Finding BTC bottom

[Searing]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic

boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative

whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose

just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this

last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again

vs the dreaded view of it is all a  dead cat bounce to worthlessness

but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow

growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly)

also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in

You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price?

using the chart I posted $350 could be the "return to mean price" but myself I don't think it is done yet I think it more likely to be around $150 before it either goes up again as
a boom/bust cycle again (due to fragility of bitcoin economics) or it really is just a fad and will fade into 'dead cat bounce" territory..which means my friends will find my bitcoin
experiment to have much mirth

so the main difference we have is (hopefully) the bottom before it rebounds vs the alternative (shudder) of it being a fad and we fade into a dead cat bounce..and slow
dribble to oblivion

anyway that is the point of this thread ..where is the bottom I like your price better..but still think it will creep around $150 before all is said and done ..whichever it goes next

as to the rest up/down/sideways/oblivion..I'm more then clueless on that aspect....

there was 30k bought overnight at 300$

I can't see how we can possibly go to 150$

hope you are correct it is all perspective..i got in at $150 usd and it went to 1164 btc or some such 2 months later...from the perspective of 2013 I could not see btc at $350
fall of 2014....so it goes....

well one of us is correct...the alternative of neither of us being correct is bitcoin is a fad and goes the beanie baby route (shudder)

[1715261271]

1715261271

[1715261271]

1715261271

[ivanovasmd]

Anything can happen, 150 is not far fetched... i dont like but but it isnt. Ive been looking at the bitstamp chart of the past days and it shows that $260 and $200 still present decline targets, as well as a long-term ascending channel trendline presently cutting through $170. However, with the way price had settled above $300 earlier today only to be pushed $25 lower (within minutes) due to the onset of heavy selling… any arbitrary low is possible with these centralized exchanges. Hopefully, the last low ($275 on Bitstamp) was low enough for the majority of market participants.

[Biodom]

It is becoming clear that this correction is not finished.
In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business.
In 2011, market price bottomed just before hashing rate had finished its 50% decline.
Since it will take some time and duration for this decline to manifest itself, I predict that it (price bottom) will happen in ~3-4 mo, or even later because large scale miners would have some operational inertia.

As indicative of this, hashing rate increases are slowing to a crawl, but we need at least about ~50% difficulty decrease, which will be achieved if we slowly decline to somewhere between $72 and $240. $72 is somewhat extreme and would correspond to the same decline %%-wise as in 2011, but $240 is quite realistic and would be extremely painful if it will occur slowly.

Having said that, I am not selling my BTC yet because timing this process exactly is beyond my trading abilities.

^^^^Hey, check out my prediction made in October...SOB.
WSJ agrees...in January.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/13/bitbeat-bitcoins-price-mining-hashrate-reflect-unsynchronized-bubbles/

[Melbustus]

...
In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business.
...

Not that this is a big effect, or that I think your analysis is correct (I have no idea), or that I'm representative, but....I will be shutting my miner off once winter's over. It's slightly cash-flow negative right now, but still nets out cheaper than turning the heat on in my office.

[BTCtrader71]

It is becoming clear that this correction is not finished.
In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business.
In 2011, market price bottomed just before hashing rate had finished its 50% decline.
Since it will take some time and duration for this decline to manifest itself, I predict that it (price bottom) will happen in ~3-4 mo, or even later because large scale miners would have some operational inertia.

As indicative of this, hashing rate increases are slowing to a crawl, but we need at least about ~50% difficulty decrease, which will be achieved if we slowly decline to somewhere between $72 and $240. $72 is somewhat extreme and would correspond to the same decline %%-wise as in 2011, but $240 is quite realistic and would be extremely painful if it will occur slowly.

Having said that, I am not selling my BTC yet because timing this process exactly is beyond my trading abilities.

^^^^Hey, check out my prediction made in October...SOB.
WSJ agrees...in January.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/13/bitbeat-bitcoins-price-mining-hashrate-reflect-unsynchronized-bubbles/

The WSJ article makes what I think is an important point, which is that fluctuations in mining and fluctuations in bitcoin price have time delays that cause them to be desynchronized. And the time delays are complex and difficult to analyze. There are time delays between capital investments in mining --> increase in hash rate as equipment comes on line --> coin generation. Everyone likes to point out that miners selling coins on the market will suppress the price, but I have not seen this mentioned very often: money invested in mining equipment today (many months before the investment produces coins that may be sold on the market) is money that otherwise might have been spent purchasing coins today.  So growth in mining is potentially a double whammy: price is suppressed today because money that would have been used today for coins is instead put into capital investment for mining equipment; and price is suppressed tomorrow (figuratively speaking -- more like a year from now) when the resulting coins are sold on the exchanges.