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Author Topic: [CLOSING...] MOVETO.FUND - MoveTo Growth Fund  (Read 11435 times)
cytokine
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May 21, 2012, 09:11:28 PM
 #1

The fund is now closing
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cytokine
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May 27, 2012, 09:07:07 PM
 #2

Progress update

Here is the debug output:

Debug> updating GLBSE_TICKERS.lst

Debug> no dividends found for BTC
Debug> no dividends found for JLP
Debug> updating JLP-BMD.gdv
Debug> updating BITCOINTORRENTZ.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for ENJAN16
Debug> no dividends found for BM
Debug> updating BMMO.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for EN
Debug> updating BIT.INC.gdv
Debug> updating TYGRR.BOND-B.gdv
Debug> updating TYGRR.TECH.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for UBTC
Debug> no dividends found for CRYPTOL
Debug> no dividends found for CC
Debug> no dividends found for CIB-SOLUTIONS
Debug> updating MU.gdv
Debug> updating COGNITIVE.gdv
Debug> updating IBB.gdv
Debug> updating M.ETF.gdv
Debug> updating MPOE.ETF.gdv
Debug> updating BTCSYN.gdv
Debug> updating RSM.gdv
Debug> updating MERGEDMINING.gdv
Debug> updating FPGA.CONTRACT.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for SATOSHISDAEMON.HORSE
Debug> no dividends found for CHEAPERINBITCOINS-STOCKS
Debug> updating PUREMINING.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for BST
Debug> updating BTCWEB.gdv
Debug> updating SS.gdv
Debug> updating TYGRR.BOT.gdv
Debug> updating FPGA-EU.gdv
Debug> updating AA.gdv
Debug> updating BITBOND.gdv
Debug> updating BFLS.gdv
Debug> updating GIGAMINING.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for BTCMC
Debug> updating YABMC.gdv
Debug> updating TCC.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for BFLS.FUTURES
Debug> no dividends found for CANMINE
Debug> updating PPT.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for PPT.A
Debug> updating BTC-MINING.gdv
Debug> updating ABM.gdv
Debug> updating MATH.gdv
Debug> updating FPGA-IPCORE-DEV.gdv
Debug> updating JAH.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for RUGATU
Debug> updating BDK.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for PPT.B
Debug> no dividends found for ANTI-PIRATE
Debug> no dividends found for PPT.C
Debug> updating ZIP.A.gdv
Debug> updating ZETA-MINING.gdv
Debug> updating TEEK.A.gdv
Debug> updating TEEK.B.gdv
Debug> updating BDK.BND.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for GOLD
Debug> no dividends found for SILVER
Debug> no dividends found for PPT.D
Debug> updating TICKER.gdv
Debug> updating PLATINUM.gdv
Debug> updating RAREEARTH.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for DMC
Debug> no dividends found for REBATE
Debug> updating TYGRR.BOND-A.gdv
Debug> updating BIOETHANOL.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for GREEN
Debug> updating PPT.DIV.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for JTGB
Debug> no dividends found for IMPACT
Debug> no dividends found for PPT.E
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE
Debug> no dividends found for BMF
Debug> updating 007.gdv
Debug> no dividends found for MINING
Debug> no dividends found for NONVERBA
Debug> no dividends found for MOORE
Debug> no dividends found for TYGRR.BOND-P
Debug> no dividends found for ABSORB.1.4-6.LONG
Debug> no dividends found for ABSORB.1.4-6.SHORT
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.TYGRR.BOND-B.LONG
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.TYGRR.BOND-B.SHORT
Debug> no dividends found for FZB.A
Debug> no dividends found for FOO.PPPPT
Debug> no dividends found for BIB.PIRATE
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.TEEK.B.LONG
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.TEEK.B.SHORT
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.GIGAMINING.LONG
Debug> no dividends found for HEDGE.GIGAMINING.SHORT

Debug> updating GLBSE_TRADES.lst
Debug> recent_id: 206852516879679488
Debug> No new trades found.
Sukrim
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May 27, 2012, 09:21:42 PM
 #3

Do you plan on open sourcing parts of this stuff? Fetching statistics etc. for example would do no harm to your business in any way and your proprietory algorithm can be capsuled away in a small class/config file somewhere maybe...

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
cytokine
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May 27, 2012, 10:07:58 PM
 #4

Do you plan on open sourcing parts of this stuff? Fetching statistics etc. for example would do no harm to your business in any way and your proprietory algorithm can be capsuled away in a small class/config file somewhere maybe...

In the near future I do not plan to release the source code, since it gives competitors an edge in the very thin market right now for GLBSE funds. However, in the more distant future I probably will release some of the code (it's very simple code anyway) since an open source platform for GLBSE-based trading and backtesting would certainly be something that would benefit everyone.
friedcat
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May 28, 2012, 05:54:17 AM
 #5

Assume the average coupon/face rate of mining bonds at this moment is 1.4% per week. Then MOVETO.FUND could have the expected return rate of 1.4%*2-0.75%=2.05% per week by just holding a bunch of mining bonds and do no trading at all. If you decide to be more risk tolerated and do some trading, it could be much more.

