Better Bitcoin Value Estimator/Calculator

[Noblezim711]

Hello everyone, I am curious if anyone would be interested in an application that computed the value of Bitcoin. This application will currently only compute to usd values, and relies on historical electrical rate records. The algorithm will also take network hashrate historical data, and use that value in its estimate. The application will not try to compute an exact value, but rather a range of Bitcoins suggested value. This application will use a similar algorithm as this graph shows, but will take transaction volumes(# of transactions, amount per transaction, total bitcoins traded, usd/btc exchange volume, ect) into account. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789594.0 This calculator will also allow the users to manipulate the values such as, coin(BTC, LTC, PPC), network, electrical rates, difficulty, and more. This tool will provide a suggested price range, value may be higher or lower.

Please take the time to submit an answer to my survey, and leave me your ideas.

[zimmah]

Well, it may be somewhat useful, but it should still be used with care.

Obviously no matter how good the algorithm is, it will still sometimes make wrong predictions, so you should never trust any prediction completely. It doesn't matter if it was a man or a machine who made the prediction.

[Noblezim711]

True, this application will be based off of historical data. The range provided does not mean it will be the rate Bitcoin is traded at, this will NOT be a real time value estimator. It will be a historical data interpreter, based off of available past market data. Bitcoin value may rise or fall, based off of many variable factors. The application will only attempt to guess a range for the next day's coin price.

[odolvlobo]

I'm more interested in your methodology and the science behind it (if there is any). Anyone can predict bitcoin prices, but nobody can do it accurately.

[btcbug]

Hello everyone, I am curious if anyone would be interested in an application that computed the value of Bitcoin. This application will currently only compute to usd values, and relies on historical electrical rate records. The algorithm will also take network hashrate historical data, and use that value in its estimate. The application will not try to compute an exact value, but rather a range of Bitcoins suggested value. This application will use a similar algorithm as this graph shows, but will take transaction volumes(# of transactions, amount per transaction, total bitcoins traded, usd/btc exchange volume, ect) into account. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789594.0 This calculator will also allow the users to manipulate the values such as, coin(BTC, LTC, PPC), network, electrical rates, difficulty, and more. This tool will provide a suggested price range, value may be higher or lower.

Please take the time to submit an answer to my survey, and leave me your ideas.

Yours idea sounds a bit different and would be interesting. Have you seen this one though: http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

[Ayers]

I'm more interested in your methodology and the science behind it (if there is any). Anyone can predict bitcoin prices, but nobody can do it accurately.

isn't that impossible? you could be lucky one time, but at the end you will do at least one bad prediction

[zyzzbrah]

Can you post the source code or will it be closed?

[asdlolciterquit]

i don't understand: what do you mean with  Bitcoin Value in this case? the price that should be and not the price it is?

[Noblezim711]

Yes I will publicly post the source code for this project. This is not science, its math! The tool will allow the user to adjust the values of the algorithm, thus adjusting the end estimate up or down. All the suggested values will be derived from historical data, and trade data. The user will be able to adjust the values to reflect possible changes to the value in the future. This tool will also attempt to suggest the price makeup of Bitcoin, and will make suggestions as to where Bitcoin needs to improve in order to maintain a constant price. So for example this tool may predict that Bitcoin needs more merchant adaptation to maintain its value, or that the mining effort has overshot the required network hashrate. Bitcoin value has been inherently difficult to estimate because of the very nature of the system. We have treated Bitcoin like a stock, and traded it at the amount offered. Bitcoin is not a stock plan, Bitcoin is a method of payment. The best way to measure the value of Bitcoin is by incorporating all the available information into the model. Then you may attempt to estimate the actual makeup of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and thereby develop an estimated value.

My best attempt to explain it is this:
If their only existed 100 1 gram gold nuggets, and 1000, 1 gram silver nuggets; than a trade of 1 gold nugget should equal 10 silver right?

