Does prob. of finding a solution for a block depend on its contents at all?

[jwputrl]

Am I right in thinking that a miner will have the same chance of finding a solution for a block, whatever transactions (or anything else) it contains?

I'm saying this as I assume it doesn't matter what the input into the hash is, the chances of getting a solution are the same, for a given difficulty level.

Thanks

[1713938803]

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[-ck]

No one can know with absolute certainty, and it is possible there is a variation depending on the input, but so far the evidence has pointed to it making absolutely no difference what the input is as to the chance of finding a block.

[jwputrl]

Thanks for reply ckolivas.  Is this uncertainty you refer to because nobody knows for sure how sha256 actually behaves?  So if a miner were to work that out it is possible they could select contents to increase chance of finding a solution, but if they don't they can't?  Pls feel free to point me somewhere else so i can educate myself.

[Spartan_Miner]

I noticed that when that BearWhale did that massive sell-off, duration times went up in a big way.  Was there a relation, or simply a coincidence? (I don't believe in coincidences)

Matt

[eleuthria]

Thanks for reply ckolivas.  Is this uncertainty you refer to because nobody knows for sure how sha256 actually behaves?  So if a miner were to work that out it is possible they could select contents to increase chance of finding a solution, but if they don't they can't?  Pls feel free to point me somewhere else so i can educate myself.

People do know how SHA256 behaves.  What we don't know is if someone out there has discovered a way to shortcut/cheat the SHA256 process without the rest of the world finding out.