Why BTC is having trouble breaking $360

[Billbags]

I don't think we have reached that phase yet..it will be a little longer before that goes into effect.

Ya, it's a little to early to be in that middle stage of the entire game plan. I was getting a bit carried away this morning and jumping the gun a little. Thanks for keeping me in check. I'll correct that remark from present to near future.

[fewcoins]

^ You guys realize we are talking about BTC. All that alt coin stuff doesn't apply here. Last year I bought bitcoins for $145 then got scared from talk like this and sold for $45......then cryed myself to sleep when it hit $1300. Note there is a lot more going on in the world outside of bitcoin that affects the price. Everything is down right now because of what happened last month. Gold is going down to $700 a troy oz. The stock market is crashing.....bitcoin is a world currency, it may be decentralised, but it's still a world currency and gets affected by world events like any other currency. We need to be analyzing the US inflating the dollar last month that crashed gold, silver and the stocks. What about SWIFT and BRIC? What about the violence in the streets in China against their students and citizens right now? We need to focus on more than just miners selling coins and our BTC exchanges.

Sorry for the rant, just woke up, need coffee.

Note: Bitcoin was not created by some Kid with an idea on summer break. It was carefully designed by a person very skilled in game theory, encryption, economics, finance, programming, and law. We are heading to the phase (in the near future) of Satoshi's plan where the governments will start creating regulations about BTC. This is the "Suspense & Drama" phase. The prices will fluctuate dramatically for awhile. That will happen when we fully reach the middle of the bitcoin plan where the governments create regulations against the Bitcoin system that the people are already adapting to. These regulations will actually make the people resist and revolt against the old money system even harder. This also creates more people learning about Bitcoin and not wanting the old money system either. Because of this, the government, to some extent, will eventually have to give in. Smart contracts will be the beginning of the completion of the "Kola Ring" that was foreseen and designed into bitcoin by Satoshi. Like I said, this is wasn't created by some Kid. Bitcoin was not a whim, it was decades of contemplation, study and waiting on the advancement of systems needed for its implementation. Satoshi could see so far into the future, because he could see so far into the past. He surpassed Adam Smith by learning from the history of the Indians that went so much further back than anyone could have known.

*Updated to correct from  "present tense" to "near future".  ~Thanks

Just because you missed the boat ride once, doesn't mean the boat will travel down the same path again... Notice how all the ALT coins are basically scams just to get more BTC ( which gets dumped for fiat) so just like every scam this is basically a whole bunch of shenanigans to get money from us all! Everything is actually not down right now, you have no idea what you're talking about. Yes gold is going down but it is still 1,200/oz NO POSSIBLE WAY it is going to 700/oz. Maybe 1,000 but 700 is impossible & how is the stock market crashing??? We are at the highest level in awhile so what exactly are you looking at?? You sound like an idiot even saying that now... I got BAC @ $5 Ford @ $1 Sandisk @ $10 Netflix @ $80 GOOG @ $200 Trust me this established market makes way more than bitcoin! The only people making it in BTC right now are the businesses (that got VC funding & dump everything for fiat) and the miners ( who dump everything for fiat asap) You def need glasses & a coffee....... Any system created by anybody on this earth no matter how smart has been used to scam people out of plenty of money. That's what is happening with bitcoin right now. GLTA

[jaysabi]

Bitcoin's market cap is down about a billion dollars in the last few months. That's a substantial amount, but I think narrowing it down to a reason or a list of reason's isn't a fulfilling enterprise. Like everything else in a complex economy, it's a lot of factors that work together in ways we can't fully understand. My personal view is that over the past year, there's been a lot of venture capital investment in bitcoin and bitcoin businesses. This downtrend right now could be the result of profit taking by the big players who have invested. While that makes sense to me, it's just speculation, and like I said, is most likely a whole mess of reasons we can't fully understand.