However, it all depends on how MOVETO.BOND sells. BDK.BND pays 1% per week and is issued by a forum member who already established his fame. Its current market cap has not exceeded 3,000 BTC. If I were you, I will consider 1,000 BTC by selling MOVETO.BOND to be very very lucky, because both the interest rates and existing credits of BDK.BND are better than MOVETO.BOND.

So: Are you OK with starting small? Could you still operate well without a fully deployed 2x leverage? If MOVETO.BOND doesn't sell well, then MOVETO.FUND will probably also not, because investors know that your fund relies on leverages.

I guess you have considered them all already. But I still hope my questions could help you with a something like a plan-B if things don't turn out to be perfect.

cytokine
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May 28, 2012, 09:11:17 AM
 #6

So: Are you OK with starting small? Could you still operate well without a fully deployed 2x leverage? If MOVETO.BOND doesn't sell well, then MOVETO.FUND will probably also not, because investors know that your fund relies on leverages.

Thanks for the feedback; this is very useful information.

  • Yes, leverage is 100% optional. If I can sell bonds to boost returns, great; if not, that's OK too. The main point of having the split between the fund and bonds is to give investors more options: use the fund if you like risk, or use the bonds if you want a lower return while offloading a portion of direct equity ownership risk onto others.
  • I have upped the interest rate on margin bonds to 1%/week per your suggestion in order to be competitive with other similar offerings.
  • Regarding short-term buying and selling - right now after looking at the trade logs, I can quickly see that there is virtually no liquidity on the GLBSE, so we're going to have to stick to long-term plays.
  • Regarding bootstrapping the fund - I already have a good chunk of BTC that I am personally investing to get me started when I am finished with the backend code.

Thanks,
-cyto
cytokine
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May 28, 2012, 12:13:22 PM
 #7

Update:

I removed the MOVETO.BOND offering (and modified the OP to exclude it) for the following reasons:

(1) There's not enough interest in low-rate/low-risk bonds at the present time
(2) There's not enough capacity on the GLBSE to absorb the extra capital ATM, so aggressive reinvestment makes more sense than paying out margin rates
(3) It's easier / less headache
(4) I can achieve higher returns by modifying the desired risk level inherent in the investment strategy rather than utilizing leverage

Thanks,
-cyto
cytokine
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May 28, 2012, 11:43:48 PM
 #8

I've been coding away all day today, and am proud to announce that the database and analysis code are completed, so in terms of execution, we are ready to rock and roll right after the IPO!
cytokine
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May 29, 2012, 08:15:17 PM
 #9

A bunch of updates:

I've been spending today (and plan to spend tomorrow and the next day) reviewing code and resolving bugs. Today I found a minor bug in one of my calculations which I fixed; it did not have a large effect however. Specifically, while constructing price bars of various frequencies from the trade data, one of the frequencies had corrupt data.

Another detail I want to mention is that the "database" is really just a collection of text files at the moment. I update them every day, so over time it will grow as more trades occur, but eventually I will use a real database. Right now, however, there is so little data that text files are sufficient.

Finally, I got a GLBSE contract together that Nefario agrees is good for the fund, here is a copy:

(0) Each IPO share represents a 1 BTC investment in the fund.
(1) The fund trades and invests solely in securities on the GLBSE.
(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.
(3) Dividends are paid out monthly, on the first of the month.
(4) 40% of earnings are paid out as dividends, 40% are reinvested for
fund growth, and 20% are paid out as fees to the fund operator.
(5) The fund operator will buy-back shares once per month upon request ( after dividends are paid ) to ensure liquidity for exiting MOVETO.FUND. Each
share is valued at (1 / # shares) * fund_portfolio_value minus 1% to
cover redemption expenses.
(6) New shares may be issued at any time at (1 / # shares) *
fund_portfolio_value price to ensure liquidity for entering MOVETO.FUND

--> Contract updated prior to IPO, please see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82869.msg931614#msg931614
cytokine
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May 30, 2012, 08:22:40 PM
 #10

A couple updates today:

cytokine
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May 30, 2012, 10:49:16 PM
 #11

5/30/2012 - CONTRACT UPDATED PRIOR TO IPO such that dividends are automatically reinvested into the fund, which is how most hedge funds operate. This ensures the highest possible performance for investors, as well as making MOVETO.FUND a "set it and forget it" type of investment, where clients are not continually having to reinvest their own dividends. (It also has the side effect of making the paperwork easier for everyone, because investors that continually request new shares in order to reinvest their dividends would be very difficult for me to accommodate.)

Here is the final contract:

(0) Each IPO share represents a 1 BTC investment in the fund.
(1) The fund trades and invests solely in securities on the GLBSE.
(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.
(3) 80% of earnings are reinvested for fund growth, and 20% are paid out as fees to the fund operator. Fees are paid once a month on the first of the month.
(4) The fund operator will buy-back shares on the first of every month upon request to ensure liquidity for exiting MOVETO.FUND. Each share is valued at (1 / # shares) * fund_portfolio_value minus 1% to cover redemption expenses.
(5) New shares may be issued at any time at (1 / # shares) *
fund_portfolio_value price to ensure liquidity for entering MOVETO.FUND

I have notified Nefario of these changes so hopefully the IPO page will change shortly. Naturally after the first share is sold the contract cannot be modified, so I want to make sure I get it right. It's also possible Nefario will require that the IPO be postponed somewhat due this modification.

