You heard it hear 1st

[Xiaoxiao]

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid".  

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

[Pkuwag]

You are one intelligent man

[TrollinU]

Some exceptionally mediocre members here believe in bitcoin too. You don't have to be a supreme intelligent being to believe. I would also disagree about the cultist part. There is a huge cultist following present here.

[thezerg]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

[figmentofmyass]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

fair enough. what makes BTC the obvious alternative? in theory, i could see BTC being used for international settlement of accounts. but in practice, i see no reason why it is the obvious answer.

[Room101]

BTC is for the poor, not the rich. I travel to india quite a bit, and people there are just starting to get it. 6 -12 month fluctuations are irrelevant. It's time is coming, in the short term in may not make a bunch of lazy assholes super rich like they were planning, but it will full fill its promise.

[Newbie1022]

More or less correct. It has a lot of utility for black market applications and international remittance (especially if the price stabilizes... but at the same time if the price stabilizes then it cuts into the exchange aspect of it all).

There is also the expectation problem. If the price jumped dramatically, but not quite so exponentially due to Gox driving up the price then reaching a new ATH would not seem so far out of reach and a sustainable cycling up would seem more plausible. At this juncture, however, bag holders would be thrilled to see $600, again... we have a lot of people who no longer believe and are, more or less, looking for a respectable, face-saving exit point.

So, yea, going long would be insane and staying in is ok if you have a crypto fetish with the hope of maybe showing your kids that once upon a time you had a stake in this bold and crazy idea. It's not worthless and it is cool... but that doesn't mean, at least in terms of price, that the s--- isn't going to hit the fan.

[montreal]

like Barry Silbert said, bitcoin will have a binary outcome....there will be either a total loss of principal or a very, very high return. bitcoin may seem "overpriced & overbought" now, but the market cap is very tiny compared to its potential if bitcoin is widely adopted. people love to debate $300 vs $400 vs $500 for short term, but in a few years these price ranges won't be relevant or discussed (0-$10 or over 1k). unfortunately i think if your right about the price dropping as low as sub $50, it would be a fatal blow for bitcoin and confidence for recovery/mass adoption.

[beetcoin]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is. i know most here won't like hearing it, but illegal activity and semi-anonymity is a big feature of bitcoin. just take a look at the whole jennifer lawrence/celebrity leak incident. the guy on 4chan was asking for bitcoin because he would get away with supplying the pictures and receiving BTC without having to reveal his identity.

[windjc]

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid". 

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar.  Since your a "trader" and all.

[Newbie1022]

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid". 

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar.  Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

[marky89]

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid". 

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar.  Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

while i think there's a good chance there is more down from here, i think it's very risky to short here. i had a short from low 510s and closed it too early, but i can't risk opening again down here. too many people shorting. gonna get squeezed.

[Newbie1022]

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid". 

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar.  Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

while i think there's a good chance there is more down from here, i think it's very risky to short here. i had a short from low 510s and closed it too early, but i can't risk opening again down here. too many people shorting. gonna get squeezed.

Yea, I have a stop loss around 488 (I'll reassess then if we go up before we go back down)... not very high at all... I don't care to risk getting totally raped on a bounce back, but the general sentiment is down and if we drop hard enough margin calls will take care of the rest... so on the reward side it is pretty reasonable.

[falllling]

agreed, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down to the final capitulation!

[tabnloz]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is.

In this sense bitcoin is like the OWS movement; no one specific and stated use or goal. That for me is the best thing about it. You can love it for the libertarian aspect, the ability to stay relatively private, to be able to participate on the deep web. Or you can save on overseas transfers, save on CC fees, make a statement about government money printing, send value instantaneously, be fascinated by coding or algorithms or alt coins or blockchain technology.

For each angle there is a use case. Doesn't mean all or any will work or be the leader, in fact it is debatable whether spreading the focus is a help or a hindrance. On one hand a narrowed focus is a target but can be implemented quicker while multiple fronts can see one emerge from stealth development.

But no, i don't think there is any way it will go to $50 just on the strength of poor sentiment or because the St thinks it is overbought.

[Newbie1022]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is.

In this sense bitcoin is like the OWS movement; no one specific and stated use or goal. That for me is the best thing about it. You can love it for the libertarian aspect, the ability to stay relatively private, to be able to participate on the deep web. Or you can save on overseas transfers, save on CC fees, make a statement about government money printing, send value instantaneously, be fascinated by coding or algorithms or alt coins or blockchain technology.

For each angle there is a use case. Doesn't mean all or any will work or be the leader, in fact it is debatable whether spreading the focus is a help or a hindrance. On one hand a narrowed focus is a target but can be implemented quicker while multiple fronts can see one emerge from stealth development.

But no, i don't think there is any way it will go to $50 just on the strength of poor sentiment or because the St thinks it is overbought.

To be fair, OP did not actually provide a timeline on when it would go down. Instead, he basically said it is going to go down hard before it would ever, if it did ever, go up again (to say the $1000+ range). Taken as that and nothing more, it is reasonable. That doesn't mean that it will happen... it means it is reasonable.

[spiderbrain]

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

[FattyMcButterpants]

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

you say you'd be thrilled -- and i've seen others say that as well. do you really think so? it's easy to say now, won't feel the same if/when we get there. i got in mostly the $60s and $70s.... seeing $50 would scare me a bit.

[falllling]

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

[Melbustus]

Sheesh, this is all so very reminiscent of Q3-Q4 2011...