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Author Topic: Bitcoin long term linear trend  (Read 6416 times)
cbeast
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October 31, 2014, 10:04:17 AM
 #21

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?
No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.
Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 31, 2014, 11:53:38 AM
 #22

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?
No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.
Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

But in what alt to invest or to keep some amount of cash.
To play safe on some stable and trustworthy or to gamble a little and try to make bigger piece of cake in this picture.



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October 31, 2014, 12:17:12 PM
 #23

Woot! So, I took out a fiat bank loan payable in 60 months. In addition to that, I'm opening a game site. I should be able to make back a little bit more than enough to pay my monthly amortizations in a few weeks. By the time my loan is fully paid, I should have at least quadrupled it.

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October 31, 2014, 12:34:51 PM
 #24

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?
No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.
Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

But in what alt to invest or to keep some amount of cash.
To play safe on some stable and trustworthy or to gamble a little and try to make bigger piece of cake in this picture.

Okay now you're just playing with me. This technology is too important to be ignored. Your projections wouldn't even attract a buyout by Facebook.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 31, 2014, 02:42:42 PM
 #25



My favourite chart is Blockchain.info market cap.

Bitcoin volatility doesn't seem so bad looking at this chart.

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October 31, 2014, 03:44:17 PM
 #26

Uhm...you wrote:
Quote
The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

so, for example, in 01/2015 we have:

t=1+12+12+1=26

P=13.5*26+12=363

and in 12/2015 t=37, so P=511?

too low. It doesn't convinct me.

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November 01, 2014, 06:28:32 AM
 #27

Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

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November 01, 2014, 08:25:23 AM
 #28

Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

I would expect in 5 to 10 years for the dollar to crash hard which would throw all charts out the window.

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November 01, 2014, 11:48:57 AM
 #29

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

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November 01, 2014, 11:56:35 AM
 #30

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end:  $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

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November 01, 2014, 11:59:47 AM
 #31

Clearly your chart was wrong for most of 2014. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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November 04, 2014, 09:19:26 AM
 #32

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end:  $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

This is still low wont halving increase price.
With this there is almost no profit.

Maybe im wrong but with this formula i figure it out like that.

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November 04, 2014, 02:13:01 PM
 #33

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end:  $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

This is still low wont halving increase price.
With this there is almost no profit.

Maybe im wrong but with this formula i figure it out like that.


Yes, the formula changes each time due to the halving (which was pointed out that over the long term that means an exponential trend).

If you take the change from the first halving and apply the difference to the second then starting after the next halving it will be:
P = 20.25t
So, assuming $660 in August, 2016...by August 2017 the price will be over $900. This would put us over $1000/BTC by January 2018.

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November 04, 2014, 03:16:51 PM
 #34

So I triple my money in 4 years? Could you spoon feed those of us who don't know how to use the formula and make a little chart with every month starting now (November 2014), until December 2019 or December 2020? Smiley

Thanks.

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November 04, 2014, 03:17:23 PM
 #35

Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

Yep, especially not a linear one. Anyone can fit a linear function to a chart. It's still meaningless.
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November 04, 2014, 03:30:36 PM
 #36

I didn't read this thread when the OP first posted it, after all it was to-da-moon Elwar, so what could a bear like me find in it?
But now I read it and I think it makes sense to describe the base bitcoin (efficient market) price with a more-or-less linear function.
The speculative bubbles are on top of that and since they take a significant time to deflate, the linear base trend is difficult to spot.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 04, 2014, 03:46:06 PM
 #37

There is usually a lot of speculation that the bitcoin price is exponential. While there are some instances of exponential price rise when there is a self fulfilling feedback loop of excitement over a price rise which brought us the $32, $266 and $1240 prices. If we step back and look over the long term you can see a linear price rise.



I split it in two to show before and after the price halving (and to go from MtGox to BitStamp).



This would indicate that the true price should be around $310 or so right now which would explain the long downtrend.


But there are a few positives from a linear price rise. It is less volatile, it makes sense for a currency and it continues to trend up.

There is also a slight upward rise in the rate of price increase at the halving, which would indicate that in 2016 the rate will tick up a little more at the next halving.

The current price is where the linear price will be in December. If we go down a bit before then, it will probably follow close to the trend.

While an exponential rise is exciting and great if you get out at the top, a linear price rise is good in the long term.

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

Before the halving the rate was closer to:
P = .5t + 1
t being months from February 2010

With the formula after the next halving:
P = 20.25t + 660
t being months from November 2016

You have described an exponential function..
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November 04, 2014, 03:58:54 PM
 #38

You have described an exponential function..

Yes, though most people would consider 4 years as long term when it comes to Bitcoin.

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November 04, 2014, 05:22:04 PM
 #39

the long downtrend comes from mining being centralised and thus dumping harder and thus becoming more centralised.

Miners holding the coin they mine is a thing of the past. Bitcoin is a cashcow for everybody to milk. People buying bitcoin miss the point.

The old longterm-charts say nothing because in the old days most what was mined was held. These days market has to eat all the new coins on a daily basis. I have no hope this can go over 500$ before the next halving.

Bitcoin looks like a scam these days. Altcoins are also full of scams. This whole crypto-thing died from greed. Most people have left already. Bitcoin is not the future, it is insignificant. People will not want to use it.
In economic troubled times we are better off to resort to gold and silver than using bitcoin. Just deal with it: the way it is right now it has no future.
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November 04, 2014, 06:03:55 PM
 #40

I see bitcoin like a function strictly increasing, however, don't worry if price decrease in some time and then increase in other time, in long term price will rise.
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