Adam's BitMovements

[adamstgBit]

Traders Paradise

I underestimated the power behind the last rally, what i thought was the top turned out to be the bottom (300).  I envisioned the market taking a breath before busting above 300, but the FBI auction was only days away, market was bullish and pumpers were pumping! at about 390 I was thinking "wtf is going on?" price was really going parabolic, and so i started selling, then i found out the FBI auction was tomorrow and it all made sense, I sold more. I did pretty good! hope you did too. As i said in the "Bulls on the run" update, trading based on resistance / support lines isn't nearly as good as buy the rumor sell the news type of strategy. rumor has it the bear market is history and the bull market is in full swing.  

Look at that, what a year! 300 has been strong resistance ever since the final capitulation to ~155 in Jan. now we have broken through and on high volume, record breaking volume. volume had been picking up for a few months before this breakout which i think gives validity to this move, i poked around and looked at volume on other exchanges (virtex kraken okcoin..) all of them paint a similar story in terms of volume. and the the number of TX happening on the block chain is also clearly growing ( they would be growing exponentially if it wasn't for the 1MB block limit, IMO) there can be no doubt bitcoin is doing well, of course we get Mr Manipulator taking advantage of this fact and pushing price to 500$!!! which is unsettling for some, but hey this is bitcoin, if you can't stand a free market going bananas in a state of growth, GTFO now.

I maintain my earlier speculation that trading above 300 will be relatively easy, My forecast calls for more volatile, a wider spread, and tones of confusion. I think the trading range is pretty clearly spelled out, 300 is bottom 500 is top. i see this thing bouncing around like a cheep hooker on ecstasy so all you'd have to do is be true to your trade ( whether it be buying at 390 or selling at 350+ ) and you will eventually be in profit.

Adam's prediction: >420 soon
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 310

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[adamstgBit]

Extreme Volatility Ahead

Cup and handle?
<300 is not exactly likely, but i do see some dumps going on right now, and ya it could go Deep, who knows.. if we do get to see 28X, it will be on High volume! climbing to 500 in a cup and handle seems likely, time frame is all wrong on the graph i drew.

Adam's prediction: <333  >500 shortly after
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 323.1 - 282.9

[adamstgBit]

Adjusting the Trajectory to the Moon! ┗(°0°)┛

┗(°0°)┛
Adam's prediction: <395  >500 in 2016
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 360 - 400

[adamstgBit]

Adjusting the Trajectory to the Moon! ┗(°0°)┛

i have to agree with Mat, this is a rather obvious sell signal, i think the only question is how low will it go, and how long it will stay low.
I'm thinking 390-360 is a buy and > 400 is a sell, for now anyway...
I wouldn't be surprised to see 333$ again, my lines say 333$ is the floor of this bull trend, but i won't hold my breath waiting to hit the floor. ( i fully expect the trend to hold )

i'll also point out a bearish pattern in the short term.

my guess is we're ready for another drop right about now.


and here is how i come to 333$ for my floor.

Adam's prediction: <390  >500 shortly after
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 384.99

[adamstgBit]

Trajectory to the Moon has been Adjusted! ┗(°0°)┛

rumor has it core is on the verge of a break though for bitcoin scalability it's called Segregated Witness or segwit for short. if you don't know what to do i can't help you. no wait i can, buy! 


Adam's prediction: <410  >500 shortly after
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 409

[adamstgBit]

The FUD Storm's last gasp

scalability has been addressed as far as i'm concerned. segwit + 10MB limit will mean very high capacity. not sure what all the fuss is about with bitcoin classic and now the new "more sensible" BIP for 2MB blocks. sure 2MB are more sensible but not necessary with segwit. I'm all for 2MB but would rather see segwit and 6 months later when bitcoin TX vol has once again doubled increase the block size + implement more "segwit" like thingys, everything going to work out... fact everyone is getting ready for a fork means low prices.


Adam's prediction: <360 never again
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 367

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin Core and Classic

the chart is fairly self explanatory... As for all the  Core vs Classic talk, my best guess is Core and Classic will always adhere to the same protocol, But the protocol will change... segwit, 2MB etc. these will all be coded in sooner or later, and when they are Core, Classic, and XYZ Bitcoin implementation will adhere to the new protocol.


Adam's prediction: >= 440 in < 2weeks
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 380

[adamstgBit]

The dust is settling, and we are moving up Up UP!!!

not sure peeps are ready for what's coming.