Either way, I will keep you posted. Take care.
-cyto
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May 31, 2012, 11:36:53 AM
 #12

5/30/2012 - CONTRACT UPDATED PRIOR TO IPO such that dividends are automatically reinvested into the fund, which is how most hedge funds operate. This ensures the highest possible performance for investors, as well as making MOVETO.FUND a "set it and forget it" type of investment, where clients are not continually having to reinvest their own dividends. ( It also has the side effect of making the paperwork easier for everyone, because investors that continually request new shares in order to reinvest their dividends would be very difficult for me to accommodate. )

Here is the final contract:

(0) Each IPO share represents a 1 BTC investment in the fund.
(1) The fund trades and invests solely in securities on the GLBSE.
(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.
(3) 80% of earnings are reinvested for fund growth, and 20% are paid out as fees to the fund operator. Fees are paid once a month on the first of the month.
(4) The fund operator will buy-back shares on the first of every month upon request to ensure liquidity for exiting MOVETO.FUND. Each share is valued at (1 / # shares ) * fund_portfolio_value minus 1% to cover redemption expenses.
(5) New shares may be issued at any time at (1 / # shares ) *
fund_portfolio_value price to ensure liquidity for entering MOVETO.FUND

I have notified Nefario of these changes so hopefully the IPO page will change shortly. Naturally after the first share is sold the contract cannot be modified, so I want to make sure I get it right. It's also possible Nefario will require that the IPO be postponed somewhat due this modification.

Either way, I will keep you posted. Take care.
-cyto

It's closer and closer to the fee structure of the "real-world" hedge funds now. Good to know that at least you don't charge an extra 2% of the deposits like other hedge funds do. Grin

There's a potential risk for you however. If there's a panic buy-back demand with a high volume, you will lose a lot of money when you liquidate your position, considering the low liquidity of GLBSE.

cytokine
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May 31, 2012, 08:00:26 PM
 #13

There's a potential risk for you however. If there's a panic buy-back demand with a high volume, you will lose a lot of money when you liquidate your position, considering the low liquidity of GLBSE.

This is a really good point. I plan to buy-back the shares with my own money though anyway if people want to sell to avoid panic liquidation. I'll try to keep a sizable personal reserve for this purpose, but naturally I don't have an infinite reserve for a real GLBSE catastrophe, such as a major crash event.

I'm hoping that liquidity improves as time goes on and therefore withdrawals will be less of a problem.
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May 31, 2012, 08:57:04 PM
 #14

(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.

Is there any limit to exposure to a single market sector?
For instance, if your algorithm chooses to invest in 10 different pirate bonds you will have less than 20% in any given security but still 100% exposure to Pirates's default.

PGP key (http://pgp.mit.edu:11371/pks/lookup?op=get&search=0x4C31319D069EBADA)
cytokine
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May 31, 2012, 09:05:57 PM
 #15

(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.

Is there any limit to exposure to a single market sector?
For instance, if your algorithm chooses to invest in 10 different pirate bonds you will have less than 20% in any given security but still 100% exposure to Pirates's default.

This is a great point. Right now no, there is no sector filter - but I will definitely consider adding this soon since it's a great idea.

However, regarding Pirate: I have already filtered out all assets that are associated with his operations. If you want pirate exposure, you'll have to invest elsewhere. Nothing against him personally, it's just that I don't know or understand what he is doing.
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June 01, 2012, 04:22:24 AM
 #16

(2) The maximum concentration in any given security is 20%.

Is there any limit to exposure to a single market sector?
For instance, if your algorithm chooses to invest in 10 different pirate bonds you will have less than 20% in any given security but still 100% exposure to Pirates's default.

This is a great point. Right now no, there is no sector filter - but I will definitely consider adding this soon since it's a great idea.

However, regarding Pirate: I have already filtered out all assets that are associated with his operations. If you want pirate exposure, you'll have to invest elsewhere. Nothing against him personally, it's just that I don't know or understand what he is doing.

We plan to be Pirate-free from this week. So MU could be white-listed. Cheesy

cytokine
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June 01, 2012, 04:33:20 AM
 #17

We plan to be Pirate-free from this week. So MU could be white-listed. Cheesy

Yep, MU is definitely something we're looking at. We are absolutely a fund-of-funds when it makes sense to do so.
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June 01, 2012, 04:41:10 AM
 #18

Damn, the only problem I'm having now is that I cannot get price data as far back as I would like from twitter (stupid, stupid twitter Sad).

So I'm not expecting to really be in full-throttle mode until after the first month of operation. That's why I want to start small Smiley.
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June 01, 2012, 07:40:02 PM
 #19

Stochastic has in his thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74711.0) a good collection of historic trading data.

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Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
cytokine
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June 01, 2012, 07:48:57 PM
 #20

Stochastic has in his thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74711.0) a good collection of historic trading data.

Thanks!
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