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Author Topic: Value Betting  (Read 749 times)
BitCoinPokerBro
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September 17, 2014, 01:03:12 AM
 #1

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets
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September 17, 2014, 01:46:13 AM
 #2

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets

I would need more information.

What is the bet being offered, and what does "5.1" mean?

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September 17, 2014, 02:23:06 AM
 #3

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets
If you are saying that you will win a bet 1/3 of the time, then you would make all bets at 3.0 (+200) or better.

BitCoinPokerBro
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September 18, 2014, 10:36:09 PM
 #4

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets

I would need more information.

What is the bet being offered, and what does "5.1" mean?

The bet is team x and y to tie.

Odds of 5.1 means a bet will return 5.1 multiplied by the original stake for a total profit of 4.1.

1 unit x 5.1 = 5.1 - 1 = 4.1

In this case the value is +1.1 since team x has an average tie for this season of 1 in 3 games.

Think of the "value" in value betting as a hypothesis based on historical data.
BitCoinPokerBro
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September 18, 2014, 10:41:14 PM
 #5

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets
If you are saying that you will win a bet 1/3 of the time, then you would make all bets at 3.0 (+200) or better.

Yes exactly. However, value bets are calculated based on historical performance of one or multiple teams. We are not working with fixed odds (such as dice or RNG roulette).
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