Adam's prediction: >= 440 in < 2weeks
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 399

[adamstgBit]

Buy Or Die

This weekend we witnessed a very important event, "The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus". It was an intense meeting where the best and the brightest bashed heads for no less than 18 hours! Finally an agreement was reached. For anyone questioning whether or not this agreement will "stick" consider this, 80% hashing power, devs, and exchanges CEO were present and in full agreement, undoubtedly everyone of them is unhappy with the agreement for one reason or another, but that just means we found a happy middle ground. The market reacted very well to the news, and we are seeing very strong support at this new 440$ level. I firmly believe this news will catapult bitcoin to 750. For over a year now, the blocksize debate has been attributed to many market crashes, poeple have been busy pricing in some serious doom and gloom, but it turns out they were wrong, bitcoin will scale, it may not be graceful, but it will happen, so now the price is all out of whack! a correction is underway, i'm thinking >460 by tomorrow morning, and we will keep pushing new highs day in day out for weeks if not months.


Adam's prediction: >= 750 in < 2 months
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 420 ( i wouldn't count on it, already an attempt at correcting the markets enthusiasm has failed. )

[adamstgBit]

Buy or Die Take 2

a few weeks ago there was the "The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus", right after this i wrote the update above. well bitcoin didn't skyrocket to that 750 target i had... unfortunately the poeple seem to have little faith in "Consensus" reached at the round table, Core's roadmap does promise segwit and then 2MB HF later ( IF there is "widespread Consensus" ), but poeple aren't still convinced this is the best way forward. 2MB is popular, of course there are still many that loves cores vision of scaling bitcoin with a second layer solution but as far as popular opinion, main chain scaling is what "the poeple" want, And Core is playing a very dangerous game, they are going against popular opinion. They have a different vision than most when it comes to scaling bitcoin, and they are sticking to it. how exactly this is all going to play out is anyone's guess, and fuck i'm done trying to guess this, frankly i dont give a crap. My idea is that one way or another bitcoin will be made to scale, hopefully core can deliver segwit on time and this will allow the market to breath a sigh of relief ( breaking 500 ).  I'm currently buying the FUD about bitcoin being slow broken, unable to scale, i'm buying into this FUD because I thinking it is unjustified...

Despite the lack of resolution from "The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus" ( if anything it seemed to have added fuel to the fire ) the graph still looks good doesn't it... this is the bullmarket effect, FUD can only slow down or temporarily prevent a rise. We are currently at a very important resistance / support line (415-420 ish) and appear to be moving above it. I do not believe the market will wait for segwit release to break up higher, this market likes to try and stay one step ahead, so this means we are moving up and we are doing it now.


Adam's prediction: >= 750 in < 2 months
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 405

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin is currency!

Bitcoin is currency! and we should tread it as such.
BUT, its a special kinda of currency that is sure to gain more and more value over time. as coins are lost and mining rewards halve whilst the user base grows.

Speculation keeps price in check and always one step ahead. I say buy as much as you can, always be buying and putting up bids, this thing is moving up!

Adam's prediction: next stop >= 750
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 600

[adamstgBit]

Set a collision course with the moon!

I must say i am impressed with how strong bulls appear to be after week after week of price increases. looking at volume and price action, it appears to me as tho bulls are gaining support as prices push higher.

the past couple days of trading have painted what looks like a top. the road from 660 to 720 was Very choppy/volatile, and then the market when on a bit of a down ward spiral, when I saw that first hourly candle close below 680, i though, this is it, 720 was the top. But surprisingly initial resistance at 660 held, and price really snapped back hard! now i'm not so sure "720 was the top"...

I think most of the bears and weak hands have been bought out or liquidated by now, and what we are left with is a market where mostly everyone believes 32,000$ is achievable in a few years time. bacily none of these poeple wont sell a damn coin unless we see a 20% price incress in a couple days, and the only reason they are selling is because they are confident they can buy back a few % lower. and so we get these crazy swigns from hell at ATH price levels and still come out looking strong and moving higher.

the big bad bears willing to leverage their house, and bet that bitcoin would eventually die out, are dead, and with them cheap coins are dead.

we might see some nice swings up and down from here, but I am warning you now, bitcoin WILL NOT crash, bitcoin WILL NOT pull back, bitcoin WILL leave you behind, bitcoin WILL Hit 32,000$!  We have set a collision course with the moon, there is no going back, we will continue on upward month after month, year after year, until we hit the fucking MOON head on, full force, Ka-fucking-BOOM!

