You heard it hear 1st

[exocytosis]

like Barry Silbert said, bitcoin will have a binary outcome....

A lot of people have made this claim, without any reasoning. Zero arguments for why it must be so.

Bitcoin might just as well stay at the level it's at right now. It doesn't have to follow the wishes and delusions of cultists and scammers like Silbert.

[giveBTCpls]

Listen, it's simple. We'll need a couple more years of being bitchslapped by Ben Bernakle and friends, and once USD and EUR are suffocating in devaluation, then maybe, maybe people wakes the fuck up and appreciates what BTC constitutes.

[Chalkbot]

Well, certainly none of us heard it here first, and everything you pointed to in OP has been true all along, so evidently the price of bitcoin doesn't care about any of those things.

Good luck with your strategies.

[Brewins]

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

I guess no one mine for less than $100/Bitcoin today only considering energy.

This is why much less than the current price is not a reasonable scenario without being together with a collapse in the network.

[Newbie1022]

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

I guess no one mine for less than $100/Bitcoin today only considering energy.

This is why much less than the current price is not a reasonable scenario without being together with a collapse in the network.

This. Which is why people are shorting at this price. Even if you see a cataclysm as a narrow possibility, it is a possibility... and one with a substantial pay off. Except for those who are just super Bitcoin fans, and that is totally legit, why wouldn't you short and just have a narrow stop loss in case of a bounce back. You'll probably lose a little, but the pay off v. risk v. probability makes for a decent bet so long as you properly use stop losses while we are in the zone of danger. F--- it, I am going for the gusto!

Or... to put it another way... we are a couple dumps and cascades away from paying off my student loans. For a couple percentage points risk to my asset base... I'll play that game.

[Tzupy]

So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters
that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low.
My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011,
simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though.

[Newbie1022]

So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters
that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low.
My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011,
simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though.

This is the more likely scenario. I think some people are wondering whether the VCs, big mining operations, and other infrastructure players might get spooked at that despondency stage, though. Will panic beget more panic. The velocity of the any potential dip will be very telling.

[Wary]

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

fair enough. what makes BTC the obvious alternative? in theory, i could see BTC being used for international settlement of accounts. but in practice, i see no reason why it is the obvious answer.

If Germany stored their reserves in bitcoins, rather than in gold, USA wouldn't be able to steal them.

[lumierre]

Behind the scenes we are making all time highs.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=

[JimboToronto]

Sheesh, this is all so very reminiscent of Q3-Q4 2011...

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

[dropt]

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

A good portion of the people here didn't even know about Bitcoin prior to Nov 13.

[spazzdla]

I dunno it seems everytime we go sub $400 people to buy mode crazy.. can't blame them.

[Hunyadi]

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

A good portion of the people here didn't even know about Bitcoin prior to Nov 13.

It is natural, after all, it is exponential growth...but of course it is quite annoying at times 

[nuff]

Bitcoin was conceived to be a form of digital money. But now, Bitcoin is no longer digital money. It's actually digital gold. And just like gold, now $1200 an ounce, it is near impossible for gold to be below $100 an ounce, people would be mad buying should it ever be that low and the price will be up again. It's a hypothetical situation what OP is describing, and it only proves that he really has no idea what Bitcoin is and really shouldn't be making predictions. It's like a banker trying to predict the alignment of the stars and thinks if the stars don't align it will affect the price of his stocks

[minerpumpkin]

Good. Capitulation. I think if Bitcoin goes that low, it may ultimately have failed. We're now over a year above $100 and buying at that price will appear to be very very tempting for most people and quite a lot will be willing to buy on the off chance that Bitcoin recovers afterwards!

[ensurance982]

Nah, much too pessimistic. Maybe falllling is going to fall for that (haha, pun intended!) but $100 is much too low nowadays. There are too many bid walls to be filled in order to get there. Speculators are willing to buy a lot of those cheap coins before we reach those levels!

[maker88]

so that stop loss at 488 get triggered newbie? or you close before that big buy this morning?

[Tzupy]

On tradingview an analysis more bearish than mine (I recently said 250$ - 300$ bottom):
https://www.tradingview.com/v/HSiAMq3J/

[Beliathon]

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

Exceptionally intelligent folks are also better at pattern recognition than the rest of the population, which is why they tend to spot trends early, long before the rest of the herd catches on.

[zadiume]

This is delusional as hell, big wallets will get in if we see these prices, before.