Aren't Satoshi's coins a liability?

[BittBurger]

How can Bitcoin ever become a successful global currency when a single entity is in possession of 5-10% of what will ever be in circulation?! If he decides to sell at any point, huge inflation is guaranteed.
I know it's likely that he'll never sell the coins for the sake of anonymity and personal safety, or for the sake of the system. Possible he has even destroyed the private keys. But it doesn't seem certain enough that we can make that assumption.

I'm a little surprised that this hasn't been more widely discussed - so am I missing something?

I have always viewed Satoshi holding such a large batch of funds, so that one day, if Bitcoin encounters a catastrophic event, those coins could be used to kickstart the economy again.  And I have a gut feeling that this is what Satoshi was thinking when he retained a chunk of the economy for safekeeping.   .... "If its needed one day".

-B-

I am not sure how his bitcoin could "kickstart" the bitcoin economy. If something were to hypothetically happen that would cause bitcoin to have little/no value then additional coins in circulation would only make things worse.

I think it would be very possible for satashi to sell his bitcoin in a controlled fashion so that him selling would result in massive price declines. If he were to announce that he will sell no more then 1,800 BTC per day (after the block subsidies half again) then the net effect would be that the same number of coins would be coming onto the market as before the subsidies halved

Knew I should have put some disclaimers so someone wouldn't nitpick lol  I don't know which one, of ten million possible scenarios may play out, but it seems that holding a large batch of a limited economy, would address numerous possible future problems that could come up.  A guy who invents Bitcoin isn't going to do something stupid to damage the economy like selling his coins to crash the price.  

Its far more likely there is an altruistic reason he's holding these coins.   And I am sticking with my theory that its to one day help maintain the system in case of emergency.

-B-

[Melbustus]

I think they're a liability, but a tolerable one, all things considered.

I find it unlikely that they'll ever be spent. It's clear from Satoshi's writings that his motivation was primarily intellectual/political/principled, and further, his decision, from the start, to remain anonymous indicates an understanding that bitcoin shouldn't be about its origin or any individual. Coming back to bitcoin, either by letting his identity be known, or by moving coins, would be damaging to the entire effort (not fatal, but damaging) since it would re-associate bitcoin with him in the present.

I agree with what you said, but I fear the world might disagree at some point and limit the potential of Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency in general though is likely here to stay(Bitcoin included of course!).

Wouldn't it be incredible if one day we saw a transaction moving all those coins to an unspendable output?

[jbreher]

I don't understand all the angst. So if Satoshi liquidates 7% of all bitcoin in a market order. So what? We get a one-day drop in price, and a huge buying opportunity. Within days, Bitcoin is at 90% or better of its t=0- price, and Bitcoin resumes its incessant climb.

Besides, the dollar seems to absorb almost unlimited dumping:



Why would we expect it to be fatal for Bitcoin?

[pbassjunk]

I think they're a liability, but a tolerable one, all things considered.

I find it unlikely that they'll ever be spent. It's clear from Satoshi's writings that his motivation was primarily intellectual/political/principled, and further, his decision, from the start, to remain anonymous indicates an understanding that bitcoin shouldn't be about its origin or any individual. Coming back to bitcoin, either by letting his identity be known, or by moving coins, would be damaging to the entire effort (not fatal, but damaging) since it would re-associate bitcoin with him in the present.

Notch sold Mojang to Microsoft. Everyone has a price.

[cryptworld]

Satoshi is really intelligent
he does not want bitcoin to die
he won't do anything nonsense

[Beliathon]

Notch sold Mojang to Microsoft. Everyone has a price.

Satoshi != a videogame developer.

[franky1]

Also, I didn't mean a couple hundred thousand coins at most. I meant 1,000,000 +- 200,000. But the evidence strongly suggests that my my initial conservative estimate is clearly wrong since a single actor clearly mined 1148800 BTC and it's sitting untouched.

a single actor did not single handedly mine bitcoins. as that means that for 319 days(1148800/3600) only satoshi was mining bitcoins. meaning others only joined in november 2009.

for instance
dont you even know that hal finney was mining from block 70 onwards (in january 2009!!!!), dont you know that sirius was mining before november 2009, do i need to relist the other people that were into bitcoin during 2009-2010.

it does make me chuckle how soo many people read someones opinion of a graph they made, and not actually get a second opinion, deeper analysis of the results, or check other information to see if the information corresponds to the analysis.

