Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th

[philipma1957]

http://bitcoincharts.com/


Difficulty   29829733124
Estimated   29899735872 in 2013 blks

a .23% jump



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   29,829,733,124
Estimated Next Difficulty:   32,687,713,301 (+9.58%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 13.8 days

I start a new one every time there is a new diff jump.

I find these two tend to meet in the middle so 0.23 - 9.58  would be about  4.905 percent.


the last thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765956.0

  bitcoincharts = .0007 percent

btcwisdom = 14.78  percent

middle = 7.43 percent  I said under 7 percent   real number was 8.75 percent.

It should interesting to see if the under closer to the middle trend continues.

[fairlay]

thanks for the thread.

Lets through in some more number:

Bitcoinwisdom:
32,708,058,763 (+9.65%)

https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php
47,080,267,790

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php
+9.79%

http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
43,849,707,692

This huge numbers are calculated on a very little time frame - I would not trust them - however, it is always interesting see them converging against the real one.

As always: we have opened predictions on the next dif.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/


here you can see how it turns our last time: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

[philipma1957]

thanks for the thread.

Lets through in some more number:

Bitcoinwisdom:
32,708,058,763 (+9.65%)

https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php
47,080,267,790

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php
+9.79%

http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
43,849,707,692

This huge numbers are calculated on a very little time frame - I would not trust them - however, it is always interesting see them converging against the real one.

As always: we have opened predictions on the next dif.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/


here you can see how it turns our last time: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

  Yeah  I think I will do a new one every diff jump.  You can always put in info since you can serve as a hedge for some miners if they have an understanding of what you offer and how to use it.


To anyone new to mining. Diff jumps are part of the game . They affect your mining gears power to pull in coins.

Mining has had 

The Cpu stage  slow miners lowest diff
The Gpu stage faster miners higher diif
The Fpga stage faster miners higher diff

The Asic stage the fastest miners with the highest diff ever. Many of us feel this asic stage is maturing and power savings is not getting much better thus diff jumps are slowing to a 7-9% average.

Others think the above is true but monster data centers will grow ones with very low power costs  this will continue to grow the network at higher rates  maybe 11-15% or more.

Time will tell so follow these threads and learn to form your own opinions on net work's growth rate.

Bottom line is we guess at it and those that guess a little better will profit more.

I am still in the 7% to 9% camp for diff growth.

Now for btc price vs the usd that is another thread.

[Wexlike]

I was surprised that the last rise was only 8.75%. Looks like a big farm was waiting for a low diff entry point.

hash rised a lot around the last adjustment https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[skuser]

if you still have not enough:
http://nextdifficulty.com/
 

[philipma1957]

I was surprised that the last rise was only 8.75%. Looks like a big farm was waiting for a low diff entry point.

hash rised a lot around the last adjustment https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I think the diff jumps no longer reflect the reality of mining .

Some companies are building pure data center machines.  They can put gear online when they want.  Lets pick a player like asicminer. They sell the tube  an 850gh miner.  

If you buy a 10 pack  which is 8.5th  they assemble it  and ship it anywhere in the world for 7.9 btc > this means the following  well under 1 btc a th  maybe the build cost for them is as low as .2btc a th   so for 1000x or 200btc   they can build a 1 ph asic machine.  add another 50btc and for 250 btc they have 1ph  most likely I am wrong it is cheaper then that.  well 250 btc =  about 120,000 usd .

  at 10% diff and 6 cents for power that 120,000 turns into  a profit on day 21.   so more more more more some would say.

 I say no the top 5 builders can all do close to this  it is in their best interest to keep growth under 10%  

 even if it cost them 250,000 usd to setup a 1ph farm

  diff jumps at 10%
power is 8 cents a kwatt
 they burn at 1 watt a gh

 at todays numbers of 480 a btc


 that 250,000 usd turns into plus 1614 in 53 days on day 100 they are plus

127000usd .  it is truly in their power and interests to limit growth to under 10%.

Now 10% of the current network is  around 25ph  so the top companies  need to limit their production to 20ph and let the tiny companies eat up the other 5ph.

Of that 20ph  they can sell 5ph to regular miners and run 15ph more each diff jump  for their data centers .

 It is pretty much a winning formula for them.  So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and  do controlled growth.

[fairlay]

By the way: earlier in one of this threads someone ask for feedback of those who already have done a difficulty prediction on: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/

We think the best "feedback" are verifiable transactions on the blockchain. Have a look at:
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1CYsmywVd6NpxBrJZG13uZioXVG1s1gsn7/

[BTCish]

thanks for the thread man, realy useful, what is your typical mistake% ?

[vortexz]

bitcoinwisdom is always best !

[BTCish]

bitcoinwisdom is always best !

i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too.

[philipma1957]

bitcoinwisdom is always best !

bitcoinwisdom has huge amounts of info.  charts even ltc info.

Their prediction model factors in past preformance and current preformance.  Since asics made diff grow like mad from July of 2013 up to June of  2014  their current model always is a bit high each beginning of diff jump.

Bitcoincharts model is all now no past data. Blending the two   has really worked well the last 3-4 months.  

 As always long term 6 month predictions are very hard to figure.  I spent a lot of time with some simple models and ideas of what was to come in the future and since July of this year I am in the camp of the next 200 will see us under 10% maybe 7-9% .  It may end up to be completely wrong but I am sticking with it for now.


from june 29 to sept 13th we jumped 77.36%  that has been about 9.97% average.  So we are just under 10 % for the last 77days

[4onesea]

bitcoinwisdom is always best !

i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too.

Probably it's the best at the moment but there are some new great websites popping out every month.

[philipma1957]

bitcoinwisdom is always best !

i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too.

Probably it's the best at the moment but there are some new great websites popping out every month.

yes there are at least 7 decent sites that I know of.

[Wexlike]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

+15% ! 

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

+15% ! 

yeah sucks.  rather big jump .

[SMB-2525]

It is pretty much a winning formula for them.  So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and  do controlled growth.

Tragedy of the commons. They are NOT cooperating.

[gallery2000]

difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month.  Let hold arms and die

[philipma1957]

It is pretty much a winning formula for them.  So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and  do controlled growth.

Tragedy of the commons. They are NOT cooperating.

 yeah lets  just sit back and watch the show.

[xstr8guy]

difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month.  Let hold arms and die

25% difficulty jumps per month?!

BTC difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, not once a month. On average, there are approximately 3 difficulty adjustments per month. This next difficulty adjustment is about 12 days in length and already an 18% rise is predicted.

25% per month would be a blessing at this point!

[philipma1957]

difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month.  Let hold arms and die

25% difficulty jumps per month?!

BTC difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, not once a month. On average, there are approximately 3 difficulty adjustments per month. This next difficulty adjustment is about 12 days in length and already an 18% rise is predicted.

25% per month would be a blessing at this point!

  well looks like a mad rush off the cliff.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   29,829,733,124
Estimated Next Difficulty:   35,298,583,758 (+18.33%)
Adjust time:   After 864 Blocks, About 5.0 days
Hashrate(?):   258,785,313 GH/s


even below is over 10 percent

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   29829733124
Estimated   32993316253 in 863 blks

so we are at 10% - 18.33% as of now