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 Author Topic: Bitcoin long term linear trend  (Read 6464 times)
Elwar
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 September 30, 2014, 10:44:23 AM

There is usually a lot of speculation that the bitcoin price is exponential. While there are some instances of exponential price rise when there is a self fulfilling feedback loop of excitement over a price rise which brought us the \$32, \$266 and \$1240 prices. If we step back and look over the long term you can see a linear price rise.

http://i61.tinypic.com/b3u4wx.png

I split it in two to show before and after the price halving (and to go from MtGox to BitStamp).

Old Pic http://i59.tinypic.com/2dtk4x.png
Older Pic: http://i60.tinypic.com/vertj.png

This would indicate that the true price should be around \$500 (Dec. 2015) or so right now which would explain the recent uptrend from a long low price.

There are a few positives from a linear price rise. It is less volatile, it makes sense for a currency and it continues to trend up.

There is also a slight upward rise in the rate of price increase at the halving, which would indicate that in 2016 the rate will tick up a little more at the next halving.

While an exponential rise is exciting and great if you get out at the top, a linear price rise is good in the long term.

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

Before the halving the rate was closer to:
P = .3t + 1
t being months from February 2010

With the formula after the next halving:
P = 20.25t + 660
t being months from July 2016

Edit:
This actually does make the price exponential over time, the charts are showing the linear trend between halvings.

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Xiaoxiao
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The Golden Rule Rules

 September 30, 2014, 11:08:03 AM

True linear price should be around \$50-\$100 right now.
Elwar
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 September 30, 2014, 11:16:18 AM

True linear price should be around \$50-\$100 right now.

Yes, if inflation was not cut in half in 2012.

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 September 30, 2014, 11:47:57 AM

Quote
This would indicate that the true price should be around \$310 or so right now which would explain the long downtrend.

Maybe little less then 300 but in range above 200\$ is maybe most realistic price in the moment.
But like everything price can be manipulated.

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jook
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 September 30, 2014, 11:59:00 AM

I don't quite understand your argument.

Assuming there is (1) a distinct linear trend between block reward halvings and (2) these linear trends continue to get steeper after each halving, then the long-term trend will be exponential, not linear.

You could chop any exponential bubble chart into small pieces and draw a straight line through each of them. The complete chart will still be exponential. When talking of a long-term trend you should draw your trend lines on a single long-term chart. Then you'll notice that it doesn't look linear at all.
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 September 30, 2014, 12:07:58 PM

It looks linear because we are still here

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Elwar
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 September 30, 2014, 12:11:59 PM

I don't quite understand your argument.

Assuming there is (1) a distinct linear trend between block reward halvings and (2) these linear trends continue to get steeper after each halving, then the long-term trend will be exponential, not linear.

You could chop any exponential bubble chart into small pieces and draw a straight line through each of them. The complete chart will still be exponential. When talking of a long-term trend you should draw your trend lines on a single long-term chart. Then you'll notice that it doesn't look linear at all.

I had not thought of that. The linear rate will increase at each halving. But I think most people see an exponential increase of demand while I think over time it will be linear with small bursts as major developments take place.

Over time the affect of inflation will level out when block reward is replaced more by transaction fees as the reward for finding a block.

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bajlox
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 September 30, 2014, 12:16:21 PM

So we can expect next jump when?
End of year or in beginning of next one.

Basically we can make price go up.

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 September 30, 2014, 12:18:03 PM

It looks linear because we are still here

Sure we are here but in no time we can be back up again.
But i dont think that it will be any time soon, I would like like all of you but it wont.

Need something big to happen so that price goes up again.
Dont you all agree.

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 October 30, 2014, 08:36:12 AM

The price is right on target:
P = 13.5t + 12

t = 24 months (as of tomorrow)

P = \$336

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 October 30, 2014, 12:44:24 PM

The price is right on target:
P = 13.5t + 12

t = 24 months (as of tomorrow)

P = \$336

What could be the bottom then?

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Elwar
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 October 30, 2014, 12:53:21 PM

The price is right on target:
P = 13.5t + 12

t = 24 months (as of tomorrow)

P = \$336

What could be the bottom then?

Anything. Just as the high went far above the linear growth, the bottom could be far below.

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azguard
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Crypto-News.net: News from Crypto World

 October 31, 2014, 07:36:42 AM

The price is right on target:
P = 13.5t + 12

t = 24 months (as of tomorrow)

P = \$336

What could be the bottom then?

Bottom 200. More or less.
Will this be now like last year or just speculation.
Or will be just to buy for small BTC then sell it high.

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gr8n8
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 October 31, 2014, 07:39:12 AM

It looks linear because we are still here

Sure we are here but in no time we can be back up again.
But i dont think that it will be any time soon, I would like like all of you but it wont.

Need something big to happen so that price goes up again.
Dont you all agree.

i pick this answer
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

 October 31, 2014, 08:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
Elwar
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www.varyon.io

 October 31, 2014, 09:20:45 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

 October 31, 2014, 09:34:41 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
Elwar
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www.varyon.io

 October 31, 2014, 09:44:28 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

 October 31, 2014, 09:55:12 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?
No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
Elwar
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Activity: 2506
Merit: 1166

www.varyon.io

 October 31, 2014, 09:58:25 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?
A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?
No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

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