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Author Topic: How Low Does Bitcoin's Price Need Get to Make People Stop Believing?  (Read 6395 times)
Coinbuddy
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October 04, 2014, 06:38:57 AM
 #1

On October 3 the price of bitcoin touched $360, marking a low for 2014. The week before, venture capitalist Tim Draper – the winner of the giant government bitcoin auction that saw Draper come into possession of 0.25 percent of all BTC – went on Fox Business to dispel any fears that the ride was over. Well, not only that the ride wasn’t over. That it was just beginning.
In talking up the currency, he said “I am still predicting, Bitcoin, $10,000 in three years. It is a hedge against a lot of fiat currency, because it is a new way of transferring cash throughout the world in a much more efficient way. And Bitcoin has a created a whole infrastructure of many, many companies some of which came out of Boost the incubator. And those companies are creating this whole new culture, and this whole new way of thinking.”
It’s a lot of justification for the big headline: bitcoin will hit $10,000 in three years. Why would Draper say this? He certainly might believe bitcoin is going to be the future, to be sure.
But the reason he’s going on Fox Business to make this claim is because he has a sizable stake in it. He needs people to believe bitcoin will increase 30 times in value. Or people will lose interest and sell, and he’ll lose even more millions (in USD) than he already has – Draper bought in when bitcoin was worth almost twice as much, and is on the hook for roughly $9 million in losses in just four months.
This is not to point out the obvious, the Draper is a businessman and he needs his investment to make money. Rather, it raises a question indirectly that a lot of bitcoin diehards need to ask themselves: is there any price point that would cause you to pull your money out of bitcoin?
A lot of people, even ideologues invested in bitcoin as an entirely new paradigm that can upset the accepted fiat currency system, are simultaneously hoping to make a little money with their bitcoin stake. While they might not spend a lot of time thinking about price, the major players like Draper certainly care. As does a large swath of the market. Because there’s the possibility of BTC going to $10,000 in three years.
And there’s also the possibility of it going to $1. Many of bitcoin’s ideological adherents tend to hold no matter what. But does that mean there is literally no point from which to cut losses and sell out? What if bitcoin goes back to that penny trading range? What if it stays there for a year? For five years? How long will you buy and buy and buy at a continual loss? Until you die?
People like Draper can talk a big game, but they are beholden to their investors, same as any business. And make no mistake, Draper has a point where he will cut his losses and move on.
Bitcoin could go to $10,000 and stay there, though it’s highly unlikely. It could also go to five cents and stay there (also highly unlikely). But one way or another, bitcoin players need to answer the question: am I willing to go down with the ship even if Draper doesn’t?

- See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/currencies-forex/how-low-could-bitcoin-get-to-make-people-stop-believing#sthash.FB78KwkH.dpuf

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October 04, 2014, 06:50:23 AM
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Tell the inside traders to stop messing around with the price and you would get many non-believers coming back very quickly, when the price hits $1000 again.

It's only the price watchers, that turns non-believer, many of us, look at the possibilities the protocol offer and build your wealth around that.

If you derive income from millions of micro transactions, even at a low price, you still making millions. You could have made Billions at a better price, but then you would have simply, just been greedy.  Grin

Most people buy BTC wait a few months and expect a massive return. {When the price stay low, they get out, and flame the currency}

Look for opportunities to invest in business, where the upturn would eventually make you rich, and forget about short term gains.   

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October 04, 2014, 06:52:18 AM
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Believing in what? ... that Bitcoin works as advertised? FYI... Bitcoin works long as the price is greater than 0!!!!!
But at 0, it loses function to move value around easily... at which point someone will buy some up or it will go down in history as pehaps one of greatest inventions regarding currency this decade and past century by a small group of the only smart people left in this world. LOL...

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October 04, 2014, 06:56:15 AM
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Now matter how low the price is, there are always some persistent believers who are holding positive views of bitcoin.

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October 04, 2014, 07:00:05 AM
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One thing we do know for sure is eventually all fiat currencies go to 0 , I for one strongly believe Bitcoin will always be worth more than that =)

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October 04, 2014, 07:15:44 AM
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Not a matter of belief, it's a matter of how low does it need to get for businesses to notice that nobody is spending their devalued BTC anymore, and stop immediately converting to fiat (which devalues BTC with every market dump).

