This is why the price of bitcoin is dropping

[KenJackson]

In recent days and months, the dollar exchange rate for a bitcoin has been dropping.  As I write, it's gently bounced off today's low of $325/bitcoin.  Ouch.

I have a theory why.

Soon, two bitcoin commodity ETFs will be approved, COIN and BIT.  There is nothing any ETF sponsor would love more than to have their new ETF be immediately profitable.  But how do you affect that?

To do that, they would need to manipulate the bitcoin price lower so it has room to grow fast in the first few months of operation.  And how would they manipulate it lower?  One way would be to discretely dump bitcoins.  To do that, you have to have a lot of bitcoins.  As it happens, COIN is sponsored by the Winkelvoss twins who claimed at one point to own 1% of all bitcoins yet mined.  That's a lot.

So there you have it.  The bitcoin price may be being manipulated low pending the approval of one of the new bitcoin ETFs, after which it will shoot upward.

You've been warned.  Get 'em while they're cheap!

[shanem]

I agree with you.
Time to buy bitcoin now

[mczarnek]

Very interesting theory.. do you have an wallet address(es) linked to the Winklevoss to back this up?

Though even if 1% of the BTC were dumped, that'd be $50 million, we've been getting volumes per day higher than this.  True that they only need to dump enough so that others will panic and dump themselves.. but I'm not sure I buy it.

Plus don't they still need a large number of BTC to back the ETF funds?

[hyphymikey]

Everyone has their "reason"

The only thing that matters is if you are buying thanks to the "manipulation" or selling thanks to the "manipulation"

It is likely that we will never know why, therefore I just buy.

[mkc]

Will BIT and COIN be traded on exchange soon?  When will that be?

[moriartybitcoin]

they will be traded on my stock exchange at https://BitSpeculate.com .. we already offer a Bitcoin hedge fund AND a cryptocurrency hedge fund

[bitsalame]

Yeah? And how are they going to manipulate a market they are yet not participating?

[GenTarkin]

I highly doubt thats the reason OP....


There hasnt been news on ETF's in months now... at least that Ive seen. Correct me if Im wrong.

I think its panic sellers & megamines dumping which Im fine with. Once we hit around $200 many miners, small time, medium farms & small farms will start powering down their crap. Once that happens its lower diffs for all of us. Expect this to happen even moreso once we hit sub $200 down to $100, it will be glorious.
Asic production will come to a halt & manufacturers will have dried up substantially under $100 ... the way it should be.

Bitcoin has a long road ahead of it at this point. The foundation is still being laid for adoption & general use.
The way I see it, we are just finished w/ the .com bubble of Bitcoin, now begins the true growth which is longer but more mature.

That is, unless USD completely implodes on itself in the next year taking out other major world currencies with it, then Bitcoin will easily hit the moon for that reason alone.
But, I have a feeling USD will take another 10 years, at least, before it reaches that.

So, heres to keeping the faith in Bitcoin alive as we enter its next era of true innovation 'beneath the radar' of press & hype and all this bullshit weve seen this year.

[KenJackson]

BitSpeculate?  Interesting.

Actually, ETFs BIT and COIN will be available from any stock broker.  Schwab, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Scottrade, etc.  The point is to allow pedestrians to get the benefit of bitcoin's volatility without having a CoinBase, BTCe or other account.  They'll not only be able to buy bitcoins as shares, but also sell short and buy and sell options.

There hasnt been news on ETF's in months now... at least that Ive seen. Correct me if Im wrong.

There doesn't need to be news.  It's all in motion--they're just waiting on the SEC to shuffle papers.  But while they wait, don't you think they're at least tempted to dump a little?

Interesting theory about the miner panic.

That is, unless USD completely implodes on itself in the next year taking out other major world currencies with it, then Bitcoin will easily hit the moon for that reason alone.
But, I have a feeling USD will take another 10 years, at least, before it reaches that.

That's a different topic, but I don't think it will take 10 years.  Six years at most, but probably next year.  I recommend a fascinating book on that topic: The Death of the Dollar.