[Billbags]

^ quote from fewcoins
Just because you missed the boat ride once, doesn't mean the boat will travel down the same path again... Notice how all the ALT coins are basically scams just to get more BTC ( which gets dumped for fiat) so just like every scam this is basically a whole bunch of shenanigans to get money from us all! Everything is actually not down right now, you have no idea what you're talking about. Yes gold is going down but it is still 1,200/oz NO POSSIBLE WAY it is going to 700/oz. Maybe 1,000 but 700 is impossible & how is the stock market crashing??? We are at the highest level in awhile so what exactly are you looking at?? You sound like an idiot even saying that now... I got BAC @ $5 Ford @ $1 Sandisk @ $10 Netflix @ $80 GOOG @ $200 Trust me this established market makes way more than bitcoin! The only people making it in BTC right now are the businesses (that got VC funding & dump everything for fiat) and the miners ( who dump everything for fiat asap) You def need glasses & a coffee....... Any system created by anybody on this earth no matter how smart has been used to scam people out of plenty of money. That's what is happening with bitcoin right now. GLTA
^ quote from fewcoins


I was just making a point that factors other than miners and exchanges are also to be looked at when the price is dropping. I have a small mining farm and I'm not selling or unplugging, and I know several others who are doing the same. As far as I know the stock market is down 5% this year(I see you hold some very good choices). Most of the stock I hold are "Company Stocks" for retirement, so I am more worried about the net unrealized appreciation(NUA) of the full market value shares(FMV) to the present value and hope and pray for an inflated balance at the time of distribution. So I do watch the market some. And as far as gold, I invest and follow gold and silver closely. I haven't started buying more gold until I think its bottomed a little more, but I have been picking some silver up lately at great prices.

Stock market down 5% this year @forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rafaelresendes/2014/02/11/the-stock-market-is-down-5-for-the-year-what-should-you-do/

Gold could go as low as $700 @cnbc
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101838571

BTC-e all large orders are buying, not selling @0100hrs US Central Time
https://btc-e.com/  

[Fabrizio89]

Well, seems like we could have found a bottom for the mining squeeze at least, it will take a couple more weeks to be sure, but the estimate for the next difficulty keeps dropping:
35,124,604,673 (+1.34%)
We'll see if removing miners pressure from the market is enough to have an upward correction.

[a447513372]

The reason is obvious. The facts are that the supply is indeed increasing everyday, but they are increasing at the SAME rate per day. Network hash has increased but the number of coins minted remain the same. This was the case when 50 coins were the reward per block. During that time, BTC had no problems gaining large amounts of investment.

Now, the reward is halved and many people say that the supply of coins is forcing the price down because there aren't enough buyers?

How about the BTC ETF traded on the Nasdaq later this year? Winklvoss will require the ownership of a very very large amount of BTC to make issuing these ETF's on nasdaq viable. They sure as hell aren't buying it up at today's prices. Furthermore, they have a few hundred thousand BTC already, and believe me, it wouldn't take very much of their holdings to start a downwards trend.

When the time is right, they can also eat up BTC faster than anyone too.

Just be ready for end of the year, have plenty of btc ready.

Actually that ETF isn't coming out... lmfao if you only knew man!

Am I missing something, what do you mean its not coming out?

He is spreading FUD, there are still plans on the COIN EFT being released. That is really the only thing that I can think of that would potentially cause the next bubble, and until it is released I would predict short term selling pressure

[cutesakura]

there was a time that bitcoin prices go up and there are times when the price is down, it is already common in financial markets, depending on how much demand and the availability of goods in the market. hopefully bitcoin prices will go up and stable as the original ... 

[GangkisKhan]

All people thought having wider adaptation and merchant acceptance increase the value of bitcoin.

Little do we realize that only create more sell pressure due to merchant not willing to horde bitcoin.

[freedomno1]

It's a very painful transition towards mainstream adoption where the large supply of bitcoins being spent cannot keep up with the demand
Once that stabilizes we will be in for some good times lol.
Hopefully December. RIP YTD

[cryptonikus]

Isnt this what always happen? We will see these swing quite a few times in future. There was lot of hype by media about 2014 being a year of BTC...so this is just correction to more realistic value.

[jaysabi]

All people thought having wider adaptation and merchant acceptance increase the value of bitcoin.

Little do we realize that only create more sell pressure due to merchant not willing to horde bitcoin.

