Crunch time!

[inca]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.



I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

[1714680818]

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[1714680818]

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[Dafar]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.



I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

I've always been bearish for 2014



But I'm bullish for bitcoin as a whole... I just don't know when the bulls will come out. I doubt it will be this year

[sgbett]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

Methinks: if a certain market bottom (or top) is taken for granted by the majority, it likely isn't granted to happen at all.
In fairness I still see a likely bottom around 250 but I don't discount a quick dip below 200.
Not that I'm going to take any coin out of cold storage because of this.

people used to say bottom was $1000 $900,$800,$700,$600,$500,$400,$300..
guess what? some day you will say the bottom is $0.01 and still goes wrong because bitcoin is going to nowhere but down lower and lower then the final capitulation

{debunked chart}

[EuroTrash]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I learnt about bitcoin on November 2011 (but invested much later) so I wasn't there to see the carnage and desolation of the time.
I have been through the April 2013 bubble and took out 100% profit in fiat (and some sanity back) in the aftermath. I have seller's remorse, just a tad. Then during this last bubble pop I have had more success trading, but the prolonged bear market has caught me off guard twice in a row. Then I stopped trading. I still have more coins than I had when the November bubble popped.
So far my reason for staying bearish lies in the coincidence between now and 2011 that I see in this chart I made below.



In a way I made my own cult. It's called "cult of the red line". I believe that when the red line will rise above the blue one, then the blue one will have to follow and bring BTCUSD up. For now my cult says that there still are too many coins around and not enough takers.

[Dafar]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.



I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

anyone has brain can see this coming! you know it too but don't want to admit it
so you decide to bury your head in the sand and continue to fool others to buy your bags!

Anyone with a brain would not take you seriously. Not because you think bitcoin is going to $0 (lol) but you are not convincing at all.. you sound like a dumbass, an annoying one too

[vipgelsi]

Bitcoin to zero? Nope.

[inca]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I learnt about bitcoin on November 2011 (but invested much later) so I wasn't there to see the carnage and desolation of the time.
I have been through the April 2013 bubble and took out 100% profit in fiat (and some sanity back) in the aftermath. I have seller's remorse, just a tad. Then during this last bubble pop I have had more success trading, but the prolonged bear market has caught me off guard twice in a row. Then I stopped trading. I still have more coins than I had when the November bubble popped.
So far my reason for staying bearish lies in the coincidence between now and 2011 that I see in this chart I made below.



In a way I made my own cult. It's called "cult of the red line". I believe that when the red line will rise above the blue one, then the blue one will have to follow and bring BTCUSD up. For now my cult says that there still are too many coins around and not enough takers.

Fascinating chart. Something seems to have happened around the start of the year causing a divergence which has persisted ever since. Could there have been a rise of off chain transactions through use of centralised wallet services or something to account for this? Newer services like circle work like this I think. Amazing correlation until this year though. It will be interesting to see how the chart goes forward and if there is a convergence in the future signalling another bull run. Thanks for posting.

Edit: it only really closely matched during 2012 and 2013, though seems to be correlated with price rises very well..definitely one to watch

[sgbett]

OTC trades?

[mmortal03]

Speaking of crunch time, a diff chart subtracting the current daily price from a year ago would be interesting. If we don't take off pretty soon, it will begin to approach zero pretty rapidly here. We're about a month and a half away from going negative after 365 days.

[anu]

Anyone with a brain would not take you seriously. Not because you think bitcoin is going to $0 (lol) but you are not convincing at all.. you sound like a dumbass, an annoying one too

No intention to censor, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Everyone who claims BTC goes to zero owes this extraordinary evidence. Otherwise they should be ignored.

[bucktotal]

inca, are you seriously wondering what event happened at the beginning of the year that could have affected daily btc/usd transaction volumes in such a massive way?  how soon we forget... 

[inca]

inca, are you seriously wondering what event happened at the beginning of the year that could have affected daily btc/usd transaction volumes in such a massive way?  how soon we forget... 