 

[HELP.org]

I think it is very likely Satoshi will use the coins at some point.  I don't think he knew it would become this valuable so he is probably deciding what to do.  The system is too fragile to move the coins now so I expect he will wait at least until the next halving if not two. 

[leannemckim46]

I think it is very likely Satoshi will use the coins at some point.  I don't think he knew it would become this valuable so he is probably deciding what to do.  The system is too fragile to move the coins now so I expect he will wait at least until the next halving if not two. 

I would agree that he will likely wait until far in the future to start spending his bitcoin and I think he will likely start to spend some of it until the block reward has just halved. I also think he will give a lot of warning before actually selling the coins on an exchange/at merchants (I think he will likely attempt to move the coins without warning via a mixer in order to keep his anonymity). 

[franky1]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

if satoshi was to use his stash of a few hundred thousand coins. it would NOT be to convert to FIAT. it would be to buy real world things like cars, houses, islands, everything he desires in life USING BITCOIN. not cashing out to fiat first, as that just goes against the whole point of what bitcoin is truly about.

that's like inventing a car, then trading it in for a horse.

this means that satoshi wont be throwing coins onto the exchanges.

i believe he learnt this early on that cashing out goes against his ethos. he also realized that by trading coins for real life tangible products/property (food, houses, etc) people he is trading with would follow the taint and his anonymity would be ruined.

so those couple hundred thousand coins in his 2009 wallet. will remain locked. and since he disappeared in late 2010, he THEN began mining fresh coins pretending to be a normal average joe person under a different username

[jabo38]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

if satoshi was to use his stash of a few hundred thousand coins. it would NOT be to convert to FIAT. it would be to buy real world things like cars, houses, islands, everything he desires in life USING BITCOIN. not cashing out to fiat first, as that just goes against the whole point of what bitcoin is truly about.

that's like inventing a car, then trading it in for a horse.

this means that satoshi wont be throwing coins onto the exchanges.

i believe he learnt this early on that cashing out goes against his ethos. he also realized that by trading coins for real life tangible products/property (food, houses, etc) people he is trading with would follow the taint and his anonymity would be ruined.

so those couple hundred thousand coins in his 2009 wallet. will remain locked. and since he disappeared in late 2010, he THEN began mining fresh coins pretending to be a normal average joe person under a different username

I do consider the coins a liability, just because of the fact they might not always remain in the hands of Satoshi. 

Other than that, I think that Franky1 has thought out the most likely and most reasonable path.  I would like to add though, I doubt he really ever left the scene.  I think he just stopped mining under the Satoshi name and was mining under a new name back in 2010, one that we might very well recognize.  And he can now spend coins as that persona and has more than enough that the Satoshi coins need not be touched. 

[HELP.org]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

No, I don't realize why he invented Bitcoin and neither do you.  I suspect he had no idea it would become this valuable and to talk like he had everything planned out from the start seems pretty unlikely to me.  Bitcoin is not a religion that was planned out by the messiah, it was some computer science people who put together a concept.  I know, I know, he put some message in the Genesis Block and that proves it was some kind of long complicated theory to replace the entire world financial system.

[dankkk]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

No, I don't realize why he invented Bitcoin and neither do you.  I suspect he had no idea it would become this valuable and to talk like he had everything planned out from the start seems pretty unlikely to me.  Bitcoin is not a religion that was planned out by the messiah, it was some computer science people who put together a concept.  I know, I know, he put some message in the Genesis Block and that proves it was some kind of long complicated theory to replace the entire world financial system.

There are several people on this forum (franky being one of them) that seem to treat bitcoin as a religion and satashi as a messiah (many of them crazy). I would speculate that this was at least part of the reason why satashi "left".

I also agree that satashi likely did not know that bitcoin would become as successful as it has become to date. I know that he had said that bitcoin will either have a lot of transactions in 20 year or very few, but he likely did not imaging it having this large of a market cap

[cameltoe]

What if satoshi is the antichrist......!!!