Will people still keep spending their BTC they bought for $1000 when the exchange rate drops to fucking $0.01? If so, why not just send it to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE right now?

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October 04, 2014, 07:27:30 AM
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For me... Bitcoin is just showing it's resilience... It's not a matter of price... Just utter gut to stay in the market.

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October 04, 2014, 07:47:03 AM
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Not a matter of belief, it's a matter of how low does it need to get for businesses to notice that nobody is spending their devalued BTC anymore, and stop immediately converting to fiat (which devalues BTC with every market dump).

Will people still keep spending their BTC they bought for $1000 when the exchange rate drops to fucking $0.01? If so, why not just send it to 1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE right now?

I thought the problem was epic daily miner dumps and decreasing difficulty?

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October 04, 2014, 07:52:40 AM
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i would be sad at 1 USD  Tongue

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October 04, 2014, 07:59:13 AM
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1 BTC = 1 USD   Grin

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shawshankinmate37927
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October 04, 2014, 08:00:00 AM
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On October 3 the price of bitcoin touched $360, marking a low for 2014. The week before, venture capitalist Tim Draper – the winner of the giant government bitcoin auction that saw Draper come into possession of 0.25 percent of all BTC – went on Fox Business to dispel any fears that the ride was over. Well, not only that the ride wasn’t over. That it was just beginning.

Was he there to dispel fears, or was he there because they wanted to ask him what he's doing with his money?

In talking up the currency, he said “I am still predicting, Bitcoin, $10,000 in three years. It is a hedge against a lot of fiat currency, because it is a new way of transferring cash throughout the world in a much more efficient way. And Bitcoin has a created a whole infrastructure of many, many companies some of which came out of Boost the incubator. And those companies are creating this whole new culture, and this whole new way of thinking.”

By "talking up" do you mean "explaining why he bought"?

It’s a lot of justification for the big headline: bitcoin will hit $10,000 in three years. Why would Draper say this?

Because he believes it and because he understands economics?

He certainly might believe bitcoin is going to be the future, to be sure.

That's the impression I get.

But the reason he’s going on Fox Business to make this claim is because he has a sizable stake in it. He needs people to believe bitcoin will increase 30 times in value. Or people will lose interest and sell, and he’ll lose even more millions (in USD) than he already has – Draper bought in when bitcoin was worth almost twice as much, and is on the hook for roughly $9 million in losses in just four months.

I don't think he called up Fox News and said, "Put me on the air, I need to pump up the price of BTC."  I think they contacted him and said, "We'd like to ask you on air about your bitcoin purchase."

What do you mean by a "sizeable stake"?  What's his net worth?  Is BTC 1% of his portfolio?  What happens if people don't agree with him?  Does he lose 1% of his portfolio?  You do realize that BTC has had these volatile price swings in the past, right?  This is nothing new.

He's a venture capitalist.  He's not afraid of taking a calculated risk.

This is not to point out the obvious, the Draper is a businessman and he needs his investment to make money.

Does he?  You think he's gonna be wiped out and living under a bridge if Bitcoin fails?

Rather, it raises a question indirectly that a lot of bitcoin diehards need to ask themselves: is there any price point that would cause you to pull your money out of bitcoin?

You mean convert sound, honest money back into fiat?  Do you not understand how the fiat scam works?

Regardless, I don't think the "diehards" have bet everything on Bitcoin.

A lot of people, even ideologues invested in bitcoin as an entirely new paradigm that can upset the accepted fiat currency system, are simultaneously hoping to make a little money with their bitcoin stake. While they might not spend a lot of time thinking about price, the major players like Draper certainly care. As does a large swath of the market. Because there’s the possibility of BTC going to $10,000 in three years.

I don't think Draper is as short-sighted as you seem to think he is.  I think he bought with the intention to hold them for a few years, regardless of what happens in a few weeks.

"...Make a little money..."?  Bitcoin is money.

And there’s also the possibility of it going to $1. Many of bitcoin’s ideological adherents tend to hold no matter what. But does that mean there is literally no point from which to cut losses and sell out? What if bitcoin goes back to that penny trading range? What if it stays there for a year? For five years? How long will you buy and buy and buy at a continual loss? Until you die?