Would box alter on chain transaction volume? I suppose indirectly yes!

[bitgeek]

Anyone with a brain would not take you seriously. Not because you think bitcoin is going to $0 (lol) but you are not convincing at all.. you sound like a dumbass, an annoying one too

No intention to censor, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Everyone who claims BTC goes to zero owes this extraordinary evidence. Otherwise they should be ignored.

Bitcoin doesn't have to go to 0 to be considered a failure. Going back to to below $200 would mean the same to most people as going to $10. It would mean the last year of development, among which we had investment funds, ATM's, regulations were worthless.

Don't forget that a very gigh percentage of bitcoin users bought their coins in the last 12 months (for $200+) and will bail out if the price goes lower, causing a massive dip.
I personally don't believe we'll even go below $300.

[Ibian]

So, random drunk thought. How many hodlers counting from just after the last top are left by now? 1%?

[sgbett]

[EuroTrash]

inca, are you seriously wondering what event happened at the beginning of the year that could have affected daily btc/usd transaction volumes in such a massive way?  how soon we forget... 

Would gox alter on chain transaction volume? I suppose indirectly yes!

The crash happened before Gox insolvency.
On-chain transaction volume lagged a few days behind the bubble pop.

My assumption is that the on-chain transaction volume (the red line in my chart) is the summation of 2 components:
1. Speculation
    - this includes transactions between personal wallets and exchanges
2. Economy:
    - mostly dark markets because they are the only place where non-cultists need to use bitcoin instead of fiat. These transactions are all definitely on-chain not through payment processors.
    - payment for digital goods (e.g. porn) is our next hope (because of insane chargeback ratios in that specific business)
    - remittances are insignificant atm because bitcoins are way too complicated for e.g. sending money to a wife in Nigeria
    - purchases at normal merchants, for cultists only because using fiat is honestly easier than using bitcoins

During price rises, the blue line leads the red line, because in the euphoria  of the moment, the red line is mostly made of speculation not true underlying economy. During bubble pops, the mania is over and many are reluctant to sell, a bit like real estate markets in some countries in Europe: prices are slowly declining because people are reluctant to sell at a loss and buyers are not interested at high prices, so the volume drops to a trickle. So the speculation component in the red line drops fast and the blue line lags a lot behind the red line. This will keep going until the supply can sustain the non-speculative economy, which as of today is still very slowly increasing in size, my guess mostly thanks to the dark markets.

So we will get there. According to the red line, a bitcoin today is worth 234$.

[BTCtrader71]

Bitcoin doesn't have to go to 0 to be considered a failure. Going back to to below $200 would mean the same to most people as going to $10. It would mean the last year of development, among which we had investment funds, ATM's, regulations were worthless.

Not true. A bear market will not undo, destroy or negate the infrastructure (in terms of hash rate, merchant adoption, customer adoption, ATMs, etc) that has been built to date. I don't care how low it dips.

[findftp]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I learnt about bitcoin on November 2011 (but invested much later) so I wasn't there to see the carnage and desolation of the time.
I have been through the April 2013 bubble and took out 100% profit in fiat (and some sanity back) in the aftermath. I have seller's remorse, just a tad. Then during this last bubble pop I have had more success trading, but the prolonged bear market has caught me off guard twice in a row. Then I stopped trading. I still have more coins than I had when the November bubble popped.
So far my reason for staying bearish lies in the coincidence between now and 2011 that I see in this chart I made below.



In a way I made my own cult. It's called "cult of the red line". I believe that when the red line will rise above the blue one, then the blue one will have to follow and bring BTCUSD up. For now my cult says that there still are too many coins around and not enough takers.

Amazing chart. One of a few which seems to make sense.
Thanks for sharing.

[sgbett]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I was, it feels very similar, and that price just does not seem to want to go any lower... Something gonna give

[inca]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I was, it feels very similar, and that price just does not seem to want to go any lower... Something gonna give

Thanks for the perspective.