Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm)

[NotLambchop]

On the other hand, if a few big players are controlling the direction, what would they want to do? Confuse people, probably. Make a potentially useful new tool look like it failed, make elliomancy look like a scientific procedure etc. Doesn't matter, as long as we are around or above the mining cost everything is solid imo.

If the nefarious big players exist & manipulate the market,
and if the "useful tool" fails to account for their nefarious acts,
how useful is the tool?

[Cablez]

But can any tool really predict the movements of organized nefarious players? Not likely unless they base their actions on some predetermined market criteria.  If a tool could do this then there wouldn't be many nefarious players as they would be owned.

The usefulness of this signals algorithm will only be apparent after the next bubble peak, if any. So I guess wait and see.

[oda.krell]

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

[windpath]

This was always presented as an experiment, don't beat yourself up about it... Thanks for sharing and I look forward to future updates....

[keystroke]

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

Don't feel bad! We were all free to evaluate the risks and the method used to perform the analysis. I for one trusted it because I thought your avatar was a unicorn but now I see it is just a horse with a carrot tied to its head.

[NotLambchop]

...don't beat yourself up about it...

^That.  You didn't mislead anyone.

[okthen]

Honestly, I regret ever posting this, especially in such a grandiose way ... "Wouldn't it be nice to trade like a whale? Why, now you can!" /Home Shopping Network.

I regret it, not so much because of the (possibly, likely) unprofitable signal it might yield, but because I've been reading up a bit on trading algorithms (nod to r/forex, some excellent posters in there), and it started to dawn on me how incredibly naive I was in writing up this method - first and foremost, for thinking I could avoid the problem that results from a low number of signals produced by the algorithm, and hence low confidence in the algorithm's results, by some handwavy 'independent reasons' that made me confident it is not overfitted.

I'll update, like I said I would, but more out of obligation and to give you guys a chance to make fun of it, like I mentioned on page 1.

Well, only time will tell how useful your algorithm is. Anyway, even if this time it means sell at a loss, it may still make you profit enough next time to make the loss irrelevant.

And please don't beat yourself up, because in any case this is once of the most interesting threads in Speculation these days

[oda.krell]

Should probably clarify:

I'm not beating myself up over misleading you guys... I wrote several times saying "it's an experiment". Plus, this board is full of wrong predictions presented with a lot more confidence, so I don't feel guilty in that sense

I am however pissed off at myself because, against my better knowledge, I somehow thought I can get away with the low number of trades over the history, and I plain ignored that I didn't manage to find a way to scale up the frequency like Ryn asked for right in the beginning. Big warning sign.

So, apologies for presenting sloppy methodology and being stubborn about it. That's the point I was trying to make.


EDIT: At its core, the mid-term momentum signal might even hold up. The problem is that the rest of the algorithm treats each of those signals as "new (mini) bubble incoming", based on nothing more than the 6 or so trade pairs it is trained on over gox+stamp's history, so instead of using the reversal of that time scale's momentum as a sell signal, the overall parameters are set to wait for the end of sustained rally that never happened.

[Wary]

Don't feel bad! We were all free to evaluate the risks and the method used to perform the analysis. I for one trusted it because I thought your avatar was a unicorn but now I see it is just a horse with a carrot tied to its head.

The truth even worse than that. It's not even a horse, it's a donkey! How could we be so blind???!!! And now we are ruined!!!        Oda.krell, don't feel bad about it. You are one of most responsible members of this forum and you always supply your hypotheses with tons of warnings. And these hypotheses are really insightful.

EDIT: OK, it's scientific sin you were talking about. Well, you haven't published the article, so the disaster didn't happen.  What's not on paper, doesn't exist.

[oda.krell]

Here we go:

Sell @311 on 2014-12-19

=> USD loss of ~16%


You decide what to do with it. I actually begin to think the signals come in too late (on both entry and exit), and I'm very sure the total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results. I'm trying to come up with a way to change that, but until then, as promised, I'll update the signals as is, until I manage to scale up the method to yield more data points.

[NotLambchop]

...total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results...

