Is the US economy going up or down?

[tripppn]

Seems to me that the bubble is still being inflated.  It's just a matter of time that it bursts and this time will be even worse then before.  The day that happens bitcoin will soar!!!  Who knows when that will happen though.  My guess is within 2 years. 

Life is pretty good right now in the US economy at least by the numbers.  If your looking for a job like me you might think differently.

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[BTCmoons]

QE ending implies that the US economy is going up.

The effects of changes to monetary policy can take up to two years to be reflected in the economy and in inflation rates. The federal reserve is seeing signs that the economy is picking up at a rate enough to support higher interest rates, however they do not know for sure this is the case. If they raise interest rates now then they are guessing that the economy will be strong in ~2 years

[botany]

Seems to me that the bubble is still being inflated.  It's just a matter of time that it bursts and this time will be even worse then before.  The day that happens bitcoin will soar!!!  Who knows when that will happen though.  My guess is within 2 years. 

Life is pretty good right now in the US economy at least by the numbers.  If your looking for a job like me you might think differently.

It is a global asset bubble, not just the US. Most of the dollars that the US Fed has printed has found its way into emerging markets.

[scarsbergholden]

Seems to me that the bubble is still being inflated.  It's just a matter of time that it bursts and this time will be even worse then before.  The day that happens bitcoin will soar!!!  Who knows when that will happen though.  My guess is within 2 years. 

Life is pretty good right now in the US economy at least by the numbers.  If your looking for a job like me you might think differently.

It is a global asset bubble, not just the US. Most of the dollars that the US Fed has printed has found its way into emerging markets.

Most assets have not made their way to emerging markets, although a lot of extra money has found it's way here. The vast majority of the money is on bank balance sheets via excess reserves. Above that much of it has found it's way into stock and bond markets which is creating a potential bubble in the bond markets especially

[pattu1]

Seems to me that the bubble is still being inflated.  It's just a matter of time that it bursts and this time will be even worse then before.  The day that happens bitcoin will soar!!!  Who knows when that will happen though.  My guess is within 2 years. 

Life is pretty good right now in the US economy at least by the numbers.  If your looking for a job like me you might think differently.

It is a global asset bubble, not just the US. Most of the dollars that the US Fed has printed has found its way into emerging markets.

Most assets have not made their way to emerging markets, although a lot of extra money has found it's way here. The vast majority of the money is on bank balance sheets via excess reserves. Above that much of it has found it's way into stock and bond markets which is creating a potential bubble in the bond markets especially

The excess money hasn't resulted in people and companies borrowing more, to take advantage of low interest rates. So the purpose of QE has been defeated, in a sense.

[FattyMcButterpants]

The excess money hasn't resulted in people and companies borrowing more, to take advantage of low interest rates. So the purpose of QE has been defeated, in a sense.

The purpose of QE was to get people to take on more risks, which they have, as can been seen by the fact that asset prices have risen sharply since QE has started. I would also argue that both companies and people have borrowed money they otherwise would not have borrowed (or at least refinanced existing debt) as many companies have been borrowing money at record low interest rates and many consumers have been refinancing debt (the lower payments that results in refinancing can be used to purchase additional goods/services in the economy)

[BRE]

The average American is indeed sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling even.

But for US people , now they must prepare for the crash , If they brace their selves properly and control the impact, they will survive it.

[faince222]

US economy is going slowly down, consider that Putin one months ago has sold all of USA title for a big quantity of money. This title was converted in gold  . Anyway i consider that China in the next future (1-2 years) will be the biggest and powerful country of the world.

[santaClause]

he drop in U.S. workforce participation since the financial crisis is largely due to the aging of the American population and will not reverse even if labor markets improve, this and the fact works are getting automatized and you get what we have.

I agree that the drop in the labor force participation rate is a serious problem for the US. It will prevent the US from realizing it's full potential and is creating an unknown level of slack in the labor market, which will make it very difficult for policy markers to know when to adjust monitory policy as it is not known when/if these people will return to the workforce

[DhaniBoy]

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.

Doesn't matter, all these macroeconomic data improvements only satisfy the wealthy, most people will go on wit their shitty lives.
Economic growth has nothing to do with living conditions in a country. Economic growth is irrelevant. Employment rates and personal debt rates matter

course of a country's economic growth is very influential in the welfare and growth of the business sector in the country, with a growing economy will give rise to new entrepreneurs that will improve the welfare of the people in that country, with the emergence of new entrepreneurs will open new jobs, hopefully with economic growth will be in line with the increase in social welfare ...

[wenben]

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.

Down in inflated adjusted term, up in not adjusted term.

[santaClause]

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.