Adam's prediction: next stop >= 800
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 640

[adamstgBit]

Economic power is measured in dollars today.
but tomorrow.

is it really all that unlikely that bitcoin IS the currency of the future? meaning one day, every single thing on earth (and mars?) will be priced in BTC.
how unlikely?
not really if you ask me, simply because bitcoin has the longest oldest blockchain.
ETH is fine LTC BOOB TITS wtv these are cool coins, but they dont make a good currency.
simply because it not the longest oldest blockchain....
bitcoin is without a doubt the is future of money...
I want it to be you want it to be we ALL want bitcoin to BE the future of money.
only a hardfork of bitcoin could potentially divides us!
we are united in our common interst

The decentralization of world domination!

bitcoin.

[adamstgBit]

Pull back from 760

after many good weeks for bitcoin, we now get a decent pull back.
I suspect we will bust though the ceiling soon or later.
for now i see some fairly volatile range trading anywhere from 580-800
635 is good price, but i'm going to set my cheap coin target deep.

Adam's prediction: range trading, THEN next stop >= 800...
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 599.95

[adamstgBit]

New All Time Recent Low of 555

very nice correction I had sold a couple coins and bought them back, I think i made 9% after fees,  really too bad i only played with a couple coins.
right now for now we appear to be heading to set a higher low, but a break out to 666 and beyond is inevitable 
I'm tempted to convert a few more dollars back into BTC, if price dips again i'll no doubt buy again.

This time next year, Bitcoin will have grown a lot, the blockchain will be made to scale. not only will we get roughly double the on-chain capacity, and later maybe double it again with a 2MB HF but more importantly the second layer will begin to be adopted, I think at first the second layer will be used by poeple like bitpay, coinbase, bitfinex, etc. and the number of on-chain TX might actually drop, due to some of traffic now taking place on the second layer... the scaling issue may not be completely solved, but this will be big step forward.

thats the rumor 

Adam's prediction: range trading, THEN next stop >= 800...
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 599.95

[adamstgBit]

Post Halving, The Road Forward

Today is 7/9/2016 the day the minning rewards were cut in half for a total of 12.5BTC per block. Roughly 4 years from now we will halve minning rewards Again, and again, and again, and again till the end of time.

Looking at the chart I conclude that this halving has been priced in and priced out. traders that bought bitcoin before halving simply to sell higher, have bought and sold ( or are in the process of collecting profits now...)  already.

So now that all the speculation surrounding halving is over, ( one last leg down? maybe... ) now we can look forward to the real effects of the halving on the market, which are subtle but long lasting. newly minted coins being sold on the market account for a small % of daily volume on the BTC markets, even if every single coin mined was sold right away, this would still only represent a small % of daily volume.
so i dont expect a huge effect on the market, but i do expect slightly less selling pressure, from this point on. and we are in a bull market so that slight decrease in selling pressure might be the little push we need to build more momentum, and make the beginnings of a bubble.


Adam's prediction: one last leg down? maybe... but then back Up!
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 599.95

[adamstgBit]

Cheap Coin Target: 630$

i'm moving my cheap coin target up, i was expecting another leg down post halving but the clock is ticking and we aren't dropping... its starting to look more likely that 599$ will not be reached, 630$ is a more attainable target.

if we aren't to paint a big fat red candle down, then i suspected we'll drift upward into 700's sooner then you might expect.

as i was typing this out we see a spike above 666, lol
...
Cheap Coin Target 649.99$

[adamstgBit]

A Forking Fun Week Coming

last week we saw ETH fork into two coins ETH/ETC. read all about it. We watched as the story unfolded and are assumptions were put to the test. I use to think a minority will yield to the majority, and a weak fork is likely to die quite fast, the longest strongest blockchain will be viewed as the only "valid chain". but after watching ETC get accepted with seemly no hostility these assumptions appear to have been proven wrong. maybe a minority stands to lose nothing by forking off because they hold coins on both chains. and clearly even a very weak fork can still command a market price and bubble from 0.00012 to 0.005!

even with that said, I still do not think a fork (one which would potentially capture>1% of the market cap) is at all likely for bitcoin.
ETH altered their blockchain!!! ...no wonder there are some choosing to fork off...
for bitcoin its different, the core dev team's scaling solution is good, I personally would of liked to simply bump block limit NOW and have segwit later, but core does plan to allow for the possibility of a block limit incress in the future, and in reality segwit + 2MB later, or the other way around makes little difference, its definitely no reason to fork off. If you know me you know i am a Big Blocker all the way, but I have no real interest in forking off, if BU would fork, i might hodl my "duplicated coins" but i won't go actively buying  this one and selling the other, that would just be crazy.

so what do we have here, the forking FUD is over, and ETC's big splash has brought a lot of excitement and discussion about blockchain's and crypto. call me crazy, I think the  ETH/ETC 'cluster fuck' some might call it, is bullish for bitcoin. ETH didnt fork for fun there is a fundamental flaw in that "currency" and that is, "too much can go wrong ", and they didnt fix that flaw, or anything else, they simply altered the blockchain to pretend nothing happened.... its a toy! when poeple are done playing around with ETH/ETC they'll come to realize there's only one GOOD place to hold value.