That's the beauty of long-term trading algorithms--the longer the term, the longer you won't know how useless they are

As opposed to high-frequency troll posters: Plenty of data points to conclude, with high confidence, just exactly how pointless the overall contribution is ^_^

[oda.krell]

...total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results...

That's the beauty of long-term trading algorithms--the longer the term, the longer you won't know how useless they are

As opposed to high-frequency troll posters: Plenty of data points to conclude, with high confidence, just exactly how pointless the overall contribution is ^_^

Post something else other than brony pics (like entry/exit points for trades, for example), and we'll talk

[bucktotal]

Here we go:

Sell @311 on 2014-12-19

=> USD loss of ~16%


You decide what to do with it. I actually begin to think the signals come in too late (on both entry and exit), and I'm very sure the total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results. I'm trying to come up with a way to change that, but until then, as promised, I'll update the signals as is, until I manage to scale up the method to yield more data points.

thats interesting. my last buy signal came a couple days earlier than yours, but i haven't flipped down yet. i guess it could happen at any moment. i also wouldn't go into this exercise expecting to get 100% correct signals. you could have a very +EV system being right far less than 50% of the time.

[oda.krell]

Here we go:

Sell @311 on 2014-12-19

=> USD loss of ~16%


You decide what to do with it. I actually begin to think the signals come in too late (on both entry and exit), and I'm very sure the total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results. I'm trying to come up with a way to change that, but until then, as promised, I'll update the signals as is, until I manage to scale up the method to yield more data points.

thats interesting. my last buy signal came a couple days earlier than yours, but i haven't flipped down yet. i guess it could happen at any moment. i also wouldn't go into this exercise expecting to get 100% correct signals. you could have a very +EV system being right far less than 50% of the time.

Absolutely right what you're saying.

But as I said above, it's not the bad trade that bothers me mainly (there was at least one of those in the backtest as well), but that there are simply too few trades in total. I will probably rewrite the conditions for the initial parameter search and rerun it to increase the trade frequency somewhat, not to the point of HFT, but not quite as few as I got now.

[NotLambchop]

...total no. of signals of this algorithm is simply too low to speak with much confidence about the results...

That's the beauty of long-term trading algorithms--the longer the term, the longer you won't know how useless they are

As opposed to high-frequency troll posters: Plenty of data points to conclude, with high confidence, just exactly how pointless the overall contribution is ^_^

Post something else other than brony pics (like entry/exit points for trades, for example), and we'll talk

I told you the very thing you yourself eventually concluded.  We talked about insufficient data points, maybe in another thread?  Or am I misremembering?

[oda.krell]

^ You did. But to keep with the original analogy, that's one profitable trade out of 1000s

Seriously though:

I'm ready to admit (and just did so above) that my algorithm is a lot more naively constructed than I realized at first, and needs some serious rewriting, but this was/is supposed to be an exercise in providing a signal that captures mid-term swings of the market -  so the real contest is if you can provide a better signal or not (I don't care if its algorithmic or pulled out of one's ass inner monkey).

And in that sense, Tzupy was doing a lot better than you, as he at least suggested that the 320-450 rally would be fully reversed - even though he didn't provide exact entry/exit points either.

[Tzupy]

I think I provided the exit point here:

It would be nice of oda.krell to post a notice about the indicator flipping to red.

I'm not sure why you think his indicator would have changed?

On the scale the indicator uses the market has been basically flat since the change to BTC.

Last time it flipped to red it was in July around the 23rd. I have a count by which the market is now in a similar position.

Also on the 15th, just before the dumps gained momentum:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.2300

[NotLambchop]

.@oda.krell, I never gave exact entry/exit points, because it can't be done in this market.  Past year+ market has been a totally different market from the one we all knew & loved.  As in qualitatively different.*  I stopped trading.
What I'm trying to say in too many words is you're wasting time with reading bird entrails to read BTC price.
And now you're asking me to do a better entrail reading than you

*Favorite Stalin quote:  "Quantity is a quality too."

[oda.krell]

I clicked that link and it opened my mail client.

You probably hacked my computer and stole my coinz 

[Tzupy]

I clicked that link and it opened my mail client.

You probably hacked my computer and stole my coinz  

PS. You were replying to NLC, not to me...