Actually, I really think this point is being overlooked. All the big merchants who accept bitcoin in any meaningful way instantly convert to fiat because they can't risk holding bitcoins and the having the volatility eat away their profit margins. So this is actually creating a lot of downward pressure. What we thought was a good (wider merchant bitcoin acceptance) may actually be adding more downward price pressure than upward price pressure.

[Billbags]

^ I was hoping the same thing while spending my bitcoin with all those new companies, but they were just trading it for cash. I guess Its still to early in the game for stability. People can't really grasp the idea of having a currency with a fixed total supply(21 million). Everyone is used to "money printing" by governments, inflation really isn't cared about or discussed anymore by the youth. We need to peg it to a commodity while taking into account no more can be made after the 21 million. Something like 0.00000001 for a loaf of bread or 0.00000002 for a gallon of milk. We could start by using other currency first so "Joe Public" might understand better, so 0.00000001 = 1 yen or euros or dollars. This would be when the true stability for bitcoin and economic freedom for people can begin.

[zimmah]

People no more weak holder and panic seller, price would not drop below $360...

Panic sellers are mostly gone already, why would anyone hold for months through all the price drops just to panic sell now? Where they on vacation the past year? Without any internet access?

The sellers right now are mainly merchants (insta-sell through bitpay or whatever they use) and miners (who have to sell because they could otherwise not afford to lay their electricity bills). Some sellers may be traders but since they also buy it has less effect. Although they may cause short to medium timed swings. Depending on the type of trader.

Actually, I really think this point is being overlooked. All the big merchants who accept bitcoin in any meaningful way instantly convert to fiat because they can't risk holding bitcoins and the having the volatility eat away their profit margins. So this is actually creating a lot of downward pressure. What we thought was a good (wider merchant bitcoin acceptance) may actually be adding more downward price pressure than upward price pressure.

That doesn't mean it's a bad thing, merchant adoption will eventually lead to a bigger market and thus more value. It just takes some time, and during this time the price will drop massively, because of sell pressure.

But now that bitcoin has more use than ever, more people will consider using it, and before using it they Wil need to buy it, thus the demand for bitcoin will rise and with it the price. It just takes a while for demand to catch up with supply.

Although if you look at the charts, it's clear demand has already risen the past few months, and it's higher than it ever was. It just isn't that apperant by the price yet because supply is so extreme high right now that the price is still dropping despite the demand being at an all time high.

However, if the demand continues to grow at this rate (and there is no reason it won't) we will soon see the demand outgrowing supply and thus the prices will once again skyrocket, which in turn will trigger even more buyers and cause a chain reaction and a massive rally which will of course end at some time just to cycle into another period of downward pressure but a bit higher than we are now, just like all the times before.

Each cycle more users and more merchants join, and more people become aware of bitcoin. And each cycle the floor price increases.

[Jybrael]

I like the way how the price goes down once and every one starts to panic....almost everyone..guys please lets keep a level head and just patiently wait our time. Everything will be back to normal eventually.

[Amph]

That doesn't mean it's a bad thing, merchant adoption will eventually lead to a bigger market and thus more value. It just takes some time, and during this time the price will drop massively, because of sell pressure.

But now that bitcoin has more use than ever, more people will consider using it, and before using it they Wil need to buy it, thus the demand for bitcoin will rise and with it the price. It just takes a while for demand to catch up with supply.

Although if you look at the charts, it's clear demand has already risen the past few months, and it's higher than it ever was. It just isn't that apperant by the price yet because supply is so extreme high right now that the price is still dropping despite the demand being at an all time high.

However, if the demand continues to grow at this rate (and there is no reason it won't) we will soon see the demand outgrowing supply and thus the prices will once again skyrocket, which in turn will trigger even more buyers and cause a chain reaction and a massive rally which will of course end at some time just to cycle into another period of downward pressure but a bit higher than we are now, just like all the times before.

Each cycle more users and more merchants join, and more people become aware of bitcoin. And each cycle the floor price increases.

i'm with this at 100%, absolutely the truth, the true climb(the big one) takes time, plenty of time, not few weeks or months, and it's already happening

if anyone compare the highest before the last pump(was $90?), you could clearly see that we are in a good position, +350%

[Omikifuse]

Bitcoin broke 360.

