way around: if it is possible on the chart, why it must not be possible in the reality?

Code:
Week no | Depositor of 1000 BTC | Insurance Fund | BTC in BS&T | Withdraw from BS&T for 1000 BTC deposited 4 weeks ago
=============================================================================================================================
0       | PPT shareholders      | 0 BTC          | 1000 BTC    | -
1       | Buyers of PPT.A       | 1000 BTC       | 1000 BTC    | -
2       | Buyers of PPT.B       | 1000 BTC       | 2000 BTC    | -
3       | Buyers of PPT.C       | 1000 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | -
4       | Buyers of PPT.D       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 280 BTC to the Fund, initial 1000 + new 30 BTC back to PPT shareholders
5       | Buyers of PPT.E       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.A, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
6       | Buyers of PPT.A       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.B, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
7       | Buyers of PPT.B       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.C, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
8       | Buyers of PPT.C       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.D, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
9       | Buyers of PPT.D       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.E, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders
10      | Buyers of PPT.E       | 1280 BTC       | 3000 BTC    | 1280 BTC to buy back PPT.A, 30 BTC to PPT shareholders

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July 09, 2012, 01:07:33 PM
 #580

To tell you all the truth I have not read anything that piotr_n has written for a long time but in order to hopefully eventually stop all this unneeded posting about what you think we may or may not do I will tell you exactly what we actually do:

[...]  
Oh, that definitely cleared up all the doubts. Good job, man! Smiley

Never read anything people say - this way you can abstract from all the arguments, while keeping to clarify things that nobody wonders about, which will make your fake insurance business even more honest Smiley

Check out gocoin - my original project of a bitcoin client written in Go, with some unique features.
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