Doesn't matter, all these macroeconomic data improvements only satisfy the wealthy, most people will go on wit their shitty lives.
Economic growth has nothing to do with living conditions in a country. Economic growth is irrelevant. Employment rates and personal debt rates matter

course of a country's economic growth is very influential in the welfare and growth of the business sector in the country, with a growing economy will give rise to new entrepreneurs that will improve the welfare of the people in that country, with the emergence of new entrepreneurs will open new jobs, hopefully with economic growth will be in line with the increase in social welfare ...

Generally speaking the rate of economic growth has a positive coloration with the overall standard of living in a country. This is due to the fact that as GDP rises, more goods and services will have been produced (this is the definition of GDP) so more labor hours will have to have been used to produce the additional goods/services. More labor hours means more income for the working class.

[vvv8]

The banks inflated the economy with funny money last time around.

This time it's the Federal money that has inflated the economy.

Sit back and wait for the crash because it's coming.

Another indicator would be real wages (private sector especially) - which haven't risen.

That would be a real sign of a growing economy.

This man speaks the truth ,

High debt ,

High unemployment ,

High Inflation of the dollar ,

BRICS & friends dropping the Dollar all together ,

The U.S will fall under this house of cards soon enough. The dollar has become a currency too weak, it cannot sustain the U.S economy anymore, and everyday that passes the inflation gets worse. Every passing day, people in the streets are realizing that prices are going up, yet their disposable income is the same or less . They are feeling the 'trick' , which allows them to wake up and realize that something is WRONG and getting worse.

[HWoodrow]

US economy going slowly down and will fall a lot,maybe in the next year we will se an increasing of the economy, but not now.

[TheLoser]

It's not just the US economy but the World. Yeah down short term or near term but in the long term, it's always going up.

[oprahwindfury]

The U.S. based economy is definitely going down. To get a good indication of this--just look at the current gas prices. Oil prices generally present a clear indicator of how well people think an economy is doing. Gas prices up = people using their cars to go to places to spend money, hence the demand for gas increases. Reverse that and you have the current trend that is happening right now.

This is an over-simplified explanation but if you want a better explanation just ask.

[aljunking]

It is still not that stable compared to NZ and AUS

[glendall]

It's hard for me to understand how we can fuck it up this badly for ourselves here in the united states. We have 300 million people in a gigantic country with good capabilities/minerals/strategic position.

People here could potentially become net producers for society and sustain themselves endlessly.

Even with climate change there will still be places suitable for agriculture. We have deserts and other places for all the wind power and solar. There is plenty of water (if we manage it correctly instead of spilling the majority of it onto grass and also evaporating it in the air in the process, (also spilling millions of gallons of it because someone pissed in it)).

We have huge forests, more good land than we know what to do with.


Perhaps we've left the corporations screw us over with no limit. The rich could be dethroned very easily, all we have to do is replace their stuff with our stuff. A new renaissance with 3-d printing coupled with ingenuity and knowledge to create working machines to replace anything. Where we choose wisely the corporations we deal with. Boycotting products that are created unethically and places that pay people bellow a minimum wage out of existence.

I see a lot of action taking place even now, but I don't know what to make of it. BTC is a step forward.

It wasn't a 'fuck up', it was a plan. If you let someone / some entity control your money supply, than they will divert it to themselves and their friends.  Doesn't matter if it's 150 AD or 2500 AD, this will always be the case.

The riches of the middle case, earned in part by the success of WW2 for America, over the last 50 years or so, has been diverted to the pockets of the extremely wealthy. This isn't my theory, any charts showing the concentration of wealth will show this.

We now live in a world where the biggest corporations pay less than 2% tax on their earnings, such as Starbucks, and profit billions; while the guy working at Starbucks pays closer to a tax rate of 40% and can barely cover his bills. We live in a world where the US dollar is the world reserve currency, and is created by private corporation lending money to itself. The debt can not be paid. This is not going to end well.

What's going to happen next? It's  a big cycle. Shit will get worse and worse, everyone will get poorer and poorer while the elites get richer and richer, until their is collapse or revolution and the cycle starts again.

[logocreator]

US economy goes down slowly. We do not know the real things, but US economy is based on wars and oil. If that would be stopped somehow then drop of economy will be more than obvious.

[paulsonnumismatics]

Is very interesting to notice that majority of bearish opinions come from US, while majority of bullish opinions are overseas.

The main drive for this is the shale oil revolution, which is being minimized in the public channels so US can take a huge leap forward. Meanwhile, EuroFlowers go riot because they think shale is going to poison the Milky Way.

The second drive is that while in Euroland, Russia and LatAm are driving towards a neo-socialism (which means rigid labour, low productivity, subsidies and general misery) US and some Asian countries are still waving the business friendly flag.

As some pointed here, Stock Market is useless. Its pretty disconnected from reality since 2010. But you will live much better the next 10 years in USA than in any euro country, thats a fact. And im under the blue starred flag...