I think the diff jumps no longer reflect the reality of mining .
Some companies are building pure data center machines. They can put gear online when they want. Lets pick a player like asicminer. They sell the tube an 850gh miner.
If you buy a 10 pack which is 8.5th they assemble it and ship it anywhere in the world for 7.9 btc > this means the following well under 1 btc a th maybe the build cost for them is as low as .2btc a th so for 1000x or 200btc they can build a 1 ph asic machine. add another 50btc and for 250 btc they have 1ph most likely I am wrong it is cheaper then that. well 250 btc = about 120,000 usd .
at 10% diff and 6 cents for power that 120,000 turns into a profit on day 21. so more more more more some would say.
I say no the top 5 builders can all do close to this it is in their best interest to keep growth under 10%
even if it cost them 250,000 usd to setup a 1ph farm
diff jumps at 10%
power is 8 cents a kwatt
they burn at 1 watt a gh
at todays numbers of 480 a btc
that 250,000 usd turns into plus 1614 in 53 days on day 100 they are plus
127000usd . it is truly in their power and interests to limit growth to under 10%.
Now 10% of the current network is around 25ph so the top companies need to limit their production to 20ph and let the tiny companies eat up the other 5ph.
Of that 20ph they can sell 5ph to regular miners and run 15ph more each diff jump for their data centers .
It is pretty much a winning formula for them. So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and do controlled growth.