But in the wrong direction

[My Name Was Taken]

Although if you look at the charts, it's clear demand has already risen the past few months, and it's higher than it ever was. It just isn't that apperant by the price yet because supply is so extreme high right now that the price is still dropping despite the demand being at an all time high.

This doesn't make sense. Supply has been rising slowly and predictably as more bitcoins are mined into existence, 25 coins roughly every 10 minutes. The fact that the price has declined so dramatically over the past several months shows that demand is not keeping up with this slow supply increase. If demand was higher right now than it's ever been, as you say, you wouldn't be seeing a 50% drop in price over the past several months.

However, if the demand continues to grow at this rate (and there is no reason it won't) we will soon see the demand outgrowing supply and thus the prices will once again skyrocket, which in turn will trigger even more buyers and cause a chain reaction and a massive rally which will of course end at some time just to cycle into another period of downward pressure but a bit higher than we are now, just like all the times before.

Each cycle more users and more merchants join, and more people become aware of bitcoin. And each cycle the floor price increases.

You have it right that if demand outpaces supply, that's what will cause price to rise, but you're assertion that there is no reason it won't isn't based on anything but conjecture. There has to be a catalyst for demand though. Last year, when btc broke $1000, it was the novelty and mania surrounding it that drove it so high so fast. Under your logic, there's no reason the price would ever decrease, if rising prices always cause more people to jump on the bandwagon. But what happened at the top of that rally last year? People started taking profits by selling btc for fiat to lock in their gains. That's bitcoin's problem, is people will convert it back when the risk of holding bitcoins is too high. You can further tell bitcoin's problem by the fact that people always quote the price of bitcoin in dollars. That's how you know bitcoin will never replace the dollar, it's measured in dollars.

[jaysabi]

I think you have a lot of hedge funds and venture capitalists who got into bitcoin because it looked like easy profits, and now they are getting out that the price is declining, which is causing it to decline faster. Fundamentally, nothing has changed about bitcoin though. I would think that all this selling would make a good entry point, but I'm sure people were thinking that when it declined to $800, 700, 600, 500 and 400 too.

The bottom line is the mania that caused $1000+ prices may be over, and you shouldn't be buying now because it''s cheaper than it was yesterday. Don't put any money into bitcoin you can't afford to lose. There's no reason to think the price has to go up just because it's lower than it was once upon a time.

[Jybrael]

I think you have a lot of hedge funds and venture capitalists who got into bitcoin because it looked like easy profits, and now they are getting out that the price is declining, which is causing it to decline faster. Fundamentally, nothing has changed about bitcoin though. I would think that all this selling would make a good entry point, but I'm sure people were thinking that when it declined to $800, 700, 600, 500 and 400 too.

The bottom line is the mania that caused $1000+ prices may be over, and you shouldn't be buying now because it''s cheaper than it was yesterday. Don't put any money into bitcoin you can't afford to lose. There's no reason to think the price has to go up just because it's lower than it was once upon a time.

I will agree with you, put in an amount that you are willing to lose. Bitcoin may rise up once again or not now that depends totally on speculation and how far everyone is willing to take it.

[fewcoins]

I think you have a lot of hedge funds and venture capitalists who got into bitcoin because it looked like easy profits, and now they are getting out that the price is declining, which is causing it to decline faster. Fundamentally, nothing has changed about bitcoin though. I would think that all this selling would make a good entry point, but I'm sure people were thinking that when it declined to $800, 700, 600, 500 and 400 too.

The bottom line is the mania that caused $1000+ prices may be over, and you shouldn't be buying now because it''s cheaper than it was yesterday. Don't put any money into bitcoin you can't afford to lose. There's no reason to think the price has to go up just because it's lower than it was once upon a time.

Hedge funds and venture capitalist never got into buying BTC, they did what they do best... Buy startup companies in position to make crazy profit margins. Even though value of BTC is falling to a all time low the profit from the exchanges, due to the insane volume, has never been better!!!