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Author Topic: brace yourself... difficulty is about to increase, a lot  (Read 9980 times)
mdude77
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May 09, 2012, 10:53:19 AM
 #1

Currently at 1508590.. set to jump to estimated 1731286 in 15 blocks according to bitcoin charts.  If I do my math right, that's about a 15% increase.

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Stephen Gornick
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May 09, 2012, 11:03:17 AM
 #2

Yup, it is going to be biggest increase since June:



 - http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc&authkey=CMrV-rYE

paraipan
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May 09, 2012, 11:10:26 AM
 #3


interesting to view it like that, thanks

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vampire
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May 09, 2012, 12:08:08 PM
 #4

I wonder if bitsingles are responsible for it...
Clipse
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May 09, 2012, 12:09:12 PM
 #5

I wonder if bitsingles are responsible for it...

Highly doubt 2000-2500 BFL singles are operating.

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payb.tc
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May 09, 2012, 12:11:13 PM
 #6

it's official...

1,733,208
Fuzzy
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May 09, 2012, 12:20:04 PM
 #7

it's official...

1,733,208

And if you've seen the BFL waiting list, you know its gonna get much higher, very quickly.
Clipse
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May 09, 2012, 12:20:49 PM
 #8

it's official...

1,733,208

And if you've seen the BFL waiting list, you know its gonna get much higher, very quickly.

If thats the case, more reason to hold every single BTC earned right now.

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

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Aseras
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May 09, 2012, 01:33:03 PM
 #9

Much more likely is that Mystery miner, or some botnet got bip16 coded right and is back in business.

think about it, if there were thousands of machines that needed to be updated it would be a slow increment as they were updated and rebooted by owners or whatever. It wouldn't magically all come online at once.
ice_chill
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May 09, 2012, 01:52:08 PM
 #10

Just keep in mind that Bitcoin price isn't effected by mining, it is affected by investment.
Aseras
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May 09, 2012, 02:55:46 PM
 #11

Its just like stocks or any other commodity, how many people want it vs how many are selling it. If everyone stopped selling the value would go up as long as demand could stand the price and the holders could wait out speculating for a higher profit. Likewise, if the price jumped drastically so many would sell that the market would get flooded and the price would drop.
SgtSpike
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May 09, 2012, 03:37:43 PM
 #12

We'll probably see another difficulty drop after this.  A large jump like this will definitely push more GPU miners out of the game... and along with it, summer heat too!
randomproof
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May 09, 2012, 06:55:38 PM
 #13

Makes me wonder if it might make economical sense to turn your mining rig off for every other retarget cycle.  Turn it off when target goes up so next retarget it does down. Then turn rig on and you get more blocks per time and better profit margin. Clearly only workable if you have a sizable chunk of the total hash power.

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DeathAndTaxes
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May 09, 2012, 08:04:48 PM
 #14

Makes me wonder if it might make economical sense to turn your mining rig off for every other retarget cycle.  Turn it off when target goes up so next retarget it does down. Then turn rig on and you get more blocks per time and better profit margin. Clearly only workable if you have a sizable chunk of the total hash power.

No.  Even if you were 30% of global hashing power it wouldn't make sense.
So you turn off rig - revenue = 0x
Difficulty falls 30%
Turn on rig - revenue = 1.42x
Difficulty rises 30%.
Repeat

Over four weeks (two difficulty periods) weeks you earn 1.42x the revenue of a normal difficulty period.  vs staying online for the two difficulty periods  you would earn 2x.  It would only make sense if electricity is >60%+ of your gross revenue and if it is you shouldn't be mining anways.  

However if people want to do that I will change my answer to "Yes"*




* I am not going to argue with people helping to drop the difficulty for me.  Smiley

SgtSpike
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May 09, 2012, 09:17:03 PM
 #15

Makes me wonder if it might make economical sense to turn your mining rig off for every other retarget cycle.  Turn it off when target goes up so next retarget it does down. Then turn rig on and you get more blocks per time and better profit margin. Clearly only workable if you have a sizable chunk of the total hash power.

No.  Even if you were 30% of global hashing power it wouldn't make sense.
So you turn off rig - revenue = 0x
Difficulty falls 30%
Turn on rig - revenue = 1.42x
Difficulty rises 30%.
Repeat

Over four weeks (two difficulty periods) weeks you earn 1.42x the revenue of a normal difficulty period.  vs staying online for the two difficulty periods  you would earn 2x.  It would only make sense if electricity is >60%+ of your gross revenue and if it is you shouldn't be mining anways.  

However if people want to do that I will change my answer to "Yes"*




* I am not going to argue with people helping to drop the difficulty for me.  Smiley
Why shouldn't you be mining if > 60% of your gross revenue is electricity?  As long as < 100% of your gross revenue is electricity, it still makes sense to mine in my book...
DeathAndTaxes
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May 09, 2012, 09:30:22 PM
 #16

Why shouldn't you be mining if > 60% of your gross revenue is electricity?  As long as < 100% of your gross revenue is electricity, it still makes sense to mine in my book...

Well if you consider your time, equipment and risk worth nothing then mine until your non-electrical margins are <1%. Smiley  I value my time and I know my existing hardware has value.  If someone with cheaper electricity can unlock more value from that hardware the optimum solution would be to sell the hardware to them right?
SgtSpike
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May 09, 2012, 09:31:06 PM
 #17

Why shouldn't you be mining if > 60% of your gross revenue is electricity?  As long as < 100% of your gross revenue is electricity, it still makes sense to mine in my book...

Well if you consider your time, equipment and risk worth nothing then mine until your non-electrical margins are <1%. Smiley  I value my time and I know my existing hardware has value.  If someone with cheaper electricity can unlock more value from that hardware the optimum solution would be to sell the hardware to them right?
Ok, fair enough.  Wink
1l1l11ll1l
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May 09, 2012, 10:56:09 PM
 #18

it's official...

1,733,208

And if you've seen the BFL waiting list, you know its gonna get much higher, very quickly.

And if you've seen the BFL WAITING list, you know it's gonna get much higher, very slooooowly*.

*Fixed

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grue
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May 10, 2012, 12:56:28 AM
 #19

I wonder if bitsingles are responsible for it...
nope, just botnets.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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seriouscoin
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May 10, 2012, 03:35:29 AM
 #20

I wonder if bitsingles are responsible for it...
nope, just botnets.

I know ppl throw botnets around alot on the forum, but is there any actually proof? anyone bother did forensic search?

I cant imagine all the botnets happend to have GPUs (high end ones), last time i look CPU mining is utterly low .
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