[bornil267645]

I totally agree with you. this price scarcity is completely planned.so how the Bitcoin community counter it,that's the question. Well for most of us,the answer is simple,we buy in or preserve our Bitcoin and when the price pick up, we sell. My question is,"IS THAT GOOD FOR BITCOIN COMMUNITY? "

[googlemaster1]

GenTarkin.... great post.  Although I hope its the megamines that shut off all their inefficient shit and just run with all the new stuff.  The smalltime miners will keep running at a loss (I mine with about 5 th/s, I'll absorb the power costs until the blockchain explodes if I have to).

I think a lot of small time miners feel the same.  Whats an extra $30-200 on their bimonthly power bill anyway?  Unless the amount of bitcoin I mine is equal to peanuts, I'm going to keep running even if it costs me more in power.  I hope people with similar amounts of hashing power feel the same.  People running full nodes and mining on small pools and p2pools have a desire for a healthy market.  I hope they endure.  I will.

[TheButterZone]

This topic, like the trillions of others posted in the non-Speculation subforums, is why the price of bitcoin is dropping. Fuck's sake.

[negafen]

When it comes to market, there is no such thing as manipulation.

Big players can get price to go up or down since they have a great deal of money, but this shouldn't be considered price manipulation.

[Q7]

In recent days and months, the dollar exchange rate for a bitcoin has been dropping.  As I write, it's gently bounced off today's low of $325/bitcoin.  Ouch.

I have a theory why.

Soon, two bitcoin commodity ETFs will be approved, COIN and BIT.  There is nothing any ETF sponsor would love more than to have their new ETF be immediately profitable.  But how do you affect that?

To do that, they would need to manipulate the bitcoin price lower so it has room to grow fast in the first few months of operation.  And how would they manipulate it lower?  One way would be to discretely dump bitcoins.  To do that, you have to have a lot of bitcoins.  As it happens, COIN is sponsored by the Winkelvoss twins who claimed at one point to own 1% of all bitcoins yet mined.  That's a lot.

So there you have it.  The bitcoin price may be being manipulated low pending the approval of one of the new bitcoin ETFs, after which it will shoot upward.

You've been warned.  Get 'em while they're cheap!

Makes sense. Any other supporting facts to backup your prediction? If that's the case we should see a rebound pretty soon. The only thing I doubt is that btc market cap is too huge to be manipulated

[becoin]

And how would they manipulate it lower?  One way would be to discretely dump bitcoins.  To do that, you have to have a lot of bitcoins. 

Not necessarily. You can already sell bitcoins without even having a single satoshi. To do that you can use margin deposits and leverage - 1:2, 1:5 or 1:10. In other words you can place $10K in one such exchange and sell bitcoins worth $100K without having a single satoshi. If you meet somebody on the street that tries to sell you something they don't have undoubtedly you'll call them crooks and swindlers, but in the nowadays "regulated" financial world such crooks and swindlers are blessed as "liquidity providers"...

Another way of doing the same is by using the newly (hastily) licensed bitcoin swap exchanges like TerraExchange. You swap your dollars for bitcoins for a certain period at predetermined exchange rates. But why would you want to have bitcoins for 6 or 12 months instead of dollars? The only reason is to sell them hoping to buy them back with a profit when time comes to pay them back. But make no mistake, the final result of such swaps (profit or loss) is always cleared in $.

This is nothing new. Such price suppression schemes are applied to gold, silver, oil for a long long time. What happens if price doesn't want to go lower? You simply increase the leverage or margin collateral! That is why the leverage in the derivatives portfolio of big banks is currently at record levels! What happens if increasing leverage and margin collateral still doesn't work and you make a loss? Well, Fed or ECB or BOE or whatever central bank print additional money only for you at zero interest rate or even at negative (ECB). They are the too-big-to-fail guys and their cronies. For them bitcoin price is just a joke to play with...

