Bitcoin's bubble bursting and some speculators leaving

[mmitech]

Over the time I saw so many people cash out and move on with their lives or just lose interest, I saw many who lost a good amount of money and I saw few who made huge profits.... this forum is losing its traffic and even existing members are contributing less than before or already quit the forum, everything point to this cycle happening again, which imply to Bitcoin's price last year being a real bubble, at least this is how a bubble exactly looks like.

even the Google trend is bearish, the search for Bitcoin is going down to pre-2013 bubble





I don't think Bitcoin is finished but I think we stepped to the mainstream that everyone was asking for, and a 100x a year wont really happen again, so assuming that Bitcoin will not be taken by something better or by a technical issue and assuming that using it will become easier and more secure, there will be a healthy and constant growth in the future (once we reach the bottom which is still far).


right now, everything points that Bitcoin's fundamentals are still working, and the transaction chart points that existing holders started using their bitcoins more than before, one explanation is that there is more and more places to spend your bitcoins at, and the the bearish market makes people want to spend their coins more than hoard them hoping they will be worth more in the short term.

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[blatchcorn]

People sleep when the moon is shinning.  That does not mean going to sleep makes the moon come out.

Price and forum activity have no effect on one another

[MaxDZ8]

I hope your analysis is correct OP and this brings us to a new phase of maturity with less PnD alts and the surviving ones moving to acceptance and usability.

As this cools dows, I think it's obvious BTC will rise again but don't ask me how much or when!

[mmitech]

People sleep when the moon is shinning.  That does not mean going to sleep makes the moon come out.

Price and forum activity have no effect on one another

you missed the whole point.

[EuroTrash]

Agree and interestingly I am also seeing the reddit r/bitcoin subscribers count go down a few times in a matter of minutes before resuming much slower uptrend. Than means people cancelling their subscription.
I think the final capitulation purge is near - and it will bring us back to the 200$. Then it might takes us many months to go from there to ATH.

[medUSA]

... this forum is losing its traffic and even existing members are contributing less than before or already quit the forum, everything point to this cycle happening again, which imply to Bitcoin's price last year being a real bubble, at least this is how a bubble exactly looks like.

I don't think drop in forum activity will inevitably points to a crash. The stagnant price of bitcoin and the lack of exciting news drove members to spend more time on other aspects of their lives away from bitcoin. Some may have joined other Bitcoin forums in their local language.

This price plateau is good for bitcoin. Holders of bitcoin are more willing to spend their coins because their coins are slowly loosing purchasing power. People spending bitcoin is what makes the ecosystem grow.

[piyany]

Bitcoin is good for buying weed anonymously.

And that's all there is.

Nothing has changed since the start of the bubble, no other killer apps.

[fallinglantern]

Bitcoin is good for buying weed anonymously.

And that's all there is.

Nothing has changed since the start of the bubble, no other killer apps.

why are you even bothering to be here and post this then? 

[spiderbrain]

And that's all there is.

It's pretty amazing for moving money internationally in a few minutes.

[piramida]

Bitcoin is good for buying weed anonymously.

And that's all there is.

Nothing has changed since the start of the bubble, no other killer apps.

why are you even bothering to be here and post this then?  

I guess it's clear that he's into buying weed anonymously. Too bad he can't see beyond that.

[spiderbrain]

I guess it's clear that he's into buying weed anonymously.

Ironically it's not so anonymous now that he's told everyone on the internet that he likes doing it

[njcarlos]

Except, he didn't.

[spiderbrain]

Except, he didn't.

Not quite!

[pand70]

What is the purpose of those graphs? To make the post more unreadable that it already is?  

[realbtcdealers4real]

You need to ask yourself: What does the average joe need BTC for? How could he benefit from it in this point in time, beyond requiring a huge bet in the price skyrocketing in the next decades?

[notme]

You need to ask yourself: What does the average joe need BTC for? How could he benefit from it in this point in time, beyond requiring a huge bet in the price skyrocketing in the next decades?

Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card.  The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones.  Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%.  Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants.  It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets.

[Dalmar]

Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card.  The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones.  Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%.  Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants.  It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets.

Many developing countries have relatively cheap domestic payment systems like Mpesa in East Africa or Alipay in China. I don't see bitcoin forming a threat to those systems. Fees are nowhere near 20% and you don't have to worry about the insane bitcoin volatility.

[notme]

Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card.  The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones.  Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%.  Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants.  It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets.

Many developing countries have relatively cheap domestic payment systems like Mpesa in East Africa or Alipay in China. I don't see bitcoin forming a threat to those systems. Fees are nowhere near 20% and you don't have to worry about the insane bitcoin volatility.

Nowhere near 20% huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statistics

The transaction charges range is from 66% down to 0.16% depending who is involved and the amount of money:

up to 66% for a transfer to an unregistered user
up to 30% for a transfer to a registered user
the lowest transfer rate is 0.16% to a registered user for KSH 70'000 (800 USD, 580 EUR)
the cost for withdrawing money from an M-Pesa agent reach from 20% max to min 0.47%

[Dalmar]

Nowhere near 20% huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statistics

The transaction charges range is from 66% down to 0.16% depending who is involved and the amount of money:

up to 66% for a transfer to an unregistered user
up to 30% for a transfer to a registered user
the lowest transfer rate is 0.16% to a registered user for KSH 70'000 (800 USD, 580 EUR)
the cost for withdrawing money from an M-Pesa agent reach from 20% max to min 0.47%

Look at the lower rates (0.16%) - between registered users. That is what most people pay. Pretty cheap compared to the volatility risk of BTC + exchange commisions.

[JimboToronto]

Over the time I saw so many people cash out and move on with their lives or just lose interest, I saw many who lost a good amount of money and I saw few who made huge profits.... this forum is losing its traffic and even existing members are contributing less than before or already quit the forum, everything point to this cycle happening again, which imply to Bitcoin's price last year being a real bubble, at least this is how a bubble exactly looks like.

even the Google trend is bearish, the search for Bitcoin is going down to pre-2013 bubble

Pre-2013 bubble? Which one? The January-April bubble or the October-December bubble?

What about the Great Bubble of 2011?

In my opinion, what is happening now is not all that different from what occurred in late 2011 or June 2013. A few had made a lot, a lot had lost a bunch, and public interest had dropped off. Many pessimists and trolls brayed about the end of Bitcoin.

The protocol is still strong. Venture capital still pours in. The infrastructure continues to grow. Only a minority of the general public even knows that Bitcoin exists, let alone participates.

Bitcoin is still young. We must all be patient.

jmho