[redsn0w]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

No, I don't realize why he invented Bitcoin and neither do you.  I suspect he had no idea it would become this valuable and to talk like he had everything planned out from the start seems pretty unlikely to me.  Bitcoin is not a religion that was planned out by the messiah, it was some computer science people who put together a concept.  I know, I know, he put some message in the Genesis Block and that proves it was some kind of long complicated theory to replace the entire world financial system.

Is this the message?

Code:

��
EThe Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

https://blockchain.info/tx/4a5e1e4baab89f3a32518a88c31bc87f618f76673e2cc77ab2127b7afdeda33b?show_adv=true

[Elwar]

Or he will wait until the price does not matter and spend it.

[Oscilson]

Or he will wait until the price does not matter and spend it.

5% of total supply will definitely affect the price.

[Seldar]

Satoshi didn't move any BTC when it worthed 1000$.
How many people would be able to do nothing with a billion dollar, even not convert 1 million dollar or less?

I think there is nothing to worry about his bitcoins : he would have sold a part of his fortune if he was interested in anything but money.

[HELP.org]

guys.. you do realise why satoshi made bitcoin right?? to get away from FIAT.

No, I don't realize why he invented Bitcoin and neither do you.  I suspect he had no idea it would become this valuable and to talk like he had everything planned out from the start seems pretty unlikely to me.  Bitcoin is not a religion that was planned out by the messiah, it was some computer science people who put together a concept.  I know, I know, he put some message in the Genesis Block and that proves it was some kind of long complicated theory to replace the entire world financial system.

There are several people on this forum (franky being one of them) that seem to treat bitcoin as a religion and satashi as a messiah (many of them crazy). I would speculate that this was at least part of the reason why satashi "left".

I also agree that satashi likely did not know that bitcoin would become as successful as it has become to date. I know that he had said that bitcoin will either have a lot of transactions in 20 year or very few, but he likely did not imaging it having this large of a market cap

Yes, I noticed this after just a few weeks of being involved in Bitcoin.  Especially some of the people associated with the Foundation.  In March of 2013 I complained to them that they chased Satoshi away and I predicted that within 18 months all the current businesses associated with the Foundation (Mt. Gox, Bitinstant, Coinlab etc.) would all be gone.  I wish the current Foundation would just dissolve so some new organization can form which is not saddled with the history of the current Foundation.  Just this week the crazy Roger Ver Bounty hunters vid.  I mean, c'mon.  This is lunatic fringe kind of stuff and it drives people away from Bitcoin.  And Ver says if I don't think his project is good then I don't understand what Bitcoin is.  Sure.  What you have is a bunch of nut cases who attach themselves to Bitcoin and try to say anyone who uses Bitcoin agrees with them.  I am all for limited government and freedom and I work with the NJ Libertarian party on their Open Government project and I have even funded some law suits against local governments.  But some of these Bitcoiners are just from outer space when they start discussing this issue. 

To get an idea of what I am talking about listen to the Let's Talk Bitcoin interview with Preston Byrne who is a very reasonable person compared to Stephanie Murphy who is completely unreasonable and interjects herself into the interview several times spouting complete nonsense and disrupting the interview to the point of making the host angry.
http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/lets-talk-bitcoin-137-eye-of-the-beholder

Also, yes, that message in the Genesis Block merely proves the date the software was released and makes kind of joke.  I have seen people claim that this "proves" all kinds of intent by Satoshi and it obviously does no such thing.  If someone points to that message and claims it proves some kind of intent by Satoshi don't bother to listen to anything else that person has to say because it will be all nonsense.

[franky1]

those thinking that i treat satoshi like a messiah are wrong. the reason i say what i say is that i have read satoshi's posts, IRC logs emails etc. so i understand what he wanted. yet all you can quote is the genesis block, as if thats the only thing he wrote.

it might be worth you researching more to realise that satoshi didnt just think of it as a meaningless experiment, or something he didnt want to succeed. my mindset is in the "satoshi=smart developer" not "satoshi=god". and although i call him a smart developer i know his unix skills lacked a bit. but that didnt stop him having a smart idea.

might be worth some of you reading the research and double checking it. rather than believing the summarized plot lines.