Trying to predict Bitcoin's price in 2015 through crowd wisdom

[DeadCoin]

So far average is 3500, and median 1200.  

You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120.

$120 seems more ridiculous than the median of $1200 in my neutral opinion. I don't hold large amounts of coin and I don't have huge amount of buy orders or sell orders.

I'm just pointing out that you should caveat what you say...

So you're saying $1200 is more likely than $120? LOL
I'm afraid you've lost touch with reality.

Remember, just 2 weeks ago sub $400 seemed ridiculous... There's a long time to go until March 2015.

[yefi]

I remember there was a question on Who Wants to be a Millionaire asking what the M stood for in R.M.S. The participant asked the audience, and the crowd voted overwhelmingly in favour of Monarch. Crowds can cluster around wrong answers. In Galton's analysis he picked the median for a group that was likely to cluster around the right answer. A farmer's fair is more likely to attract farmers and butchers who would have cause to know the dressed weight of livestock. That his results show the 5th percentile and 95th percentile varied by as little as 20% is a telling sign.

[BootstrapCoinDev]

in the last couple of months BTC are floating between 300 to 500$ and this gap will become thinner and thinner. Now it's like 2011~2012, I think the price will stuck at daily 200 SMA.

[sgbett]

"Must be a number between 0 and 100,000"

Assume your average is low balled...

[bitebits]

Nice initiative, but the question is not specific enough. You ask "What’s your guess for Bitcoin’s price in 2015 ?", but you mean: "What’s your guess for Bitcoin’s price March 21st, 2015"


Now people answer the question for 2015.01.01

[kaykawa]

We currwntly are just seeing a small peak, then it will slowly go back down.
Then we will see a Huge peak months from now.

Imo

[Foxpup]

Let me tell you a story. In a faraway empire, the people wanted to know the length of their great emperor's penis. Now it goes without saying that the emperor doesn't allow anyone to see his penis, so the people collected estimates from everyone in the land and averaged them, thinking that this was provide an accurate measurement. Then one day, the emperor went out on parade in the nude, having been tricked into thinking he was wearing invisible clothes (though that's another story), and everyone realised their estimates were hilariously wrong, though some tried to justify their estimates by claiming the emperor was cold that day.

There are many lessons to be learned from this story.

[watuba]

Let me tell you a story. In a faraway empire, the people wanted to know the length of their great emperor's penis. Now it goes without saying that the emperor doesn't allow anyone to see his penis, so the people collected estimates from everyone in the land and averaged them, thinking that this was provide an accurate measurement. Then one day, the emperor went out on parade in the nude, having been tricked into thinking he was wearing invisible clothes (though that's another story), and everyone realised their estimates were hilariously wrong, though some tried to justify their estimates by claiming the emperor was cold that day.

There are many lessons to be learned from this story.

LOL

[youngmike]

There might be few peaks, maybe as high as 480$ but by the end of the 2015 bitcoin will be less than 100$

[lontivero]

Crowd wisdom is an oxymoron.

Added to my oxymorons list!

[Newbie1022]

So far average is 3500, and median 1200.  

You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120.

$120 seems more ridiculous than the median of $1200 in my neutral opinion. I don't hold large amounts of coin and I don't have huge amount of buy orders or sell orders.

I'm just pointing out that you should caveat what you say...

So you're saying $1200 is more likely than $120? LOL
I'm afraid you've lost touch with reality.

Remember, just 2 weeks ago sub $400 seemed ridiculous... There's a long time to go until March 2015.

$120 is not impossible. If we are talking at the start of the year -- $500 to $600 seems like the high range. I personally think it will dip back down after that and complete a wave lower. On that wave lower, the situation may get out of hand -- I'd hazard to guess that there isn't much of a difference between $250 and $120 because people might panic at that point.

So, basically, we could go anywhere, I figured between $120 and $1,000 in the next year... $400 to $600 seems to be the likely balanced ranges/average, though.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Doesnt it depend on the cross section you interview in the first place? there are some videos on coin telegraph youtube channel where all the bitcoiners in the industry predict price points for certain dates, pretty cool stuff.

Everyone who holds BTC says high anyone without says low or dead make sure you get various sources of traffic imo.

I guess you're right about the amount of "nay sayers" being low in this group. Any way you can post a link to those videos you've talked about ?

sorry for delay in response you can see them videos here:

https://www.youtube.com/user/cointelegraph/videos

Just look at bottom of page they do it every few months

[oblivi]

Crowd wisdom is an oxymoron.

Not really, humans are herd animals at the endo f the day, they go by trends, if Bitcoin becomes a main trend you can predict the outcome.

[wry]

There were a lot of pop ups but I was happy to participate.  I've seen similar claims made in the past, given how often experts are wrong, why not?

[unusualfacts30]

So far average is 3500, and median 1200.  

You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120.

$120 seems more ridiculous than the median of $1200 in my neutral opinion. I don't hold large amounts of coin and I don't have huge amount of buy orders or sell orders.

I'm just pointing out that you should caveat what you say...

So you're saying $1200 is more likely than $120? LOL
I'm afraid you've lost touch with reality.

Remember, just 2 weeks ago sub $400 seemed ridiculous... There's a long time to go until March 2015.

$120 is not impossible. If we are talking at the start of the year -- $500 to $600 seems like the high range. I personally think it will dip back down after that and complete a wave lower. On that wave lower, the situation may get out of hand -- I'd hazard to guess that there isn't much of a difference between $250 and $120 because people might panic at that point.

So, basically, we could go anywhere, I figured between $120 and $1,000 in the next year... $400 to $600 seems to be the likely balanced ranges/average, though.

Can't happen

Won't happen


Too much money is invested in BTC and those people won't let it fall. We're talking about billions of dollars invested just in infrastructure..if it goes below $300 those people are losing money and therefore you can expect it to go back to where it came from....01 cent and no rise after that..only fall but that will never happen. EVER!

[yefi]

Can't happen

Won't happen

That's what Sumner said just before Brooks shoved a cane up his ass.

[unent]

So far average is 3500, and median 1200.  

You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120.

$120 seems more ridiculous than the median of $1200 in my neutral opinion. I don't hold large amounts of coin and I don't have huge amount of buy orders or sell orders.

I'm just pointing out that you should caveat what you say...

So you're saying $1200 is more likely than $120? LOL
I'm afraid you've lost touch with reality.

Remember, just 2 weeks ago sub $400 seemed ridiculous... There's a long time to go until March 2015.

$120 is not impossible. If we are talking at the start of the year -- $500 to $600 seems like the high range. I personally think it will dip back down after that and complete a wave lower. On that wave lower, the situation may get out of hand -- I'd hazard to guess that there isn't much of a difference between $250 and $120 because people might panic at that point.

So, basically, we could go anywhere, I figured between $120 and $1,000 in the next year... $400 to $600 seems to be the likely balanced ranges/average, though.

Can't happen

Won't happen


Too much money is invested in BTC and those people won't let it fall. We're talking about billions of dollars invested just in infrastructure..if it goes below $300 those people are losing money and therefore you can expect it to go back to where it came from....01 cent and no rise after that..only fall but that will never happen. EVER!

I remember someone here using the same argument to claim it could never go below $400. I'm not saying it will go below $300 but i am saying that argument did not keep the price above $400.