Certainly a possibility.  But has there ever been a better form of money in human history?

I've already sold some.  It's a free ride from here on out, and no I will be holding BTC until the day I die and will pass them on to my posterity.  Furthermore, I don't care what the price does over the short term.  I'm looking 10, 20, and 30 years down the road.

If bitcoins go back to pennies, I'll happily buy thousands of them, but that doesn't mean 100% of my money will be BTC, just a fraction that I'm comfortable with.  That fraction is different for everyone.  For some it's over 50% of their assets, for others it's 0%.

People like Draper can talk a big game, but they are beholden to their investors, same as any business. And make no mistake, Draper has a point where he will cut his losses and move on.

I'm pretty sure he understands the risks involved with Bitcoin.  Those who invest with him also understand they are investing in risky ventures.


Bitcoin could go to $10,000 and stay there, though it’s highly unlikely. It could also go to five cents and stay there (also highly unlikely). But one way or another, bitcoin players need to answer the question: am I willing to go down with the ship even if Draper doesn’t?

Bitcoin could also go to $1,000,000.  It all depends on supply and demand.

Yes, unless some fatal flaw is discovered with Bitcoin.



No thanks, probably nothing intelligent going on there.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."   - Henry Ford
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October 04, 2014, 08:16:26 AM
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Price is down, yes. Things aren't quite right and I posted why elsewhere but this is all growing pains.

In the end I think it'll be fine. I'm still believing here.

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Coinbuddy
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October 04, 2014, 08:26:26 AM
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Every just says bitcoin will hit 10000$ but it would gonna happen.

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October 04, 2014, 08:29:58 AM
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bitcoins value is not down. just sheeples belief that following exchanges price, where only 200 coins can send the market cap from $5billion-$6billion is the failing.

once proper exchanges such as the ETF's start running, then with the transparency of accounting and the ability of whales to buy publicly. the price will jump.

as for how low will it go. well at the moment with the sheeple perception of crappy php exchanges.. it can go anywhre. all i know is that when people start buying bread, milk and bakd beans at $1000 a shot (FIAT crash Zimbabwe style) bitcoins will still buy me many loaves of bread as oppose to hoarding value in a bank in the form of fiat. which loses true value

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October 04, 2014, 10:05:42 AM
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$0.00 Because at that point you couldn't use it.
Of course I won't sell you my bitcoin for that money, I will prefer to keep them for collection Tongue
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October 04, 2014, 10:25:27 AM
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Back in 1996 I bought 18 rookie cards for $49 each.
(all of my paper route savings)

They went up to $58 and I bought special hard plastic cases and put them in a secret stash above my closet.
I totally forgot about the until last summer.

I looked them up.
They are now worth $3 each.

Screw football cards.
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October 04, 2014, 02:07:15 PM
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Just my two cents....

The price can go all the way down to $1 and I'll still be a bitcoin junky/fan. I think the problem with bitcoin is that to many see it as an investment and not as the currency its supposed to be. Yes it does offer an investment angle due to the price expectations within a couple of years and because of that I do hold a bit in storage but other than that I use it as a currency and will do so for as long its around as there is no equal.

I can zip thousands around the world without leaving my desk, without standing in line and essentially begging to send my own money somewhere else. Ever been in a country with draconian exchange controls? If not then you will not understand the freedom bitcoin brings.

So as said, it can hit $1 and I'll still be a fan. Yes I might lose on its value but then again, I'm presently saving thousands in bank fees for transfers.

If you want to be an investor then be one and learn to ride the ebbs and the flows and stop complaining about every dollar bitcoin goes down. If you cannot stomach this then go back to fiat and or buy some stocks.
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October 04, 2014, 02:19:15 PM
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If it goes to a dollar, I'd be happy to stop believing and then buy three hundred Bitcoins then. It would be truly glorious - don't you think so?
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October 04, 2014, 02:41:10 PM
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The OP got it wrong. Price doesn't matter.
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October 04, 2014, 02:52:51 PM
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The price is irrelevant. It distracts and paradoxically miscasts the long-term prospects for bitcoin.
Ignore. Make your play in the ecosystem. Don't check price every day.

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