[franky1]

you guys are forming opinions without even looking at volume levels or order histories,

most of the exchanges are playing with bots with multiple orders of just 0.011btc (under $4) & 0.0212 and a wall order usually around 200 coins max.
(these order amounts have not changed in a few weeks, its the same couple 'players' that are messing with prices)

the mega mines and whales are not even touching the crappy exchanges.(the majority is sold directly and privately)

hardly any coin is actually related to a proper bank deposit/withdrawal, its simple shrimp and small fish playing around with numbers on a website, not trading to enter or exit btc/fiat.

will you sheeple stop valuing bitcoins 13milion coin cap based on mysql database movements of 200 coins. when ETF's open, with their requirements to keep accurate accounting and transparency, you will see true value indicators return, but right now localbitcoins due to it being direct real fiat for bitcoin trading is the closest thing.

and lastly if your going to trade on localbitcoins, trade on numbers based on cost of mining, and based on the average price demand of localbitcoins. DO NOT continue to be sheeple and follow the exchanges.

its literally turning into mtgox december-january where little to none deposits or withdrawals were occuring and people soon learned to ignore mtgox when it tanked to $100 whilst everyone else was trading at $450-$650

[LiteCoinGuy]

@ topic:

i agree with you that i would buy bitcoin now.

but i dont think the market is down for that reason dude. the 2 ETFs are launching in 6-20 months maybe. alot of time.


@franky1

good point

[TradeSmart]

Thanks for the tip KenJackson. Will order that book now.

[Kprawn]

you guys are forming opinions without even looking at volume levels or order histories,

most of the exchanges are playing with bots with multiple orders of just 0.011btc (under $4) & 0.0212 and a wall order usually around 200 coins max.
(these order amounts have not changed in a few weeks, its the same couple 'players' that are messing with prices)

the mega mines and whales are not even touching the crappy exchanges.(the majority is sold directly and privately)

hardly any coin is actually related to a proper bank deposit/withdrawal, its simple shrimp and small fish playing around with numbers on a website, not trading to enter or exit btc/fiat.

will you sheeple stop valuing bitcoins 13milion coin cap based on mysql database movements of 200 coins. when ETF's open, with their requirements to keep accurate accounting and transparency, you will see true value indicators return, but right now localbitcoins due to it being direct real fiat for bitcoin trading is the closest thing.

and lastly if your going to trade on localbitcoins, trade on numbers based on cost of mining, and based on the average price demand of localbitcoins. DO NOT continue to be sheeple and follow the exchanges.

its literally turning into mtgox december-january where little to none deposits or withdrawals were occuring and people soon learned to ignore mtgox when it tanked to $100 whilst everyone else was trading at $450-$650

So what would counter this?

Price manipulation like this, is hurting new Bitcoin business innovators now, for the temporary gain of a few profits on exchanges.

Satoshi got fed up with banks and financial institutions doing this, and he/they/she created the bitcoin protocol to counter them, now they doing the same with bitcoin on these exchanges.

How FU is that?

[franky1]

So what would counter this?

1. stop giving a damned crap about the crappy exchange prices
2. only trade on localbitcoins based on your costs and demand (never sell at a loss)
3. DONT base your localbitcoin valuations on the exchange movements
4. STOP GIVING A DAMNED CRAP ABOUT CRAPPY EXCHANGES
5. if you have coins on crappy exchanges NEVER EVER EVER SELL AT A LOSS.
6. if you have coins on an exchange GET THEM OUT

they may seem like repeats of the same points. but thats becaus the solution is easy, but still requires explaining multiple times to get into peoples heads.

if your trading for profit then play with the bitcoin/altcoins leave the btc/fiat for the people wanting real bitcoin/real fiat.

Price manipulation like this, is hurting new Bitcoin business innovators now, for the temporary gain of a few profits on exchanges.

Satoshi got fed up with banks and financial institutions doing this, and he/they/she created the bitcoin protocol to counter them, now they doing the same with bitcoin on these exchanges.

How FU is that?

i know, and thats why we should be ignoring crappy exchanges. the only true value trading is on private swaps, bitcoin-otc and localbitcoins. where proper real bitcoins are swapped for real bank account amounts.. no mysql database involvement to manipulate