ok, but how often do normal small miners find blocks themselves solo mining? If i ask you, going through the blocks, can you tell me the last time a solo small miner found a block?
To take a quote from Hillary, "What does it matter?"
Each miner can easily calculate their chances by dividing their hash by the network guess of about 200PH, and multiplying by 140.
There is no way to confirm it but statisically barring some sort of trickery the distribution should be based on how much of the network is owned by small miners. If every home miner combined makes less than 1/5 of the network, the less than 1/5 of all solves go to small miners.
Bitfury, KNC, AM and Bitmain combined are over 50% of the network.