TH1BTC Speculation Thread - Bitfinex Cloud Mining Contract

[lg1500]

Here is my proof, i not lying
bitfinex nick: lg1500

[lg1500]

I'm sorry that you lost money following my advice.   We're in the same boat on this one.  I closed my positions at an even higher price than you (but with less dividends).

I think it is possible that my emails to Bitfinex encouraged them to act sooner and saved other shorters money.

I think it is also possible that Bitfinex will reimburse our losses.  If not, I'm going on a medium sized PR war against them. First up - an article in Coindesk exposing how they caused their users to lose money. Also: a signature campaign.

you can use my case and nick too : lg1500

[nrd525]

Looks like the contract is still over priced.  It is worth around 0.90 BTC, but only if you have 3% difficulty increases, and a 0.4% swap rate.  So it might be worth as little as 0.8 BTC.

The swap rate is impossible to predict at this point.  The whole market is pretty much impossible to predict as well.  They could issue another 100 contracts each 1-3 days until the price reaches the mining value or the 100 contracts might be a one-time deal (and the price might go back up - or the manipulators might be scared off by the official anti-manipulation policy and not increase the price).

[nrd525]

Swaps down to 200.6 TH1. Swap rate is dropping.

[superbit]

So if I borrow TH1 to short it, the day rate that I am paying is the interest rate X the rate I sold the TH1 at?

Anyone have a know exactly what 1 would earn from today until end of contract at current difficulty?

[nrd525]

I think the interest depends on the market price of TH1.  Not sure if that is the bid, ask, or last traded. I could be wrong on this!

Shorting it until the last day - you'll earn the price of the contract (minus dividends and swap costs).

...

Outstanding TH1 swaps down to 140.

50 bids at 0.8255
100 bids at 0.82
100 bids at 0.700

[deebosch]

From what Ive gathered you pay interest every day in the form of TH1. For this you buy small fractions of TH1 every day at current market price.

[superbit]

Hmm, if so the price crashing is a good thing.  I just need to figure out how to calculate if I'm better to close it now or hold it to until it expires.

From what Ive gathered you pay interest every day in the form of TH1. For this you buy small fractions of TH1 every day at current market price.

[deebosch]

As the price will decrease over time so will decrease interest payments.

[nrd525]

Looks like the swap rate is falling.  There are offers at 0.128% for 30 days that aren't taken.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a price spike at some point. Even if it is irrational.

Shorting it really depends on what is happening with mining. We appear to be having the biggest or second biggest slow down of mining growth.  If we'd be seeing 10% increases, shorting it would be a great deal. If we're seeing 2-4% - not such a good deal and risky as the contract can still be manipulated (Ex. a small increase in its price might not be seen as manipulation if it isn't as protracted as the last one).

Number of TH swaps: 121.

[superbit]

Looks like the swap rate is falling.  There are offers at 0.128% for 30 days that aren't taken.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a price spike at some point. Even if it is irrational.

Shorting it really depends on what is happening with mining. We appear to be having the biggest or second biggest slow down of mining growth.  If we'd be seeing 10% increases, shorting it would be a great deal. If we're seeing 2-4% - not such a good deal and risky as the contract can still be manipulated (Ex. a small increase in its price might not be seen as manipulation if it isn't as protracted as the last one).

Number of TH swaps: 121.

What is the expected BTC mined at current rates though?  Link to a good calculator?  I want to figure that out and any increase in difficulty is a bonus.

[odolvlobo]

What is the expected BTC mined at current rates though?  Link to a good calculator?  I want to figure that out and any increase in difficulty is a bonus.

This is approximately how much 1 TH/s will mine by 2014/12/15 13:00:00 assuming different rates of increase (except the next one, which is assumed to be about 1%):

Increase Each Period	Total Mined
-5%	0.87 BTC
0%	0.85 BTC
5%	0.83 BTC
10%	0.81 BTC
15%	0.79 BTC
20%	0.77 BTC

Here is a spreadsheet you can use to calculate the value:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AllWdSPlWdvydEUwc19xWWVqa2x6eXd3V3NKV2NmZHc&usp=sharing

[superbit]

How do I put in a bid to close out my short position?  To I put in a margin buy or do I go to the exchange and put in a regular buy?

[odolvlobo]

How do I put in a bid to close out my short position?  To I put in a margin buy or do I go to the exchange and put in a regular buy?

Do a margin buy or click on Close to the right of the position info

[superbit]

How do I put in a bid to close out my short position?  To I put in a margin buy or do I go to the exchange and put in a regular buy?

Do a margin buy or click on Close to the right of the position info

Close would do it at market though right?

I am up 22% right now but I can't decide if I am better off closing now or waiting until contract ends.

[nrd525]

If you close, you can put your money into other swaps. Though this is only really useful if you want to lend out USD at 0.08%/day and have your funds in USD.  If your TH1 short is in profit, you'll get BTC for it.

[nrd525]

TH1 price is up slightly over the past 6 days.   The mining and interest value is currently around 0.73 BTC (1% difficulty increase, 3% pool fee, 0.1% swaps).  So it shouldn't be trading at 0.87.

And there are 200 bids over 0.8 BTC. That is crazy.  The 200 bids in the 0.7 to 0.73 range make sense as that is what it is actually worth.

Number of swaps is down to 62.

[superbit]

TH1 price is up slightly over the past 6 days.   The mining and interest value is currently around 0.73 BTC (1% difficulty increase, 3% pool fee, 0.1% swaps).  So it shouldn't be trading at 0.87.

And there are 200 bids over 0.8 BTC. That is crazy.  The 200 bids in the 0.7 to 0.73 range make sense as that is what it is actually worth.

Number of swaps is down to 62.

I was thinking the same thing.  I am still a little hesitant until I can borrow TH1 BTC for 30 days that crosses over the Dec 1 threshold so I don't have to worry about renewing my rates.

[deebosch]

TH1 price is up slightly over the past 6 days.   The mining and interest value is currently around 0.73 BTC (1% difficulty increase, 3% pool fee, 0.1% swaps).  So it shouldn't be trading at 0.87.

And there are 200 bids over 0.8 BTC. That is crazy.  The 200 bids in the 0.7 to 0.73 range make sense as that is what it is actually worth.

Number of swaps is down to 62.

I was thinking the same thing.  I am still a little hesitant until I can borrow TH1 BTC for 30 days that crosses over the Dec 1 threshold so I don't have to worry about renewing my rates.

Why Dec 1, its 15.12.2014 when the contract expires ?

Not much volume being traded and someone is closing old short position (60THs), therefore price has some support for now.

[superbit]

Oops, I meant Dec 15.

TH1 price is up slightly over the past 6 days.   The mining and interest value is currently around 0.73 BTC (1% difficulty increase, 3% pool fee, 0.1% swaps).  So it shouldn't be trading at 0.87.

And there are 200 bids over 0.8 BTC. That is crazy.  The 200 bids in the 0.7 to 0.73 range make sense as that is what it is actually worth.

Number of swaps is down to 62.

I was thinking the same thing.  I am still a little hesitant until I can borrow TH1 BTC for 30 days that crosses over the Dec 1 threshold so I don't have to worry about renewing my rates.

Why Dec 1, its 15.12.2014 when the contract expires ?

Not much volume being traded and someone is closing old short position (60THs), therefore price has some support for now.