[odolvlobo]

My best attempt to explain it is this:
If their only existed 100 1 gram gold nuggets, and 1000, 1 gram silver nuggets; than a trade of 1 gold nugget should equal 10 silver right?

Unfortunately, no. Price depends on supply and demand. The demand curves for gold and silver are not the same, so simply scaling the supply curve by a factor of 10 will give you different results, even assuming the supply curves are also the same.

Just look at the actual numbers for gold and silver. Silver is 17 times more abundant than gold, yet gold is worth about 50 times silver.

[Miracal]

It is useful for the short term speculators who need the technical analysis and predict the future price movement. It is normal that prediction is not always correct. The essential part is more than 51% predictions is correct, then the traders combines with discipline to implement your trading strategy and can profit from it.

[Noblezim711]

My best attempt to explain it is this:
If their only existed 100 1 gram gold nuggets, and 1000, 1 gram silver nuggets; than a trade of 1 gold nugget should equal 10 silver right?

Unfortunately, no. Price depends on supply and demand. The demand curves for gold and silver are not the same, so simply scaling the supply curve by a factor of 10 will give you different results, even assuming the supply curves are also the same.

Just look at the actual numbers for gold and silver. Silver is 17 times more abundant than gold, yet gold is worth about 50 times silver.

You just said the same thing as I did, and I do know that the value of Bitcoin is dependent on many factors. This calculator will take into account as many factors, and variables as possible. This calculator takes into account the many sources of information now currently available, then it inputs the information into a series of algorithms. This calculator will aim to compare the price of buying a Bitcoin at its value against the effort required to manufacture those coins. This will help to balance the Bitcoin economy, as the exchange rate should be more stable. This is just one example of the output; again the program will run multiple algorithms. These algorithms are against current and historical data, then this information will be fed into another plotting algorithm. The plotting program will attempt to estimate the value. Again this is only an estimate, it does not mean that the exchange rate will not rise or fall. There are many factors to take into account when estimating the value Bitcoins. I can guarantee that with as large as the network as grown, the amount of money required to maintain that speed will grow. With the block halving of the network two things will happen: 1. Miners will soon begin to rely more heavily on transaction fees, as the system intended. This will require more users to move their Bitcoins, in order to pay the added cost.(Not likely if I have 1000 BTC that I'm holding onto until the price rises. I mean why should I throw away money right?) or 2. Bitcoin prices will rise to makeup for the larger required cost to maintain the network.

There are many more things that could happen, but those are the most likely in my opinion. Lets face it, people will be turning off their miners. But unless some larger network members go bust, they won't be turning theirs off anytime soon.

[trader001]

My best attempt to explain it is this:
If their only existed 100 1 gram gold nuggets, and 1000, 1 gram silver nuggets; than a trade of 1 gold nugget should equal 10 silver right?

Unfortunately, no. Price depends on supply and demand. The demand curves for gold and silver are not the same, so simply scaling the supply curve by a factor of 10 will give you different results, even assuming the supply curves are also the same.

Just look at the actual numbers for gold and silver. Silver is 17 times more abundant than gold, yet gold is worth about 50 times silver.

While price is depended on supply and demand, value alone is depended on demand alone.

When demand picks up, price will go up and there will be more supply in the market.

[BJay87]

I'm more interested in your methodology and the science behind it (if there is any). Anyone can predict bitcoin prices, but nobody can do it accurately.

So BPI is no use?

[Trolololo]

May be "Matcalfe's Law: Bitcoin price and adoption analysis for the future" at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=655792.0

[hustler100]

I don't believe bitcoin price compared to fiat currency is related to any real world economic factors...
It would be interesting to watch what you will come up with.

[Fabrizio89]

Yes, it would be very interesting. I bet sooner than people expect, algorithms and autonomous traders will begin trading in the market and become increasingly smarter than humans, ultimately replacing them. I'm not talking about HFT, but a first example of AI.