Adam's prediction: >690 in <1 week
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 649.99

[adamstgBit]

Cheap Coin Target: 599$

I had moved my cheep coin target up when i thought that it was simply taking to long for the second leg down to come, and then it seemed as tho the triangle would break up and i got excited, but it seems i needed a lesson in patiences...
however, I am not confident that we will actually reach 599$, i see no good reason to be bearish at this time other then charts are looking to the downside. to me this is a buying opportunity and we have leveraged traders to thank for it. Obviously i am biased because i'm actively buying into this, but, i think once the selling stops it'll snap right back up to 666, and then rally into 700's. my >690 in <1 week, has been set back a few days thats all. the way i see it, any minute now some news about some central bank somewhere devaluing or somthing is going to push bitcoin into the 700's never to return. and I still expect the altcoin mania to die down and people to realize that ya sure ETC or STEEM are fun neat little projects, but its not a place to hodl value, IMO alts get most of there value from their novelty which changes when the next cool new crypto is presented.

Adam's prediction: >690 in <2 week
Adam's Cheap Coins Target:  599$

[adamstgBit]

599 Is Still Cheap!

July 31, 2016, 22:44 UTC
I am slightly puzzled as to why market didnt break up but chose to break down, I write an update moving my cheap coin target down to 599 and remind you that there's no reason to be bearish, everything is awesome. Hours later market continues its descent towards 599 ... I figure a bear whale is shorting like there's no tomorrow and for no good reason at all. I start buying. Lower still?!  I buy More! cheap coin target reached?! I grab more... then place orders down lower and go to sleep.

August 2st, 2016, 12:00 UTC
I wake up to fine price hovering right above 600, I'm glad my cheap coin target appears to be holding, I think to myself " that was a fucking good call " I get to working, unknown to me, unknown to bitfinex, unknown to everyone, a hacker has already emptied 119K BTC from bitfinex customer wallets .

August 2st, 2016, 18:00 UTC
bitfinex halts trading and announces they have been hacked, it sounds bad but we are not told exactly how much was stolen. But, I'm still working, an hour later I finally realize what's happen ( after refreshing the bitfinex chart and seeing 604 everytime, I looked at bitstamps chart and was like   ). Bombs are dropping left and right and i'm like:

I Want to Live!

quickly now!  log in.  panic panic panic!, BOOM LIMIT ORDER,  BOOM MARKET SELL,  calculate CAD/USD/BTC price, oh what a waste of time the market is fucking melting, SELL SELL SELL!!!!!
ok sold, now i wait for a lower price to buy back in.
aaaannddd that didnt take long, within 30mins i am in profit, BOOM LIMIT ORDER, my hands are shaking,  market is still dropping, my heart is pounding, but i'm still trading! its like: BOOM HEADSHOT!  i mean BOOM MARKET ORDER. BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!
what a fucking crazy day...

anyway, its still unclear what happens next for bitfinex and their customers. This hack is ~1/5^th the size of the mtgox fiasco, so it won't hurt as much but I can't help but lean to the bearish side. here are the key numbers as I perceive them to be

Resistance: 599$
First Support: 540$
Strong Support: 420$
also you want to be looking at itBit charts its leading right now.

right now market looks like its headed straight for 599 as if its on some kind of vendetta, who knows it might actually pop over 600 pretty soon... but I wouldn't be buying +600$ coins right now, there is simply to much FUD in the air. Coinbase  was hacked for some of there ETH, there's a group of poeple coming together with the aim of Hard Forking bitcoin they call themselfs BTCFork on reddit ( they will fail, i talked with some of them, they are nuts, they will change the POW algo.... they will fail MISERABLY, ETC was successful because it didnt fork/change anything, that BTCFork group wants to change everything, its a bad idea, they will fail to gain the smallest amount of support... )  and now the bitfinex on-going FUD storm.... can't lie, i'm kinda bearish for the short term. I think we will go test 480 again maybe hit as low as 420 or maybe not get past 520... its unclear but i foresee very choppy waters ahead.


Adam's prediction: 599 -> 420 -> 540   and   >690 in 4-9 weeks
Adam's Cheap Coins Target:  420$